The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Human activities and interests within and around lakes of the Victoria and Kyoga basin and their consequences to sustainable fish production

Of all the great lakes, Lake Victoria has the highest population concentration on its fringes. This has resulted into serious human impacts on the ecosystem through intense agricultural activities (cultivation, livestock and over fishing), sporadic settlements, urbanization and industrial establishments. The consequences have been loss of animals and plant life, deforestation and general land degradation, pollution, loss of water quality and clean air. Aquatic life has become endangered and less guaranteeing to continued fish production. Awareness workshops and general talks have been done to a few selected communities by the lakes landing sites and in the catchment area to mitigate the deteriorating environmental conditions. Naturally the situation calls for reversal to the increasing stress of the ecosystem. As a result, every water body surveyed put forward some mitigation suggestions

Population Characteristics of Largemouth Bass Associated with Changes in Abundance of Submersed Aquatic Vegetation in Lake Seminole, Georgia

Population characteristics of largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides L.) including growth, body condition (relative weight), survival, and egg production were examined in relation to abundance of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) coverage (primarily hydrilla [ Hydrilla verticillata L.f. Royle]) in three embayments of Lake Seminole, GA, and compared to a previous study conducted in 1998. (PDF has 8 pages.)

Population Dynamics of Cyrtobagous salviniae on Common Salvinia in South Florida

Common salvinia (Salvinia minima Baker) is an exotic floating fern that has been in the U.S. from at least 1928(Small 1931). Its pest status in Florida is less clear perhaps due to the presence of the specialized herbivore Cyrtobagous salviniae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Our objective was to sample populations of adult C. salviniae in south Florida in order to assess temporal abundance and estimate density on common salvinia. (PDF has 4 pages.)

The Use of Herbicides to Control Hydrilla and the Effects on Young Largemouth Bass Population Characteristics and Aquatic Vegetation in Lake Seminole, Georgia

From 1997 to 2003, we examined the impacts of two aquatic herbicides, fluridone (Sonar; 1-methyl-3-phenyl-5-[3-(trifluromethl) phenyl]-4(1H)-pyridinone), and dipotassium salt of endothall (Aquathol K; 7-oxabicyclo[2.2.1]heptane-2,3-dicarboxylic acid), used to control dense hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata L. f. Royle), on population characteristics of juvenile largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides Lacepede) in small coves (<10 ha) in Lake Seminole, Georgia. In addition, we estimated areal coverage and species composition of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) communities in each cove. Fish and plants were sampled in both control (hydrilla infested)and herbicide treated coves in November and March- April each year. Electrofishing catch-per-effort for both number and weight of age-0 and age-1 fish for the 1997 to 2002 year classes was either the same or higher (p < 0.05) in herbicide treated than in control coves. Age-0 fish were larger (p <0.05) in treated, than in control coves in November, but at age-1 in the following spring, fish were slightly longer (p <0.05) in the control coves. Higher age-0 catches were associated with greater percent reductions in numeric catch between age-0 and age-1 and reduced lengths of fish in November indicating density-dependent effects. Age-0 fish lengths were also negatively correlated to percent cover of both total and native SAV. Total or native SAV coverages were not associated with catch-per-unit effort for number and weight, but nearly all control and herbicide treated coves had total SAV coverage greater than 40%. Applications of both Sonar and Aquathol K reduced total SAV coverage and hydrilla, permitted the establishment of native SAVs, and had either neutral or positive impacts on young largemouth bass in small coves in Lake Seminole. (PDF contains 7 pages.)

Do tissue carbon and nitrogen limit population growth of weevils introduced to control waterhyacinth at a site in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California?

Waterhyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes(Mart.) Solms), is a serious problem in the Sacramento Delta. Two weevil species (Neochetina bruchi Hustache and N. eichhorniae Warner) have been introduced as biological control agents. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that nitrogen (N) in the tissue of waterhyacinth was not sufficient to support weevil growth and reproduction. Because it grows better on plants with high N content and because it has a greater impact on the growth of high N plants, N. bruchi may be a more effective biological control agent in the Sacramento Delta.

