Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Highly migratory shark fisheries research by the National Shark Research Consortium (NSRC), 2002-2007

The National Shark Research Consortium (NSRC) includes the Center for Shark Research at Mote Marine Laboratory, the Pacific Shark Research Center at Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, the Shark Research Program at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, and the Florida Program for Shark Research at the University of Florida. The consortium objectives include shark-related research in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the U.S., education and scientific cooperation.

Cruise Report 51-S-1 of N.B. Scofield: Number S-21 of the Cooperative Sardine Research Program

(PDF contains 1 page.)

Blue Marlin, Makaira nigricans, Movements in the Western North Atlantic Ocean: Results of a Cooperative Game Fish Tagging Program, 1954-88

Blue marlin, Makaira nigricans, tag and recapture data are summarized for 1954-1988. During this period, 8,447 fish have been tagged and only 30 (0.35 percent) have been returned. Results of the tagging program indicate that blue marlin not only travel considerable distances (7,OOO km from the U. S. Virgin Islands to the Ivory Coast of West Africa), but have remained at large for up to 8 years. Seasonal movements, however, are difficult to determine accurately.

Research in development: learning from the CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems

This working paper aims to synthesize and share learning from the experience of adapting and operationalizing the Research in Development(RinD) approach to agricultural research in the five hubs under the The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems. It seeks to share learning about how the approach is working in context and to explore the outcomes it is achieving through initial implementation over 3 ½ years. This learning can inform continuation of agricultural research in the second phase of the CGIAR research programs and will be useful to others aiming to implement research programs that seek to equitably build capacity to innovate in complex social-ecological systems. Each of the chapters in this working paper have shown that RinD has produced a range of outcomes that were often unexpected and broader in scope than might result from other approaches to agricultural research. RinD also produces innovations, and there is evidence that it builds capacity to innovate.

Mesophotic coral ecosystems research strategy: international workshop to prioritize research and management needs for mesophotic coral ecosystems, Jupiter, Florida, 12-15 July 2008

On July 12-15, 2008, researchers and resource managers met in Jupiter, Florida to discuss and review the state of knowledge regarding mesophotic coral ecosystems, develop a working definition for these ecosystems, identify critical resource management information needs, and develop a Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems Research Strategy to assist the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other agencies and institutions in their research prioritization and strategic planning for mesophotic coral ecosystems. Workshop participants included representatives from international, Federal, and state governments; academia; and nongovernmental organizations. The Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems Workshop was hosted by the Perry Institute for Marine Science (PIMS) and organized by NOAA and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The workshop goals, objectives, schedule, and products were governed by a Steering Committee consisting of members from NOAA (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science’s Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research, the Office of Ocean Exploration and Research’s NOAA Undersea Research Program, and the National Marine Fisheries Service), USGS, PIMS, the Caribbean Coral Reef Institute, and the Bishop Museum.

A proposal for sea otter protection and research and request for the return of management to the State of California

v.1 - Text and Summaries (272 page document)

Vertical transport and exchange of materials in the upper waters of the oceans (VERTEX): introduction to the program, hydrographic conditions and major component fluxes during VERTEX I

This paper introduces VERTEX, a multi-disciplinary research program dealing with various aspects of particle transport in the upper, high-energy layers (0-2000 m) of the ocean. Background information is presented on hydrography, biological composition of trapped particulates, and major component fluxes observed on a cruise off central California (VERTEX I). Organic C fluxes measured with two trap systems are compared with several other estimates taken from the literature. The intent of this overview paper is to provide a common setting in an economical manner, and avoid undue repetition of background and ancillary information in subsequent publications. (PDF is 43 pages).

Proceedings of the Twenty-second Annual Symposium on Sea Turtle Biology and Conservation, 4-7 April, 2002, Miami, Florida

The 22nd Annual Symposium on Sea Turtle Biology and Conservation was held April 4-7, 2002 in Miami, Florida and hosted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The 22nd symposium was the most globally diverse ever with 839 individuals from 73 countries attending the symposium and associated regional meetings. One third of the attendees were from outside the United States. This diverse attendance was made possible in large part because of substantial donations from The Packard Foundation, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Convention on Migratory Species, Oceanic Research Foundation, and International Sea Turtle Society which supported travel grants for 170 international travelers. (PDF contains 336 pages)