Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

A bioregional classification of the continental shelf of northeastern North America for conservation analysis and planning based on representation

Understanding how well National Marine Sanctuaries and other marine protected areas represent the diversity of species present within and among the biogeographic regions where they occur is essential for assessing their conservation value and identifying gaps in the protection of biological diversity. One of the first steps in any such assessment should be the development of clearly defined and scientifically justified planning boundaries representing distinct oceanographic conditions and faunal assemblages. Here, we propose a set of boundaries for the continental shelf of northeastern North America defined by subdivisions of the Eastern Temperate Province, based on a review and synthesis (i.e. meta-analysis) of the scientific literature. According to this review, the Eastern Temperate Province is generally divided into the Acadian and Virginian Subprovinces. Broad agreement places the Scotian Shelf, Gulf of Maine, and Bay of Fundy within the Acadian Subprovince. The proper association of Georges Bank is less clear; some investigators consider it part of the Acadian and others part of the Virginian. Disparate perspectives emerge from the analysis of different groups of organisms. Further, while some studies suggest a distinction between the Southern New England shelf and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic Bight, others describe the region as a broad transition zone with no unique characteristics of its own. We suggest there exists sufficient evidence to consider the Scotian Shelf, Gulf of Maine, Georges Bank, Southern New England, and Southern Mid-Atlantic Bight as distinct biogeographic regions from a conservation planning perspective, and present a set of proposed mapped boundaries. (PDF contains 23 pages.)

Survey report of NOAA Ship McArthur II cruises AR-04-04, AR-05-05 and AR-06-03: Habitat classification of side scan sonar imagery in support of deep-sea coral/sponge explorations at the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary

Habitat mapping and characterization has been defined as a high-priority management issue for the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS), especially for poorly known deep-sea habitats that may be sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance. As a result, a team of scientists from OCNMS, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), and other partnering institutions initiated a series of surveys to assess the distribution of deep-sea coral/sponge assemblages within the sanctuary and to look for evidence of potential anthropogenic impacts in these critical habitats. Initial results indicated that remotely delineating areas of hard bottom substrate through acoustic sensing could be a useful tool to increase the efficiency and success of subsequent ROV-based surveys of the associated deep-sea fauna. Accordingly, side scan sonar surveys were conducted in May 2004, June 2005, and April 2006 aboard the NOAA Ship McArthur II to: (1) obtain additional imagery of the seafloor for broader habitat-mapping coverage of sanctuary waters, and (2) help delineate suitable deep-sea coral/sponge habitat, in areas of both high and low commercial-fishing activities, to serve as sites for surveying-in more detail using an ROV on subsequent cruises. Several regions of the sea floor throughout the OCNMS were surveyed and mosaicked at 1-meter pixel resolution. Imagery from the side scan sonar mapping efforts was integrated with other complementary data from a towed camera sled, ROVs, sedimentary samples, and bathymetry records to describe geological and biological (where possible) aspects of habitat. Using a hierarchical deep-water marine benthic classification scheme (Greene et al. 1999), we created a preliminary map of various habitat polygon features for use in a geographical information system (GIS). This report provides a description of the mapping and groundtruthing efforts as well as results of the image classification procedure for each of the areas surveyed. (PDF contains 60 pages.)

Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary Habitat Mapping: Survey report and classification of side scan sonar data from surveys HMPR-114-2004-02 and HMPR-116-2005-01.

The Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) continues to invest significant resources into seafloor mapping activities along Washington’s outer coast (Intelmann and Cochrane 2006; Intelmann et al. 2006; Intelmann 2006). Results from these annual mapping efforts offer a snapshot of current ground conditions, help to guide research and management activities, and provide a baseline for assessing the impacts of various threats to important habitat. During the months of August 2004 and May and July 2005, we used side scan sonar to image several regions of the sea floor in the northern OCNMS, and the data were mosaicked at 1-meter pixel resolution. Video from a towed camera sled, bathymetry data, sedimentary samples and side scan sonar mapping were integrated to describe geological and biological aspects of habitat. Polygon features were created and attributed with a hierarchical deep-water marine benthic classification scheme (Greene et al. 1999). For three small areas that were mapped with both side scan sonar and multibeam echosounder, we made a comparison of output from the classified images indicating little difference in results between the two methods. With these considerations, backscatter derived from multibeam bathymetry is currently a costefficient and safe method for seabed imaging in the shallow (<30 meters) rocky waters of OCNMS. The image quality is sufficient for classification purposes, the associated depths provide further descriptive value and risks to gear are minimized. In shallow waters (<30 meters) which do not have a high incidence of dangerous rock pinnacles, a towed multi-beam side scan sonar could provide a better option for obtaining seafloor imagery due to the high rate of acquisition speed and high image quality, however the high probability of losing or damaging such a costly system when deployed as a towed configuration in the extremely rugose nearshore zones within OCNMS is a financially risky proposition. The development of newer technologies such as intereferometric multibeam systems and bathymetric side scan systems could also provide great potential for mapping these nearshore rocky areas as they allow for high speed data acquisition, produce precisely geo-referenced side scan imagery to bathymetry, and do not experience the angular depth dependency associated with multibeam echosounders allowing larger range scales to be used in shallower water. As such, further investigation of these systems is needed to assess their efficiency and utility in these environments compared to traditional side scan sonar and multibeam bathymetry. (PDF contains 43 pages.)

