70 resultados para Robust estimates


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Management of coastal species of small cetaceans is often impeded by a lack of robust estimates of their abundance. In the Austral summers of 1997−98, 1998−99, and 1999−2000 we conducted line-transect surveys of Hector’s dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori) abundance off the north, east, and south coasts of the South Island of New Zealand. Survey methods were modified for the use of a 15-m sailing catamaran, which was equipped with a collapsible sighting platform giving observers an eye-height of 6 m. Eighty-six percent of 2061 km of survey effort was allocated to inshore waters (4 nautical miles [nmi] or 7.4 km from shore), and the remainder to offshore waters (4−10 nmi or 7.4–18.5 km from shore). Transects were placed at 45° to the shore and spaced apart by 1, 2, 4, or 8 nmi according to pre-existing data on dolphin density. Survey effort within strata was uniform. Detection functions for sheltered waters and open coasts were fitted separately for each survey. The effect of attraction of dolphins to the survey vessel and the fraction of dolphins missed on the trackline were assessed with simultaneous boat and helicopter surveys in January 1999. Hector’s dolphin abundance in the coastal zone to 4 nmi offshore was calculated at 1880 individuals (CV=15.7%, log-normal 95% CI=1384−2554). These surveys are the first line-transect surveys for cetaceans in New Zealand’s coastal waters.

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Data recovered from 11 popup satellite archival tags and 3 surgically implanted archival tags were used to analyze the movement patterns of juvenile northern bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus orientalis) in the eastern Pacific. The light sensors on archival and pop-up satellite transmitting archival tags (PSATs) provide data on the time of sunrise and sunset, allowing the calculation of an approximate geographic position of the animal. Light-based estimates of longitude are relatively robust but latitude estimates are prone to large degrees of error, particularly near the times of the equinoxes and when the tag is at low latitudes. Estimating latitude remains a problem for researchers using light-based geolocation algorithms and it has been suggested that sea surface temperature data from satellites may be a useful tool for refining latitude estimates. Tag data from bluefin tuna were subjected to a newly developed algorithm, called “PSAT Tracker,” which automatically matches sea surface temperature data from the tags with sea surface temperatures recorded by satellites. The results of this algorithm compared favorably to the estimates of latitude calculated with the lightbased algorithms and allowed for estimation of fish positions during times of the year when the lightbased algorithms failed. Three near one-year tracks produced by PSAT tracker showed that the fish range from the California−Oregon border to southern Baja California, Mexico, and that the majority of time is spent off the coast of central Baja Mexico. A seasonal movement pattern was evident; the fish spend winter and spring off central Baja California, and summer through fall is spent moving northward to Oregon and returning to Baja California.

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The mortality of the four major cichlid fishes of Urnuoseriche Lake is the subject of this paper. Mortality I as estimated by five techniques, vary amongst the cichlid fishes, viz, Tilapia carbrae, Tilapia mariac, Tilapia zilli cend (hrornoditilapfa guntheri. The highest mortality rate was recorded for T mariac where the total mortality (Z) was 2.06; and natural mortality (M) was 1.8949. This species was also the most highly exploited species of fish with an exploitation ratio of0.566 (56.6%) and exploitation rate of 0.494. The least exploited cichlid fish is (. gun/hen where an exploitation ratio of 0.43209%) and exploitation rate of 0.2225 was recorded. In C'. guntheni, total mortality was 0.726 and natural mortality was 0.413 1. In T zilli, total mortality was 1.0547 wile exploitation ratio was 0.3674 (3 6.74%) and an exploitation rate was 0.2394. In T cahrae. total mortality was 1.8662: exploitation ratio was 0.4786 with an exploitation rate of 0.4045. (7 page document)