The influence of disparate levels of submersed aquatic vegetation on largemouth bass population characteristics in a Georgia reservoir

Population characteristics of largemouth bass (Micropterous salmoides L.) including growth, body condition (relative weight), size structure, survival, and fecundity were examined in relation to abundance of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) coverage (primarily hydrilla Hydrilla verticillata L.f. Royle) in three major embayments of Lake Seminole, Georgia. Relative weight, fecundity, and growth of large-mouth bass in the Spring Creek embayment (76% areal SAV coverage) was considerably less than measured in the Chattahoochee and Flint river arms that contained lower SAV coverages (26% and 32%). It took fish 1.8 years longer to reach 406 mm in Spring Creek compared to the Chattahoochee-Flint arms. Consequently, fish were smaller in Spring Creek than in the Chattahoochee-Flint arms. In addition, due to slower growth rates and lower fecundity-to-body weight relation, we predicted a 47% reduction in total potential ova production in Spring Creek compared to the other two reservoir embayments. The annual survival rate of 3 to 10 year old largemouth bass was higher in Spring Creek (84%) than in the Chattahoochee-Flint arms (72%) and suggested either lower harvest and/or lower accessibility of particularly larger fish to angling in dense vegetation. Contrary to our expectaions, the fit between number-at-age and age in a catch-curve regression was weaker for fish collected in Spring Creek and suggested greater recruitment variability has occurred over time in this highly vegetated embayment. In Lake Seminole, spatial differences in largemouth bass population characterstics were associated with disparate levels of SAV. Our data suggest that a reduction in hydrilla, but maintenance of an intermediate level of SAV in Spring Creek, should improve largermouth bass population in this arm of the reservoir.

Population response of triploid grass carp to declining levels of hydrilla in the Santee Cooper Reservoirs, South Carolina

Approximately 768,500 triploid grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella Valenciennes) were stocked into the Santee Cooper reservoirs, South Carolina between 1989 and 1996 to control hydrilla ( Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.) Royle). Hydrilla coverage was reduced from a high of 17,272 ha during 1994 to a few ha by 1998. During 1997, 1998 and 1999, at least 98 triploid grass carp were collected yearly for population monitoring. Estimates of age, growth, and mortality, as well as population models, were used in the study to monitor triploid grass carp and predict population trends. Condition declined from that measured during a previous study in 1994. The annual mortality rate was estimated at 28% in 1997, 32% in 1998 and 39% in 1999; however, only the 1999 mortality rate was significantly different. Few (2 out of 98) of the triploid grass carp collected during 1999 were older than age 9. We expect increased mortality due to an aging population and sparse hydrilla coverage. During 1999, we estimated about 63,000 triploid grass carp system wide and project less than 3,000 fish by 2004, assuming no future stocking. management, population size Ctenopharyngodon idella, Hydrilla

Toxic pollutants, health indices and population dynamics of Harbor Seals in San Francisco Bay, 1989-1992

(PDF contains 300 pages)

Ongoing monitoring of Tortugas Ecological Reserve: Assessing the consequences of reserve designation

Over the past five years, a biogeographic characterization of Tortugas Ecological Reserve(TER) has been carried out to measure the post-implementation effects of TER as a refuge for exploited species. Our results demonstrate that there is substantial microalgal biomass at depths between 10 and 30 m in the soft sediments at the coral reef interface, and that this community may play an important role in the food web supporting reef organisms. In addition, preliminary stable isotope data, in conjunction with prior results from the west Florida shelf, suggest that the shallow water benthic habitats surrounding the coral reefs of TER will prove to be an important source of the primary production ultimately fueling fish production throughout TER. The majority of the fish analyzed so far have exhibited a C isotope signature consistent with a food web which relies heavily on benthic primary production. Fish counts indicate a marked increase in the abundance of large fish (>20 cm) within the Reserve relative to the Out and Park strata, across years. Faunal collections from open and protected soft bottom habitat near the northern boundary of Tortugas North strongly suggest that relaxation of trawling pressure has increased benthic biomass and diversity in this area of TER. These data, employing an integrated Before - After Control Impact (BACI) design at multiple spatial scales, will allow us to continue to document and quantify the post-implementation effects of TER. (PDF contains 58 pages)