Benthic habitat mapping in the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary: Classification of side scan sonar data from survey HMPR-108-2002-01: Version I

In September 2002, side scan sonar was used to image a portion of the sea floor in the northern OCNMS and was mosaiced at 1-meter pixel resolution using 100 kHz data collected at 300-meter range scale. Video from a remotely-operated vehicle (ROV), bathymetry data, sedimentary samples, and sonar mapping have been integrated to describe geological and biological aspects of habitat and polygon features have been created and attributed with a hierarchical deep-water marine benthic classification scheme (Greene et al. 1999). The data can be used with geographic information system (GIS) software for display, query, and analysis. Textural analysis of the sonar images provided a relatively automated method for delineating substrate into three broad classes representing soft, mixed sediment, and hard bottom. Microhabitat and presence of certain biologic attributes were also populated into the polygon features, but strictly limited to areas where video groundtruthing occurred. Further groundtruthing work in specific areas would improve confidence in the classified habitat map. (PDF contains 22 pages.)

Maintaining the "public good" nature of improved fish strains: dissemination of knowledge and materials

Many sources of information that discuss currents problems of food security point to the importance of farmed fish as an ideal food source that can be grown by poor farmers, (Asian Development Bank 2004). Furthermore, the development of improved strains of fish suitable for low-input aquaculture such as Tilapia, has demonstrated the feasibility of an approach that combines “cutting edge science” with accessible technology, as a means for improving the nutrition and livelihoods of both the urban poor and poor farmers in developing countries (Mair et al. 2002). However, the use of improved strains of fish as a means of reducing hunger and improving livelihoods has proved to be difficult to sustain, especially as a public good, when external (development) funding sources devoted to this area are minimal1. In addition, the more complicated problem of delivery of an aquaculture system, not just improved fish strains and the technology, can present difficulties and may go explicitly unrecognized (from Sissel Rogne, as cited by Silje Rem 2002). Thus, the involvement of private partners has featured prominently in the strategy for transferring to the public technology related to improved Tilapia strains. Partnering with the private sector in delivery schemes to the poor should take into account both the public goods aspect and the requirement that the traits selected for breeding “improved” strains meet the actual needs of the resource poor farmer. Other dissemination approaches involving the public sector may require a large investment in capacity building. However, the use of public sector institutions as delivery agents encourages the maintaining of the “public good” nature of the products.

Impacts of climate change of seaports: A survey of knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators

Port authorities from around the world were surveyed to ascertain how administrators feel climate change might impact their operations, what level of change would be problematic, and how they plan to adapt to new conditions. The survey was distributed to 350 major ports through two leading international port organizations, the International Association of Ports and Harbors and the American Association of Port Authorities. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Monitoring and classification of lakes in Finland

In Finland, as in other member countries of the European Union, preparations for implementing the EC Water Framework Directive (WFD) have begun. The article describes the current monitoring and classification strategies for Finnish Lakes.

A preliminary classification of lake types in Northern Ireland

The EC Water Framework Directive (WFD) introduces the concept of the ecological status of surface waters. The WFD requires that water bodies within an ecoregion are divided into waterbody "types" or "ecotypes". The waterbody type is determined by physico-chemical descriptors. A group of representatives from two government environmental agencies (Environment and Heritage Service and the Industrial Research and Technology Unit) and the two universities (Queen's University Belfast and the University of Ulster) in Northern Ireland, has been established to develop methods for measuring the ecological status of lakes, for the purposes of the WFD. The work here is that contributing to the first objective classification into waterbody types.

On the classification of lakes and lake-like bodies of the Ukraine [Translation from: Gidrobiologicheskie Zhurnal, Kiev 19(2) 100-101, 1983]

In the Ukraine there are several thousand large, medium and small lakes and lake-like reservoirs, distinguished by origin, salinity, regional position, productivity and by construction a significant number of large and small water bodies, ponds and industrial reservoirs of variable designation. The problem of national systems necessitates the creation of specific schemes and classifications. Classifying into specific types of reservoir by means of suitable specifications is required for planning national measures with the objective of the rational utilisation of natural resources. It is now necessary to consider the present-day characteristics of Ukranian lakes. In the case of the Ukraine it is possible to use two approaches - genetical and ecological. This paper uses the genetical system to classify the lake-like water bodies of the Ukraine.