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ENGLISH: Year-class composition of catch, virtual population size and yearclass strength were determined from serial samples of size composition of catches and catch records. Murphy's Solution to the catch equation, which is free from the effects caused by changes in fishing pressure, was used to estimate year-class strength, i.e. the total population of fish age 3/4 years. The resultant estimates indicated that the X55, X56, X57, X62 and X63 year classes were above average and the X58, X59, X60, X61 and X64 year classes were below average. The year-class designation refers to the year of actual entry or presumed year of entry into the commercial fishery (at approximately 1 year of age). The strongest and poorest year classes were the X57 and X61 classes, respectively. The ratio of the strongest to the weakest year class was 2.6. This amount of variation is small compared to that found for other species of fish. It was found that the relationship between stock size and yearclass strength is of no value in predicting year-class strength. As a by-product of the analysis, estimates of the catchability coefficients (qN) of the age groups in the fishery were obtained, These estimates were found to vary with age and time. Age-two fish apparently showed the greatest vulnerability to fishing gear, followed by ages three and one, respectively. The average estimate of the catchability coefficient in weight was calculated and found to compare favorably with Schaefer's estimate. The influence of sea-surface water temperature upon year-class strength was investigated to determine whether the latter can be predicted from a knowledge of sea-surface temperatures prevailing during and following spawning. No correlation was evident. SPANISH: La composición de la clase anual en la captura, el tamaño de la población virtual y la fuerza de clase anual, fueron determinados según una serie de muestras de la composición de tamaño de las capturas y de los registros de captura. La Solución de Murphy de la ecuación de captura, que está libre de los efectos causados por los cambios de la presión de pesca, fue usada para estimar la fuerza de la clase anual, i.e. la población total de peces de 3/4 años. Las estimaciones resultantes indican que las clases anuales X55, X56, X57, X62 y X63 fueron superiores al promedio y que las clases anuales X58, X59, X60, X61 y X64 fueron inferiores al promedio. La designación de la clase anual se refiere al año actual de entrada o al año supuesto de entrada en la pesca comercial (aproximadamente a la edad de 1 año). Las clases anuales más fuertes y más pobres fueron la X57 y X61 respectivamente. La razón de la clase anual más fuerte en relación a la más débil fue 2.6. Esta cantidad de variación es pequeña comparada con la encontrada para otras especies de peces. Se encontró que la relación entre en tamaño del stock y la fuerza de la clase anual no tiene valor en predecir la fuerza de la clase anual. Se obtuvieron estimaciones de los coeficientes de capturabilidad (qN) de los grupos de edad en la pesquería como un producto derivado del análisis. Se encontraron que estas estimaciones variaron con la edad y tiempo. Los peces de edad dos aparentemente presentaron la vulnerabilidad más grande en relación al arte pesquero, seguidos por las edades tres y una, respectivamente. La estimación promedio del coeficiente de capturabilidad en peso fue calculada y se encontró que podía compararse favorablemente con la estimación de Schaefer. La influencia de la temperatura del agua superficial del mar sobre la fuerza de la clase anual fue investigada para determinar si se podía predecir esta última según el conocimíento de las temperaturas superficiales del mar prevalecientes durante el desove y después de éste. No hubo correlación evidente. (PDF contains 44 pages.)

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ENGLISH: Tag release and return data for the Baja California and Gulf of Guayaquil areas were selected for this study because substantial numbers of returns resulted from these releases and because the effects of emigration are small in these areas. The returns of tags per unit of fishing effort for several experiments in each area were used to estimate the coefficients of total mortality and shedding. The coefficient of annual natural mortality was estimated to be less than 2.0, which is in agreement with a previous estimate of 0.8, but does not improve upon it. The estimates for the average coefficients of catchability are 2.02 X 10-3 for the Baja California area and 0.67 X 10-3 for the Gulf of Guayaquil area. SPANISH: Se seleccionaron para este estudio algunos da tos de liberación y retorno de marcas en las áreas de Baja California y el Golfo de Guayaquil debido a que cantidades substanciales de retornos resultaron de estas liberaciones y porque los efectos de migración son pequeños en estas áreas. Los retornos de marcas por unidad de esfuerzo de pesca de varios experimentos en cada área fueron empleados para estimar los coeficientes de mortalidad total y desprendimiento. Se estimó que el coeficiente de mortalidad natural anual fue inferior a 2.0, lo que está de acuerdo con una estimación anterior de 0.8, pero no la mejora. Las estimaciones de los coeficientes promedios de capturabilidad son 2.02 X 10-3 en el área de Baja California y 0.67 X 10-3 en el área del Golfo de Guayaquil. (PDF contains 58 pages.)

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ENGLISH: Return data for single-tagged fish and for double-tagged fish which had retained one or both tags were used to estimate the rates of shedding of dart tags from yellowfin tuna. The Type-1 shedding, which occurs immediately after release of the fish, is about 10 percent. The Type-2 shedding is assumed to be constant throughout the life of the fish after tagging; it occurs at an instantaneous rate of about 0.278 per year. SPANISH: Se emplearon los datos de retorno de peces marcados con una sola marca y de peces marcados con doble marca los cuales han retenido una o dos marcas para estimar las tasas de pérdida de las marcas de dardo de atunes aleta amarilla. El Tipo-l de pérdida, que ocurre inmediatamente después de haber liberado el pez, es aproximadamente del 10 por ciento. El Tipo-2 de pérdida se supone que sea constante durante la vida del pez después de marcado; ocurre en una tasa instantánea cerca de 0.278 por año. (PDF contains 24 pages.)

