Changes In Submersed Macrophytes In Relation To Tidal Storm Surges

We analyzed long-term submersed macrophyte presence-absence data collected from 15 stations in Kings Bay/Crystal River, Florida in relation to three major storm events. The percent occurrence of most species declined immediately after storm events but the recovery pattern after the storm differed among species. Hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata (L.F.) Royle)and Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) exhibited differing recolonization behaviors. Eurasian watermilfoil recolonized quickly after storms but declined in abundance as hydrilla began to increase in abundance. Natural catastrophic events restructure submersed macrophyte communities by eliminating the dominate species, and allowing revegetation and restructuring of communities. Tidal surges may also act to maintain species diversity in the system. In addition, catastrophic events remove dense nuisance plant growth for several years, altering the public's perception of the nuisance plant problem of Kings Bay/Crystal River.

Changes In Submersed Macrophytes In Relation To Tidal Storm Surges

We analyzed long-term submersed macrophyte presence-absence data collected from 15 stations in Kings Bay/Crystal River, Florida in relation to three major storm events. The percent occurrence of most species declined immediately after storm events but the recovery pattern after the storm differed among species. Hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata (L.F.) Royle)and Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) exhibited differing recolonization behaviors. Eurasian watermilfoil recolonized quickly after storms but declined in abundance as hydrilla began to increase in abundance. Natural catastrophic events restructure submersed macrophyte communities by eliminating the dominate species, and allowing revegetation and restructuring of communities. Tidal surges may also act to maintain species diversity in the system. In addition, catastrophic events remove dense nuisance plant growth for several years, altering the public's perception of the nuisance plant problem of Kings Bay/Crystal River.

Some effects of tropical storm Agnes on water quality in the Patuxent River estuary

A post Agnes study emphasizing environmental factors...weekly sampling at eight stations from 28 June to August 30, 1972. Spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of many factors, e.g., salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), seston, particulate carbon and nitrogen, inorganic and organic fractions of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus, and chlorophyll a were studied and compared to earlier extensive records. Patterns shown by the present data were compared especially with a local heavy storm that occurred in the Patuxent drainage basin during July 1963. Some interesting correlations were observed in the data. (PDF has 39 pages.)

Assessing societal vulnerability of U.S. Pacific Northwest communities to storm induced coastal change

Progressive increases in storm intensities and extreme wave heights have been documented along the U.S. West Coast. Paired with global sea level rise and the potential for an increase in El Niño occurrences, these trends have substantial implications for the vulnerability of coastal communities to natural coastal hazards. Community vulnerability to hazards is characterized by the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of human-environmental systems that influence potential impacts. To demonstrate how societal vulnerability to coastal hazards varies with both physical and social factors, we compared community exposure and sensitivity to storm-induced coastal change scenarios in Tillamook (Oregon) and Pacific (Washington) Counties. While both are backed by low-lying coastal dunes, communities in these two counties have experienced different shoreline change histories and have chosen to use the adjacent land in different ways. Therefore, community vulnerability varies significantly between the two counties. Identifying the reasons for this variability can help land-use managers make decisions to increase community resilience and reduce vulnerability in spite of a changing climate. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity

Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found in Landsea et al. 2006. The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Tropical and subtropical moisture and southerly displaced North Pacific storm track: factors in the growth of late Quaternary lakes in the Mojave Desert

Historical flood events produced lakes in the Mojave River watershed in southeastern California and represent climatic conditions similar to those in the late Quaternary when perennial lakes formed in the Mojave Desert. Historical lakes are related to tropical and subtropical sources of moisture and an extreme southward shift of storm tracks. It is suggested that this atmospheric pattern occurred frequently during earlier periods with perennial lakes in the Mojave River drainage basin.

Flood of September 20-23, 1969 in the Gadsden County area, Florida

The center of low pressure of a tropical disturbance which moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico, reached land between Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida, on September 20, 1969. This system was nearly stationary for 48 hours producing heavy rainfall in the Quincy-Havana area, 70-80 miles northeast of the center. Rainfall associated with the tropical disturbance exceeded 20 inches over a part of Gadsden County, Florida, during September 20 through 23, 1969, and the maximum rainfall of record occurred at Quincy with 10.87 inches during a 6-hour period on September 21. The 48-hour maximum of 17.71 inches exceeded the 1 in 100-year probability of 16 inches for a 7-day period. The previous maximum rainfall of record at Quincy (more than 12 inches) was on September 14-15, 1924. The characteristics of this historical storm were similar in path and effect to the September 1969 tropical disturbance. Peak runoff from a 1.4-square mile area near Midway, Florida, was 1,540 cfs (cubic feet per second) per square mile. A peak discharge of 45,600 cfs on September 22 at the gaging station on the Little River near Quincy exceeded the previous peak of 25,400 cfs which occurred on December 4, 1964. The peak discharge of 89,400 cfs at Ochlockonee River near Bloxham exceeded the April 1948 peak of 50,200 cfs, which was the previous maximum of record, by 1.8 times. Many flood-measurement sites had peak discharges in excess of that of a 50-year flood. Nearly $200,000 was spent on emergency repairs to roads. An additional $520,000 in contractual work was required to replace four bridges that were destroyed. Agricultural losses were estimated at $1,000,000. (44 page document)