Classification of Coastal Communities Reporting Commercial Fish Landings in the U.S. Northeast Region: Developing and Testing a Methodology

The National Marine Fisheries Service is required by law to conduct social impact assessments of communities impacted by fishery management plans. To facilitate this process, we developed a technique for grouping communities based on common sociocultural attributes. Multivariate data reduction techniques (e.g. principal component analyses, cluster analyses) were used to classify Northeast U.S. fishing communities based on census and fisheries data. The comparisons indicate that the clusters represent real groupings that can be verified with the profiles. We then selected communities representative of different values on these multivariate dimensions for in-depth analysis. The derived clusters are then compared based on more detailed data from fishing community profiles. Ground-truthing (e.g. visiting the communities and collecting primary information) a sample of communities from three clusters (two overlapping geographically) indicates that the more remote techniques are sufficient for typing the communities for further in-depth analyses. The in-depth analyses provide additional important information which we contend is representative of all communities within the cluster.

Lakes - Classification & Monitoring: a strategy for the classification of lakes

This is the report on Lakes – Classification and Monitoring, a strategy for the classification of lakes by the National Rivers Authority. This report describes a scheme for the assessment and monitoring of water and ecological quality in standing waters, greater than about 1ha in area, in England and Wales although it is generally relevant to Northwest Europe. Thirteen hydrological, chemical and biological variables are used to characterize the standing water body in any current sampling. Statistical testing on the chemical variables showed that at least six samples during a year would be needed to produce a representative sampling mean; but in this scheme the choice of variables minimizes logistic cost by not using boat sampling and time costs by not demanding extensive taxonomic work. Standing waters are classified in a state-changed system in which the contemporary values of the variables are compared with a reference baseline state and then placed in categories of percentage change from this baseline. The scheme is presently designed for use at about five year intervals on all lakes greater than 2ha area plus additional lakes of significant amenity or conservation interest.

Wetland resource evaluation and the NRA's role in its conservation. Classification of British wetlands

This is the Wetland resource evaluation and the NRA's role in its conservation: Classification of British wetlands report produced by the National Rivers Authority in 1995. This R&D document provides a clear classification for wetlands in England and Wales. The classification incorporates many of the existing ideas on the subject but avoids some of the problems associated with other classifications. A two-layered 'hydrotopographical' classification is proposed. The first layer identifies situation-types, i.e. the position the wetland occupies in the landscape, with special emphasis upon the principal sources of water. The second layer identifies hydrotopographical elements, i.e. units with distinctive water supply and, sometimes, distinctive topography in response to this. This system is seen as an independent, basic, classification upon which it is possible to superimpose additional, independent classifications based on other features (e.g. base-status, fertility, vegetation, management etc.). Some proposals for such additional classifications are provided.

An objective classification of climatic regions in the Pacific and Indian oceans

We have applied a number of objective statistical techniques to define homogeneous climatic regions for the Pacific Ocean, using COADS (Woodruff et al 1987) monthly sea surface temperature (SST) for 1950-1989 as the key variable. The basic data comprised all global 4°x4° latitude/longitude boxes with enough data available to yield reliable long-term means of monthly mean SST. An R-mode principal components analysis of these data, following a technique first used by Stidd (1967), yields information about harmonics of the annual cycles of SST. We used the spatial coefficients (one for each 4-degree box and eigenvector) as input to a K-means cluster analysis to classify the gridbox SST data into 34 global regions, in which 20 comprise the Pacific and Indian oceans. Seasonal time series were then produced for each of these regions. For comparison purposes, the variance spectrum of each regional anomaly time series was calculated. Most of the significant spectral peaks occur near the biennial (2.1-2.2 years) and ENSO (~3-6 years) time scales in the tropical regions. Decadal scale fluctuations are important in the mid-latitude ocean regions.

Vocational education for the development of knowledge system in fisheries sector

The paper aims to give the concept and functional approach of knowledge system with reference to the fisheries sector. The background and strategies to develop knowledge workers by translating the concept of knowledge system are presented. The job opportunities given in the paper strengthen the need of the development of knowledge workers through vocational education and training. The Vocational Education Programme in the backdrop can be effective both in the formal system of education through different models suggested and through the non-formal system. The modular courses varying from 50 hours and 2-3 weeks to 6 months or one year can be introduced in the formal system as pre-vocational modules (50-h duration) in IX-X classes in vocational institutions, and the non-governmental organizations/Krishi Vigyan Kendras/Indian Council of Agricultural Research may offer occupation-based modules (2-3 weeks to 6 months). The strategic approach for the development of knowledge system highlighting various issues is also suggested.