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A summary of the inventory survey of Nigeria inland waters is presented. The survey reveals that Kano State tops the list in reservoir development with an existing water surface area of about 42,773 ha, while Anambra State has the least with about 38 hectares. No reservoir was recorded for Lagos and Rivers States. However, in aspects of existing fish ponds, a total of about 471 ha was recorded for Plateau State and about 5 ha for Niger State. Preliminary estimates of Nigeria's fish yield potentials based on established production records of comparable water bodies in the tropics, at different levels of management, show that the available water mass in the country, estimated at about 12.5 million hectares, could yield a minimum of about 334,214 metric tonnes (m.t.) of fish per annum with little or no management and a maximum of about 511,703 metric tonnes per annum with adequate management. Comparison of the potential yields from inland sources with the projected fish production in Nigeria (1981-1985) based on supply and demand statistics shows that potential yield from inland sources even at a low level of management is relatively higher than the projected inland production and more than double the observed production. The variation between the potential and the observed fish yields in the country has been attributed to the absolute lack of management strategies for our various inland waters. The paper elaborates on possible management strategies for various categories of inland waters as a prelude towards increased fish production in the country

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Contemporary striped bass population modeling efforts on coastal stocks point to a reduced population fecundity in Chesapeake Bay being partially responsible for declining reproduction (Anonymous 1985; Boreman and Goodyear 1984). Fecundity values used in these models were based on earlier work by jackson and tiller (1952), lewis and Bonner (1966), Hollis (1967) and Holland and Yelverton (1973). An important feature to the Boreman and Goodyear (1985) model (FSIM) is an accurate determination of the fecundity weight regression equation used to determine the rate of egg deposition over time. Egg deposition models in turn can be used to determine how reproductive potential is changing over time in response to various management actions, i.e. reducing fishing mortality rates. thus it is imperative to follow population stock structure in the Bay system and to develop a contemporary fecundity relationship for striped bass. This report deals with the gonadal material collected in 1986 and 1987 from a coordinated Maryland field program. Samples were obtained from drift gill net collections during the spawning season from four localities: Potomac Estuary, Upper Bay, Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, and the Choptank Estuary (Figure 1).

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Rockfish species are notoriously difficult to sample with multispecies bottom trawl survey methods. Typically, biomass estimates have high coefficients of variation and can fluctuate outside the bounds of biological reality from year to year. This variation may be due in part to their patchy distribution related to very specific habitat preferences. We successfully modeled the distribution of five commercially important and abundant rockf ish species. A two-stage modeling method (modeling both presence-absence and abundance) and a collection of important habitat variables were used to predict bottom trawl survey catch per unit of effort. The resulting models explained between 22% and 66% of the variation in rockfish distribution. The models were largely driven by depth, local slope, bottom temperature, abundance of coral and sponge, and measures of water column productivity (i.e., phytoplankton and zooplankton). A year-effect in the models was back-transformed and used as an index of the time series of abundance. The abundance index trajectories of three of five species were similar to the existing estimates of their biomass. In the majority of cases the habitat-based indices exhibited less interannual variability and similar precision when compared with stratified survey-based biomass estimates. These indices may provide for stock assessment models a more stable alternative to current biomass estimates produced by the multispecies bottom trawl survey in the Gulf of Alaska.

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Fish growth is commonly estimated from length-at-age data obtained from otoliths. There are several techniques for estimating length-at-age from otoliths including 1) direct observed counts of annual increments; 2) age adjustment based on a categorization of otolith margins; 3) age adjustment based on known periods of spawning and annuli formation; 4) back-calculation to all annuli, and 5) back-calculation to the last annulus only. In this study we compared growth estimates (von Bertalanffy growth functions) obtained from the above five methods for estimating length-at-age from otoliths for two large scombrids: narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) and broad-barred king mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus). Likelihood ratio tests revealed that the largest differences in growth occurred between the back-calculation methods and the observed and adjusted methods for both species of mackerel. The pattern, however, was more pronounced for S. commerson than for S. semifasciatus, because of the pronounced effect of gear selectivity demonstrated for S. commerson. We propose a method of substituting length-at-age data from observed or adjusted methods with back-calculated length-at-age data to provide more appropriate estimates of population growth than those obtained with the individual methods alone, particularly when faster growing young fish are disproportionately selected for. Substitution of observed or adjusted length-at-age data with back-calculated length-at-age data provided more realistic estimates of length for younger ages than observed or adjusted methods as well as more realistic estimates of mean maximum length than those derived from backcalculation methods alone.