Population assessment of two stocks of white grunt, Haemulon plumieri, from the southeastern coast of the United States

Changes in the age structure and population size of white grunt, Haemulon plumieri, from North Carolina through the Florida Keys were examined using records of landings and size frequencies of fish from commercial, re~reational, and headboat fisheries from 1986-1998. Data were stratified into two geographical areas: North Carolina and South Carolina; and southeast Florida. Population size in numbers at age was estimated for each year and geographical area by applying an uncalibrated separable virtual population analysis (SVPA) to the landings in numbers at age. A calibrated virtual population analysis, FADAPT, was also run for data from North Carolina and South Carolina. SVPA and FADAPT were used to estimate annual, age-specific fishing mortality (F) for four levels of natural mortality (M = 0.20, 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35). The best estimate of M for white grunt is 0.30. Landings of white grunt in the Carolinas for the three fisheries have generally decreased in recent years, but have held fairly steady for the species in southeast Florida. Age at entry and age at full recruitment were age-1 and age-4 for the Carolinas, and age-l and age-3 for southeast Florida. With M = 0.30, levels of fishing mortality (F) on the fully-recruited ages were 0.23 for the Carolinas and 0.33 for southeast Florida. Spawning potential ratio (SPR) at M = 0.30 was 57% for the Carolinas and 61% for southeast Florida, which indicates that the species, by definition, has not been over-exploited by fishing. The results of this assessment of the white grunt population off the Carolinas agree with the recent F/FMSY analysis of white grunt (Anonymous, 1999). (PDF contaons 72 pages)

Impact of the commercial fishery on the population of bait shrimp (Penaeus spp.) in Biscayne Bay, 1986

Monthly population size of bait shrimp in the Bay was estimated from December 1984 to July 1985. Growth rates for male and female P. duorarum showed that pink shrimp exhibit a mean residence time in the nursery area (Biscayne Bay) of approximately 21 weeks. Monthly mortality rates were determined for each sex of pink shrimp. It was estimated that 23% and 26% of the male and female monthly population size, respectively, was absorbed by both the fishery and ecosystem monthly. Monthly proportion of the standing stock expected to die exclusively through fishing was 6.5% and 6.0% for males and females respectively. Estimates of emigration rates showed that approximately 4.0% of the population was lost from the Bay system each month. This surplus production was about 50% of the average monthly catch by the fleet. Fishing mortality represents only 8 - 9% of the losses to the shrimp population. The biggest source of loss is emigration, suggesting that most shrimp beyond the size at recruitment (to the fishery) are not utilized for food while in the Bay. Thus, it appears that the direct impact of the fishery on the bait shrimp population is relatively small. (PDF contains 46 pages)

Population assessment of the vermilion snapper, Rhomboplites aurorubens, from the Southeastern United States

Changes in the age structure and population size of vermilion snapper, Rhornboplites aurorubens, from North Carolina through the Florida Keys were examined using records of landings and size frequencies of fish from commercial, recreational, and headboat fisheries from 1986-1996. Population size in numbers at age was estimated for each year by applying separable virtual population analysis (SVPA) to the landings in numbers at age. SVPA was used to estimate annual, age-specific fishing mortality (F) for four levels of natural mortality (M = 0.20, 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35). Although landings of vermilion snapper for the three fisheries have declined, minimum fish size regulations have resulted in an increase in the mean size of fish landed. Age at entry and age at full recruitment were age-1 andage-3 fDr 1986-1991, compared with age-1 and age-4, respectively, for 1992-1996. Levels of mortality from fishing (F) ranged from 0.38 - 0.61 for the entire period. Current spawning potential ratio (SPR) is 21% or 27% depending on the natural mortality estimate. SPR could be raised to 30% or 40% with a reduction in F, or by increasing the age at entry to the fisheries. The latter could be enhanced now if fishermen, particularly recreational, comply with minimum size regulations. However, released fish mortality, modeled in the assessment at 27%, will continue to make the achievement of 30% and 40% SPR more difficult. (PDF contains 63 pages)

Caribbean connectivity: implications for Marine Protected Area Management. Proceedings of a Special Symposium, 9-11 November 2006, 59th Annual Meeting of the Gulf and Caribbean Fisheries Institute, Belize City, Belize

