Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Quantifying chaos: practical estimation of the correlation dimension

Be it a physical object or a mathematical model, a nonlinear dynamical system can display complicated aperiodic behavior, or "chaos." In many cases, this chaos is associated with motion on a strange attractor in the system's phase space. And the dimension of the strange attractor indicates the effective number of degrees of freedom in the dynamical system.

In this thesis, we investigate numerical issues involved with estimating the dimension of a strange attractor from a finite time series of measurements on the dynamical system.

Of the various definitions of dimension, we argue that the correlation dimension is the most efficiently calculable and we remark further that it is the most commonly calculated. We are concerned with the practical problems that arise in attempting to compute the correlation dimension. We deal with geometrical effects (due to the inexact self-similarity of the attractor), dynamical effects (due to the nonindependence of points generated by the dynamical system that defines the attractor), and statistical effects (due to the finite number of points that sample the attractor). We propose a modification of the standard algorithm, which eliminates a specific effect due to autocorrelation, and a new implementation of the correlation algorithm, which is computationally efficient.

Finally, we apply the algorithm to chaotic data from the Caltech tokamak and the Texas tokamak (TEXT); we conclude that plasma turbulence is not a low- dimensional phenomenon.

Invariants, Lie-Bäcklund operators and Bäcklund transformations

This thesis is mainly concerned with the application of groups of transformations to differential equations and in particular with the connection between the group structure of a given equation and the existence of exact solutions and conservation laws. In this respect the Lie-Bäcklund groups of tangent transformations, particular cases of which are the Lie tangent and the Lie point groups, are extensively used.

In Chapter I we first review the classical results of Lie, Bäcklund and Bianchi as well as the more recent ones due mainly to Ovsjannikov. We then concentrate on the Lie-Bäcklund groups (or more precisely on the corresponding Lie-Bäcklund operators), as introduced by Ibragimov and Anderson, and prove some lemmas about them which are useful for the following chapters. Finally we introduce the concept of a conditionally admissible operator (as opposed to an admissible one) and show how this can be used to generate exact solutions.

In Chapter II we establish the group nature of all separable solutions and conserved quantities in classical mechanics by analyzing the group structure of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. It is shown that consideration of only Lie point groups is insufficient. For this purpose a special type of Lie-Bäcklund groups, those equivalent to Lie tangent groups, is used. It is also shown how these generalized groups induce Lie point groups on Hamilton's equations. The generalization of the above results to any first order equation, where the dependent variable does not appear explicitly, is obvious. In the second part of this chapter we investigate admissible operators (or equivalently constants of motion) of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation with polynornial dependence on the momenta. The form of the most general constant of motion linear, quadratic and cubic in the momenta is explicitly found. Emphasis is given to the quadratic case, where the particular case of a fixed (say zero) energy state is also considered; it is shown that in the latter case additional symmetries may appear. Finally, some potentials of physical interest admitting higher symmetries are considered. These include potentials due to two centers and limiting cases thereof. The most general two-center potential admitting a quadratic constant of motion is obtained, as well as the corresponding invariant. Also some new cubic invariants are found.

In Chapter III we first establish the group nature of all separable solutions of any linear, homogeneous equation. We then concentrate on the Schrodinger equation and look for an algorithm which generates a quantum invariant from a classical one. The problem of an isomorphism between functions in classical observables and quantum observables is studied concretely and constructively. For functions at most quadratic in the momenta an isomorphism is possible which agrees with Weyl' s transform and which takes invariants into invariants. It is not possible to extend the isomorphism indefinitely. The requirement that an invariant goes into an invariant may necessitate variants of Weyl' s transform. This is illustrated for the case of cubic invariants. Finally, the case of a specific value of energy is considered; in this case Weyl's transform does not yield an isomorphism even for the quadratic case. However, for this case a correspondence mapping a classical invariant to a quantum orie is explicitly found.

Chapters IV and V are concerned with the general group structure of evolution equations. In Chapter IV we establish a one to one correspondence between admissible Lie-Bäcklund operators of evolution equations (derivable from a variational principle) and conservation laws of these equations. This correspondence takes the form of a simple algorithm.

In Chapter V we first establish the group nature of all Bäcklund transformations (BT) by proving that any solution generated by a BT is invariant under the action of some conditionally admissible operator. We then use an algorithm based on invariance criteria to rederive many known BT and to derive some new ones. Finally, we propose a generalization of BT which, among other advantages, clarifies the connection between the wave-train solution and a BT in the sense that, a BT may be thought of as a variation of parameters of some. special case of the wave-train solution (usually the solitary wave one). Some open problems are indicated.

