Southern California's megaflood event of ca. 1605 AD linked to large-scale atmospheric forcing

A distinct, 1- to 2-cm-thick flood deposit found in Santa Barbara Basin with a varve-date of 1605 AD ± 5 years testifies to an intensity of precipitation that remains unmatched for later periods when historical or instrumental records can be compared against the varve record. The 1605 AD ± 5 event correlates well with Enzel's (1992) finding of a Silver Lake playa perennial lake at the terminus of the Mojave River (carbon-14-dated 1560 AD ± 90 years), in relative proximity to the rainfall catchment area draining into Santa Barbara Basin. According to Enzel, such a persistent flooding of the Silver Lake playa occurred only once during the last 3,500 years and required a sequence of floods, each comparable in magnitude to the largest floods in the modern record. To gain confidence in dating of the 1605 AD ± 5 event, we compare Southern California's sedimentary evidence against historical reports and multi-proxy time-series that indicate unusual climatic events or are sensitive to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The emerging pattern supports previous suggestions that the first decade of the 17th century was marked by a rapid cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, with some indications for global coverage. A burst of volcanism and the occurrence of El Nino seem to have contributed to the severity of the events. The synopsis of the 1605 AD ± 5 years flood deposit in Santa Barbara Basin, the substantial freshwater body at Silver Lake playa, and much additional paleoclimatic, global evidence testifies for an equatorward shift of global wind patterns as the world experienced an interval of rapid, intense, and widespread cooling.

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality of fish larvae in the subtropical northcentral Gulf of Mexico: implications for assessing recruitment success

Extensive plankton collections were taken during seven September cruises (1990–93) along the inner continental shelf of the northcentral Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Despite the high productivity and availability of food during these cruises, significant small-scale spatial variability was found in larval growth rates for both Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus chrysurus, Carangidae) and vermilion snapper (Rhomboplites aurorubens, Lutjanidae). The observed variability in larval growth rates was not correlated with changes in water temperature or associated with conspicuous hydrographic features and suggested the existence of less-recognizable regions where conditions for growth vary. Cruise estimates of mortality coefficients (Z) for larval Atlantic bumper (n=32,241 larvae from six cruises) and vermilion snapper (n= 2581 larvae from four cruises) ranged from 0.20 to 0.37 and 0.19 to 0.29, respectively. Even in a subtropical climate like the GOM, where larval-stage durations may be as short as two weeks, observed variability in growth rates, particularly when combined with small changes in mortality rates, can cause order-of-magnitude differences in cumulative larval survival. To what extent the observed differences in growth rates at small spatial scales are fine-scale “noise” that ultimately is smoothed by larger-scale processes is not known. Future research is needed to further characterize the small-scale variability in growth rates of larvae, particularly with regard to microzooplankton patchiness and the temporal and spatial pattern of potential predators. Small-scale spatial variability in larval growth rates may in fact be the norm, and understanding the implications of this subtle mosaic may help us to better evaluate our ability to partition the causes of recruitment variability.

Simulation and diagnosis of large-scale atmospheric moisture and surface hydrology over North America

We describe a preliminary investigation into large-scale atmospheric and surface moisture variations over North America. We compare large-scale hydrologic budgets in the Los Alamos general circulation model (GCM) to observed precipitation and vertically integrated atmospheric moisture fluxes derived from the National Meteorological Center's operational analyses. THe GCM faithfully simulates the integrated flux divergence and P-E differences. However, the integrated moisture content is too low, and precipitation and evaporation are too high. The model produces summertime soil moisture dryness, which supports previous studies showing increased droughts under warmer conditions.

The Younger Dryas and millenial-scale oceanographic variability in the Sulu Sea, tropical western Pacific

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A high resolution, AMS carbon-14-dated sediment record from the Sulu Sea clearly indicates the Younger Dryas climatic event affected the western equatorial Pacific. Presence of the Younger Dryas in the tropical western Pacific indicates this climatic event is not restricted to the North Atlantic nor to high latitudes, but is global in extent.

Semiempirical down-scaling of GCM output to the local scale for temperature, precipitation, and runoff

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An empirically derived multiple linear regression model is used to relate a local-scale dependent variable (either temperature, precipitation, or surface runoff) measured at individual gauging stations to six large-scale independent variables (temperature, precipitation, surface runoff, height to the 500-mbar pressure surface, and the zonal and meridional gradient across this surface). ...The area investigated is the western United States. ... The calibration data set is from 1948 through 1988 and includes data from 268 joint temperature and precipitation stations, 152 streamflow stations (which are converted to runoff data), and 24 gridded 500-mbar pressure height nodes.

Climatological aspects of the large-scale hydrologic cycle in the United States

We describe a 2.5-degree gridpoint atmospheric hydrology/climatology of precipitable water, precipitation, atmospheric moisture convergence, and a residual evaporation or evapotranspiration for the coterminous United States. We also describe a large-scale surface hydrology/climatology of a residual soil moisture, streamflow divergence, or runoff, as well as precipitation and evaporation. Annual and seasonal means and interrelationships among various components of the hydrologic cycles are discussed.