Executive Summary: Tropical marine ecosystems in the Caribbean region are inextricably linked through the movement of pollutants, nutrients, diseases, and other stressors, which threaten to further degrade coral reef communities. The magnitude of change that is occurring within the region is considerable, and solutions will require investigating pros and cons of networks of marine protected areas (MPAs), cooperation of neighboring countries, improved understanding of how external stressors degrade local marine resources, and ameliorating those stressors. Connectivity can be broadly defined as the exchange of materials (e.g., nutrients and pollutants), organisms, and genes and can be divided into: 1) genetic or evolutionary connectivity that concerns the exchange of organisms and genes, 2) demographic connectivity, which is the exchange of individuals among local groups, and 3) oceanographic connectivity, which includes flow of materials and circulation patterns and variability that underpin much of all these exchanges. Presently, we understand little about connectivity at specific locations beyond model outputs, and yet we must manage MPAs with connectivity in mind. A key to successful MPA management is how to most effectively work with scientists to acquire the information managers need. Oceanography connectivity is poorly understood, and even less is known about the shape of the dispersal curve for most species. Dispersal kernels differ for various systems, species, and life histories and are likely highly variable in space and time. Furthermore, the implications of different dispersal kernels on population dynamics and management of species is unknown. However, small dispersal kernels are the norm - not the exception. Linking patterns of dispersal to management options is difficult given the present state of knowledge. The behavioral component of larval dispersal has a major impact on where larvae settle. Individual larval behavior and life history details are required to produce meaningful simulations of population connectivity. Biological inputs are critical determinants of dispersal outcomes beyond what can be gleaned from models of passive dispersal. There is considerable temporal and spatial variation to connectivity patterns. New models are increasingly being developed, but these must be validated to understand upstream-downstream neighborhoods, dispersal corridors, stepping stones, and source/sink dynamics. At present, models are mainly useful for providing generalities and generating hypotheses. Low-technology approaches such as drifter vials and oceanographic drogues are useful, affordable options for understanding local connectivity. The “silver bullet” approach to MPA design may not be possible for several reasons. Genetic connectivity studies reveal divergent population genetic structures despite similar larval life histories. Historical stochasticity in reproduction and/or recruitment likely has important, longlasting consequences on present day genetic structure. (PDF has 200 pages.)

A study of measures of population density and of concentration of fishing effort in the fishery for yellowfin tuna, Neothunnus macropterus, in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, from 1951 to 1956

ENGLISH: This study shows how the catch and effort statistics, from 1951 to 1956, of the fishery for yellowfin tuna, Neothunnus macropterus, in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, have been used to compute: (i) two indices of average population density; (ii) an index of concentration of effort on areas of greatest density of available yellowfin. These three indices were then used to determine: (i) quarterly and annual variation in each of them; (ii) the relationship between the two indices of density; (iii) the relationship of each of the indices to the number of exploited one-degree rectangles. To remove extreme sampling variation at low levels of effort, the data from all one-degree rectangles subjected to less than five logged days' fishing in a quarter were eliminated, and the computations were repeated for comparison with those of the original data. SPANISH: Este estudio da a conocer cómo las estadísticas sobre la pesca y el esfuerzo de pesca de la pesquería del atún aleta amarilla, Neothunnus macropterus, en el Océano Pacífico Oriental Tropical, durante 1951 a 1956, han servido para computar: (i) dos índices del promedio de la densidad de la población; (ií) un índice de la concentración del esfuerzo en las áreas de mayor densidad de atún aleta amarilla disponible. Estos tres índices han sido luego usados para determinar: (i) la variación trimestral y anual en cada uno de ellos; (ií) la relación entre los dos índices de densidad; (iii) la relación de cada uno de los índices con el número de rectángulos de un grado explotados. Para evitar la extrema variación del muestreo a bajos niveles de esfuerzo, se eliminaron los datos de todos los rectángulos de un grado sujetos a menos de cinco días de actividad pesquera durante un trimestre según los registros de los cuadernos de bitácora, y las computaciones se repitieron para compararlas con las de los datos originales.