Most of the material of Chapters II and III is contained in [I], [II], [III] and [IV] and the first part of Chapter V in [V].

Topics in vortex motion

Six topics in incompressible, inviscid fluid flow involving vortex motion are presented. The stability of the unsteady flow field due to the vortex filament expanding under the influence of an axial compression is examined in the first chapter as a possible model of the vortex bursting observed in aircraft contrails. The filament with a stagnant core is found to be unstable to axisymmetric disturbances. For initial disturbances with the form of axisymmetric Kelvin waves, the filament with a uniformly rotating core is neutrally stable, but the compression causes the disturbance to undergo a rapid increase in amplitude. The time at which the increase occurs is, however, later than the observed bursting times, indicating the bursting phenomenon is not caused by this type of instability.

In the second and third chapters the stability of a steady vortex filament deformed by two-dimensional strain and shear flows, respectively, is examined. The steady deformations are in the plane of the vortex cross-section. Disturbances which deform the filament centerline into a wave which does not propagate along the filament are shown to be unstable and a method is described to calculate the wave number and corresponding growth rate of the amplified waves for a general distribution of vorticity in the vortex core.

In Chapter Four exact solutions are constructed for two-dimensional potential flow over a wing with a free ideal vortex standing over the wing. The loci of positions of the free vortex are found and the lift is calculated. It is found that the lift on the wing can be significantly increased by the free vortex.

The two-dimensional trajectories of an ideal vortex pair near an orifice are calculated in Chapter Five. Three geometries are examined, and the criteria for the vortices to travel away from the orifice are determined.

Finally, Chapter Six reproduces completely the paper, "Structure of a linear array of hollow vortices of finite cross-section," co-authored with G. R. Baker and P. G. Saffman. Free streamline theory is employed to construct an exact steady solution for a linear array of hollow, or stagnant cored vortices. If each vortex has area A and the separation is L, then there are two possible shapes if A^(1/2)/L is less than 0.38 and none if it is larger. The stability of the shapes to two-dimensional, periodic and symmetric disturbances is considered for hollow vortices. The more deformed of the two possible shapes is found to be unstable, while the less deformed shape is stable.

Studies in vortex motion

This thesis covers four different problems in the understanding of vortex sheets, and these are presented in four chapters.

In Chapter 1, free streamline theory is used to determine the steady solutions of an array of identical, hollow or stagnant core vortices in an inviscid, incompressible fluid. Assuming the array is symmetric to rotation through π radians about an axis through any vortex centre, there are two solutions or no solutions depending on whether A^(1/2)/L is less than or greater than 0.38 where A is the area of the vortex and L is the separation distance. Stability analysis shows that the more deformed shape is unstable to infinitesimal symmetric disturbances which leave the centres of the vortices undisplaced.

Chapter 2 is concerned with the roll-up of vortex sheets in homogeneous fluid. The flow over conventional and ring wings is used to test the method of Fink and Soh (1974). Despite modifications which improve the accuracy of the method, unphysical results occur. A possible explanation for this is that small scales are important and an alternate method based on "Cloud-in-Cell" techniques is introduced. The results show small scale growth and amalgamation into larger structures.

The motion of a buoyant pair of line vortices of opposite circulation is considered in Chapter 3. The density difference between the fluid carried by the vortices and the fluid outside is considered small, so that the Boussinesq approximation may be used. A macroscopic model is developed which shows the formation of a detrainment filament and this is included as a modification to the model. The results agree well with the numerical solution as developed by Hill (1975b) and show that after an initial slowdown, the vortices begin to accelerate downwards.

Chapter 4 reproduces completely a paper that has already been published (Baker, Barker, Bofah and Saffman (1974)) on the effect of "vortex wandering" on the measurement of velocity profiles of the trailing vortices behind a wing.

Robot navigation in dense crowds : statistical models and experimental studies of human robot cooperation

This thesis explores the problem of mobile robot navigation in dense human crowds. We begin by considering a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the freezing robot problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing predictive uncertainty by employing higher fidelity individual dynamics models or heuristically limiting the individual predictive covariance to prevent overcautious navigation. We demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the individual predictive uncertainty have little to do with this undesirable navigation behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that dynamic agents are able to navigate in dense crowds by engaging in joint collision avoidance, cooperatively making room to create feasible trajectories. We accordingly develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a "multiple goal" extension that models the goal driven nature of human decision making. Navigation naturally emerges as a statistic of this distribution.