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A case study of the reproductive biology of the endemic Hawaiian grouper or hapu’upu’u (Hyporthodus quernus) is presented as a model for comprehensive future studies of economically important epinephelid groupers. Specimens were collected throughout multiple years (1978–81, 1992–93, and 2005–08) from most reefs and banks of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The absence of small males, presence of atretic oocytes and brown bodies in testes of mature males, and both developed ovarian and testicular tissues in the gonads of five transitional fish provided evidence of protogynous hermaphroditism. No small mature males were collected, indicating that Hawaiian grouper are monandrous (all males are sex-changed females). Complementary microscopic criteria also were used to assign reproductive stage and estimate median body sizes (L50) at female sexual maturity and at adult sex change from female to male. The L50 at maturation and at sex change was 580 ±8 (95% confidence interval [CI]) mm total length (TL) and 895 ±20 mm TL, respectively. The adult sex ratio was strongly female biased (6:1). Spawning seasonality was described by using gonadosomatic indices. Females began ripening in the fall and remained ripe through April. A February–June main spawning period that followed peak ripening was deduced from the proportion of females whose ovaries contained hydrated oocytes, postovulatory follicles, or both. Testes weights were not affected by season; average testes weight was only about 0.2% of body weight—an order of magnitude smaller than that for ovaries that peaked at 1–3% of body weight. The species’ reproductive life history is discussed in relation to its management.

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Body-size measurement errors are usually ignored in stock assessments, but may be important when body-size data (e.g., from visual sur veys) are imprecise. We used experiments and models to quantify measurement errors and their effects on assessment models for sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus). Errors in size data obscured modes from strong year classes and increased frequency and size of the largest and smallest sizes, potentially biasing growth, mortality, and biomass estimates. Modeling techniques for errors in age data proved useful for errors in size data. In terms of a goodness of model fit to the assessment data, it was more important to accommodate variance than bias. Models that accommodated size errors fitted size data substantially better. We recommend experimental quantification of errors along with a modeling approach that accommodates measurement errors because a direct algebraic approach was not robust and because error parameters were diff icult to estimate in our assessment model. The importance of measurement errors depends on many factors and should be evaluated on a case by case basis.

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Fishery managers are mandated to understand the effects that environmental damage, fishery regulations, and habitat improvement projects have on the net benefits that recreational anglers derive from their sport. Since 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has worked to develop a consistent method for estimating net benefits through site choice models of recreational trip demand. In estimating net benefits with these models, there is a tradeoff between computational efficiency and angler behavior in reality. This article examines this tradeoff by considering the sensitivity of angler-welfare estimates for an increase in striped bass (Morone saxatalis) angling quality across choice sets with five travel distance cutoffs and compares those estimates to a model with an unrestricted choice set. This article shows that 95% confidence intervals for welfare estimates of an increase in the striped bass catch and keep rate overlap for all distance-based choice sets specified here.

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For most fisheries applications, the shape of a length-frequency distribution is much more important than its mean length or variance. This makes it difficult to evaluate at which point a sample size is adequate. By estimating the coefficient of variation of the counts in each length class and taking a weighted mean of these, a measure of precision was obtained that takes the precision in all length classes into account. The precision estimates were closely associated with the ratio of the sample size to the number of size classes in each sample. As a rule-of-thumb, a minimum sample size of 10 times the number of length classes in the sample is suggested because the precision deteriorates rapidly for smaller sample sizes. In absence of such a rule-of-thumb, samplers have previously under-estimated the required sample size for samples with large fish, while over-sampling small fish of the same species.

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Multibeam sonar mapping techniques provide detailed benthic habitat information that can be combined with the data on species-specific habitat preferences to provide highly accurate calculations of populations in a particular area. The amount of suitable habitat available for the endangered white abalone (Haliotis sorenseni) was quantified to aid in obtaining an accurate estimate of the number of remaining individuals at two offshore banks and one island site off the coast of southern California. Habitat was mapped by using multibeam sonar survey techniques and categorized by using rugosity and topographic position analysis. Abalone densities were evaluated by using a remotely operated vehicle and video transect methods. The total amount of suitable habitat at these three sites was far greater than that previously estimated. Therefore, although present estimates of white abalone densities are several orders of magnitude lower than historic estimates, the total population is likely larger than previously reported because of the additional amount of habitat surveyed in this study.