208 resultados para annual
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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Four broad regions of the western United States within which annual streamflows exhibit strong spatial coherence are identified using principal component analysis with a varimax rotation. Geographically, the four regions encompass the Pacific Northwest, Far West-Great Basin, Central Rockies-High Plains, and Northern Great Plains. These regions are really consistent with previously documented, descriptively derived streamflow regimes as well as with general atmospheric circulation and precipitation modes of variation. Collectively, the four regional components account for nearly 63 percent of the total annual variation in western U.S. streamflow. The time history of most principal component patterns exhibit little or no persistence.
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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The variability of mean annual streamflow over the western United States is described and related to indices of large scale atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean and western U.S. Principal component analysis reveal [sic] four statistically significant modes of streamflow variability across the region.
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We estimated the total number of pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata) mothers killed without their calves (“calf deficit”) in all tuna purse-seine sets from 1973– 90 and 1996–2000 in the eastern tropical Pacific. Estimates were based on a tally of the mothers killed as reported by color pattern and gender, several color-pattern-based frequency tables, and a weaning model. Over the time series, there was a decrease in the calf deficit from approximately 2800 for the western-southern stock and 5000 in the northeastern stock to about 60 missing calves per year. The mean deficit per set decreased from approximately 1.5 missing calves per set in the mid-1970s to 0.01 per set in the late-1990s. Over the time series examined, from 75% to 95% of the lactating females killed were killed without a calf. Under the assumption that these orphaned calves did not survive without their mothers, this calf deficit represents an approximately 14% increase in the reported kill of calves, which is relatively constant across the years examined. Because the calf deficit as we have defined it is based on the kill of mothers, the total number of missing calves that we estimate is potentially an underestimate of the actual number killed. Further research on the mechanism by which separation of mother and calf occurs is required to obtain better estimates of the unobserved kill of dolphin calves in this fishery.
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Numerous studies have applied skeletochronology to sea turtle species. Because many of the studies have lacked validation, the application of this technique to sea turtle age estimation has been called into question. To address this concern, we obtained humeri from 13 known-age Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) and two loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtles for the purposes of examining the growth marks and comparing growth mark counts to actual age. We found evidence for annual deposition of growth marks in both these species. Corroborative results were found in Kemp’s ridley sea turtles from a comparison of death date and amount of bone growth following the completion of the last growth mark (n=76). Formation of the lines of arrested growth in Kemp’s ridley sea turtles consistently occurred in the spring for animals that strand dead along the mid- and south U.S. Atlantic coast. For both Kemp’s ridley and loggerhead sea turtles, we also found a proportional allometry between bone growth (humerus dimensions) and somatic growth (straight carapace length), indicating that size-at-age and growth rates can be estimated from dimensions of early growth marks. These results validate skeletochronology as a method for estimating age in Kemp’s ridley and loggerhead sea turtles from the southeast United States.
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Biomass indices, from commercial catch per unit of effort (CPUE) or random trawl surveys, are commonly used in fisheries stock assessments. Uncertainty in such indices, often ex-pressed as a coefficient of variation (CV), has two components: observation error, and annual variation in catchability. Only the former can be estimated directly. As a result, the CVs used for these indices either ignore the annual-variation component or assume a value for it (often implicitly). Two types of data for New Zealand stocks were examined: 48 sets of residuals and catchability estimates from stock assessments using either CPUE or trawl survey indices; and biomass estimates from 17 time series of trawl surveys with between 4 and 25 species per time series. These data show clear evidence of significant annual variation in catchability. With the trawl survey data, catchability was detectably extreme for many species in about one year in six. The assessment data suggest that this annual variability typically has a CV of about 0.2. For commercial CPUE the variability is slightly less, and a typical total CV (including both components) of 0.15 to 0.2. This is much less than the values of 0.3 to 0.35 that have commonly been assumed in New Zealand. Some estimates of catchability are shown to be implausible.
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General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be useful in estimating the ecological impacts of global climatic change. We analyzed seasonal weather patterns over the conterminous United States and determined that regional patterns of rainfall seasonality appear to control the distributions of the Nation's major biomes. These regional patterns were compared to the output from three GCMs for validation. The models appear to simulate the appropriate seasonal climates in the northern tier of states. However, the spatial extent of these regions is distorted. None of the models accurately portrayed rainfall seasonalities in the southern tier of states, where biomes are primarily influenced by the Bermuda High.
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The appendices include the workshop agenda, a list of poster presentations, and a list of attendees.
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Time series analysis methods have traditionally helped in identifying the role of various forcing mechanisms in influencing climate change. A challenge to understanding decadal and century-scale climate change has been that the linkages between climate changes and potential forcing mechanisms such as solar variability are often uncertain. However, most studies have focused on the role of climate forcing and climate response within a strictly linear framework. Nonlinear time series analysis procedures provide the opportunity to analyze the role of climate forcing and climate responses between different time scales of climate change. An example is provided by the possible nonlinear response of paleo-ENSO-scale climate changes as identified from coral records to forcing by the solar cycle at longer time scales.