Shoreline erosion due to extreme storms and sea level rise

A summary is presented of research conducted on beach erosion associated with extreme storms and sea level rise. These results were developed by the author and graduate students under sponsorship of the University of Delaware Sea Grant Program. Various shoreline response problems of engineering interest are examined. The basis for the approach is a monotonic equilibrium profile of the form h = Ax2 /3 in which h is water depth at a distance x from the shoreline and A is a scale parameter depending primarily on sediment characteristics and secondarily on wave characteristics. This form is shown to be consistent with uniform wave energy dissipation per unit volume. The dependency of A on sediment size is quantified through laboratory and field data. Quasi-static beach response is examined to represent the effect of sea level rise. Cases considered include natural and seawalled profiles. To represent response to storms of realistic durations, a model is proposed in which the offshore transport is proportional to the "excess" energy dissipation per unit volume. The single rate constant in this model was evaluated based on large scale wave tank tests and confirmed with Hurricane Eloise pre- and post-storm surveys. It is shown that most hurricanes only cause 10% to 25% of the erosion potential associated with the peak storm tide and wave conditions. Additional applications include profile response employing a fairly realistic breaking model in which longshore bars are formed and long-term (500 years) Monte Carlo simulation including the contributions due to sea level rise and random storm occurrences. (PDF has 67 pages.)

Some considerations on coastal processes relevant to sea level rise

The effects of potential sea level rise on the shoreline and shore environment have been briefly examined by considering the interactions between sea level rise and relevant coastal processes. These interactions have been reviewed beginning with a discussion of the need to reanalyze previous estimates of eustatic sea level rise and compaction effects in water level measurement. This is followed by considerations on sea level effects on coastal and estuarine tidal ranges, storm surge and water level response, and interaction with natural and constructed shoreline features. The desirability to reevaluate the well known Bruun Rule for estimating shoreline recession has been noted. The mechanics of ground and surface water intrusion with reference to sea level rise are then reviewed. This is followed by sedimentary processes in the estuaries including wetland response. Finally comments are included on some probable effects of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems. These interactions are complex and lead to shoreline evolution (under a sea level rise) which is highly site-specific. Models which determine shoreline change on the basis of inundation of terrestrial topography without considering relevant coastal processes are likely to lead to erroneous shoreline scenarios, particularly where the shoreline is composed of erodible sedimentary material. With some exceptions, present day knowledge of shoreline response to hydrodynamic forcing is inadequate for long-term quantitative predictions. A series of interrelated basic and applied research issues must be addressed in the coming decades to determine shoreline response to sea level change with an acceptable degree of confidence. (PDF contains 189 pages.)

Flood of June 9, 1957, at Perry, Florida

Floods occurred on streams in the vicinity of Perry, Taylor County, Florida, on June 9, 1957, as a result of heavy rains from atropical disturbance. Serious flooding occurred in Perry along Spring and Pimple creeks as outlined by the shaded area in figure 1, requiring the evacuation of about ZOO families from the lowland area. No loss of life was reported. The damages to residential and commercial properties were estimated at several million dollars. Most of the damage was confined to residential areas (fig. 2); however, several stores in the area were damaged by flood waters (fig. 3). This report presents data pertaining to the rainfall accompanying this storm and peak flows of Spring and Pimple creeks in Perry. It contains flood elevations at several points, and peak discharges of the two creeks flowing through Perry. The report also contains a discussion of the rainfall associated with the flood and a description of the general features of the flood. (PDF contains 16 pages.)

Some effects of Hurricane Agnes on water quality in the Patuxent River Estuary

A post-Agnes study that emphasized environmental factors was carried out on the Patuxent River estuary with weekly sampling at eight stations from 28 June t o 30 August 1972. Spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of many factors , e.g., salinity , dissolved oxygen, seston, particulate carbon and nitrogen, inorganic and organic fractions of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus, and chlorophyll a were studied and compared t o extensive earlier records. Patterns shown by the present data were compared especially with a local heavy storm that occurred in the Patuxent drainage basin during July 1969. Estimates were made of the amounts of material contributed via upland drainage. A first approximation indicated that 14.8 x l0 (3) metric tons of seston were contributed t o the head of the estuary between 21 and 24 June. (PDF contains 46 pages)

Using forecasts to protect Federal facilities in the path of Hurricane Isabel

Hurricane Isabel made landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane on 18 September 2003, on the North Carolina Outer Banks between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras, then coursed northwestward through Pamlico Sound and west of Chesapeake Bay where it downgraded to a tropical storm. Wind damage on the west and southwest shores of Pamlico Sound and the western shore of Chesapeake Bay was moderate, but major damage resulted from the storm tide. The NOAA, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Sciences, Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research at Beaufort, North Carolina and the Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomedical Research Branch at Oxford, Maryland have hurricane preparedness plans in place. These plans call for tropical storms and hurricanes to be tracked carefully through NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) watches, warnings, and advisories. When a hurricane watch changes to a hurricane warning for the areas of Beaufort or Oxford, documented hurricane preparation plans are activated. Isabel exacted some wind damage at both Beaufort and Oxford. Storm tide caused damage at Oxford, where area-wide flooding isolated the laboratory for many hours. Storm tide also caused damage at Beaufort. Because of their geographic locations on or near the open ocean (Beaufort) or on or near large estuaries (Beaufort and Oxford), storm tide poses a major threat to these NOAA facilities and the safety of federal employees. Damage from storm surge and windblown water depends on the track and intensity of a storm. One tool used to predict storm surge is the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model of the NWS, which provides valuable surge forecasts that aid in hurricane preparation.

Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)