Climatic effects on flood frequency: an example from southern Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): After 1960, the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, an ephemeral stream normally dominated by summer floods, experienced an apparent increased frequency of flooding coincident with an increased percentage of annual floods occurring in fall and winter. This shift reflects large-scale and low-frequency changes in the eastern Pacific Ocean, in part associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. ... Questions are raised about the validity of standard methods of flood-frequency analysis to estimate regulatory and designed floods.

Interpreting long-term fish landings records: environment and/or exploitation?

The California Department of Fish and Game data base of California commercial fish landings for the period 1928 to 1985 has been assembled in computer accessible form at the Pacific Fisheries Environmental Group in Monterey, California. Time series for fishes whose landings are known to vary during periods of ocean warming were compared to time series of sea surface temperature. Expected patterns of variation were confirmed in the seasonal cycle, but were less clear on the interannual scale. When interannual variation was considered, the most serious hindrance to interpretation of the landings series appeared to be the continued reduction of the fish stocks due to commercial exploitation; other factors are discussed. Landings data contain information potentially useful in climatological studies, but problems should be anticipated in their use.

Solar-cycle modulations of ENSO: a possible source of climatic change

An association between long-term changes in the solar cycle and the frequency of El Niño events has been identified in historical records of El Niño and sunspot number. Although no known mechanism can explain the apparent relationship, the association is strong. A possible coupling between the sun and the ocean's mixed layer, involving ENSO, is worthy of further study.

Rapid δ18O and δ13C isotopic shifts in late Pleistocene marine varves on the California margin

Upper Pleistocene sediments on the continental slope off Northern California contain alternations of varves and bioturbation produced by fluctuations in intensity of the coastal upwelling system. Stable isotopic analyses of benthic Foraminifera across a particularly well developed varve/bioturbation sequence deposited ~26,000 years ago reveal rapid shifts of ~0.25‰ in δ18O and ~0.4‰ in δ13C. The δ18O shift occurs within a varved section. Based on varve counts, the isotopic change occurred in less than 100 years. Timing and magnitude of the shift coincide with similar shifts observed in almost all other high-resolution δ18O records that have been interpreted as primarily representing global in-volume fluctuations.

El Niño reconstructions and confirmation of a pan-Californian model via Radiolarian evidence

Radiolarian number and/or flux rates extracted from Holocene and fossil sediments are used to help detect the presence of, type of (weak or strong), and exact location of the depocenter under an El Niño. These data, along with known provenances of certain radiolarians, support an earlier model that suggests a weak El Niño is a northern and coupled expression of a more southerly strong component dominated by eastern tropical Pacific water underlain by California current and gyre water.

Sediment flux at selected coastal sites: proposed time series measurment by particle traps

Particle flux in the ocean reflects ongoing biological and geological processes operating under the influence of the local environment. Estimation of this particle flux through sediment trap deployment is constrained by sampler accuracy, particle preservation, and swimmer distortion. Interpretation of specific particle flux is further constrained by indeterminate particle dispersion and the absence of a clear understanding of the sedimentary consequences of ecosystem activity. Nevertheless, the continuous and integrative properties of the particle trap measure, along with the logistic advantage of a long-term moored sampler, provide a set of strategic advantages that appear analogous to those underlying conventional oceanographic survey programs. Emboldened by this perception, several stations along the coast of Southern California and Mexico have been targeted as coastal ocean flux sites (COFS).

Climatic changes reflected in laminated Santa Barbara Basin sediments

Dating of annually varved sediments of Santa Barbara Basin down to AD 1650 in absence of precise radiometric methods was achieved by (1) counting varves and determining mean annual sedimentation rates from x-radiographs, and (2) correlation with historical rainfall and tree-ring records.

A pollen/dinoflagellate chronology for DSDP Site 480, Gulf of California

DSDP Site 480 in the Gulf of California represents a paleoclimatic record of great potential significance. Much of the 152-meter section is varved, which means that proxy records of climatic change can be analyzed with unusual precision on a variety of time scales. In this paper we present pollen and dinoflagellate evidence that suggests that the base of the section is much older than was previously thought. We propose a basal date of between 300,000 and 350,000 YBP.

Can a climate record be extracted from giant sequoia tree rings?

Extreme low growth events in giant sequoia ring-width index series coincide with severe droughts in the San Joaquin drainage, on whose eastern flank the sequoia groves stand. Comparison with a network of 102 largely moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies from western North America suggests that this relationship has been stable for at least 380 years. The twentieth century is not unusual in the frequency of these events. We expect the growth record will soon be replicated for over 2000 years at two locations.

Interactions between climatic variables controlling subalpine tree growth: implications for climatic history of the Sierra Nevada, California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Tree-ring records from foxtail pine (Pinus balfouriana) and western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) growing near tree line in the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, show strong correlations with summer temperature and winter precipitation. Response surfaces portraying tree growth as a function of summer temperature and winter precipitation indicate a strong interaction between these variables in controlling growth. ... Above average growth for both foxtail pine and western juniper from AD 1480 to 1570 can be interpreted as indicating an extended period of warm, moist conditions unequalled during the 20th century.

Holocene fossil pollen records of Douglas fir in northwestern California: reconstruction of past climate

Douglas fir is one of the most important trees in northwestern California. Regional pollen records suggest that it has become prominent only in the late Holocene. The primary cause for this change is probably southward stabilization of the mean airstream.

Inferences from tree rings on low frequency variations in runoff in the interior western United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Low frequency variations in runoff, AD 1700-1964, in the interior western United States are inferred from smoothed tree-ring series averaged over north, central, and south regions. ... Relative locations of peaks and troughs in streamflow, precipitation, temperature, and tree-ring series suggest that annual precipitation and warm season evapotranspiration variations may both be important to low frequency fluctuations in tree growth and in streamflow.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena and forest fires in the southwestern United States

Fire statistics (area burned) and fire-scar chronologies from tree rings show reduced fire activity during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in forests of Arizona and New Mexico. This relationship probably stems from increased fuel moisture after a wet winter and spring, but also could involve climatic controls on lightning activity at the onset of the monsoon season.

Tropical and subtropical moisture and southerly displaced North Pacific storm track: factors in the growth of late Quaternary lakes in the Mojave Desert

Historical flood events produced lakes in the Mojave River watershed in southeastern California and represent climatic conditions similar to those in the late Quaternary when perennial lakes formed in the Mojave Desert. Historical lakes are related to tropical and subtropical sources of moisture and an extreme southward shift of storm tracks. It is suggested that this atmospheric pattern occurred frequently during earlier periods with perennial lakes in the Mojave River drainage basin.

Holocene history of the El Niño phenomenon as recorded in flood sediments of northern coastal Peru

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The Holocene history of flooding in northern coastal Peru is believed to be a proxy record for the El Niño phenomenon. A recently completed set of 30 radiocarbon dates on overbank flood deposits and a tsunami deposit from the Casma region (Figure 1 and Table 1) establishes a chronology for the largest events that have occurred during the last 3500 years. ... The data presented here indicate that events much larger than the one in 1982-1983 may occur with a frequency of about once every 1000 years.