Most importantly, we empirically validate our models in the Chandler dining hall at Caltech during peak hours, and in the process, carry out the first extensive quantitative study of robot navigation in dense human crowds (collecting data on 488 runs). The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 1 person/m², while a state of the art noncooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than 3 times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people/m². We also show that our noncooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. For inclusive validation purposes, we show that either our non-interacting planner or our reactive planner captures the salient characteristics of nearly any existing dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds.

Finally, we produce a large database of ground truth pedestrian crowd data. We make this ground truth database publicly available for further scientific study of crowd prediction models, learning from demonstration algorithms, and human robot interaction models in general.

Effects of particle size ratio on single particle motion in colloidal dispersions

The motion of a single Brownian particle of arbitrary size through a dilute colloidal dispersion of neutrally buoyant bath spheres of another characteristic size in a Newtonian solvent is examined in two contexts. First, the particle in question, the probe particle, is subject to a constant applied external force drawing it through the suspension as a simple model for active and nonlinear microrheology. The strength of the applied external force, normalized by the restoring forces of Brownian motion, is the Péclet number, Pe. This dimensionless quantity describes how strongly the probe is upsetting the equilibrium distribution of the bath particles. The mean motion and fluctuations in the probe position are related to interpreted quantities of an effective viscosity of the suspension. These interpreted quantities are calculated to first order in the volume fraction of bath particles and are intimately tied to the spatial distribution, or microstructure, of bath particles relative to the probe. For weak Pe, the disturbance to the equilibrium microstructure is dipolar in nature, with accumulation and depletion regions on the front and rear faces of the probe, respectively. With increasing applied force, the accumulation region compresses to form a thin boundary layer whose thickness scales with the inverse of Pe. The depletion region lengthens to form a trailing wake. The magnitude of the microstructural disturbance is found to grow with increasing bath particle size -- small bath particles in the solvent resemble a continuum with effective microviscosity given by Einstein's viscosity correction for a dilute dispersion of spheres. Large bath particles readily advect toward the minimum approach distance possible between the probe and bath particle, and the probe and bath particle pair rotating as a doublet is the primary mechanism by which the probe particle is able to move past; this is a process that slows the motion of the probe by a factor of the size ratio. The intrinsic microviscosity is found to force thin at low Péclet number due to decreasing contributions from Brownian motion, and force thicken at high Péclet number due to the increasing influence of the configuration-averaged reduction in the probe's hydrodynamic self mobility. Nonmonotonicity at finite sizes is evident in the limiting high-Pe intrinsic microviscosity plateau as a function of bath-to-probe particle size ratio. The intrinsic microviscosity is found to grow with the size ratio for very small probes even at large-but-finite Péclet numbers. However, even a small repulsive interparticle potential, that excludes lubrication interactions, can reduce this intrinsic microviscosity back to an order one quantity. The results of this active microrheology study are compared to previous theoretical studies of falling-ball and towed-ball rheometry and sedimentation and diffusion in polydisperse suspensions, and the singular limit of full hydrodynamic interactions is noted.

Second, the probe particle in question is no longer subject to a constant applied external force. Rather, the particle is considered to be a catalytically-active motor, consuming the bath reactant particles on its reactive face while passively colliding with reactant particles on its inert face. By creating an asymmetric distribution of reactant about its surface, the motor is able to diffusiophoretically propel itself with some mean velocity. The effects of finite size of the solute are examined on the leading order diffusive microstructure of reactant about the motor. Brownian and interparticle contributions to the motor velocity are computed for several interparticle interaction potential lengths and finite reactant-to-motor particle size ratios, with the dimensionless motor velocity increasing with decreasing motor size. A discussion on Brownian rotation frames the context in which these results could be applicable, and future directions are proposed which properly incorporate reactant advection at high motor velocities.

A new high-order Fourier continuation-based elasticity solver for complex three-dimensional geometries

This thesis presents a new approach for the numerical solution of three-dimensional problems in elastodynamics. The new methodology, which is based on a recently introduced Fourier continuation (FC) algorithm for the solution of Partial Differential Equations on the basis of accurate Fourier expansions of possibly non-periodic functions, enables fast, high-order solutions of the time-dependent elastic wave equation in a nearly dispersionless manner, and it requires use of CFL constraints that scale only linearly with spatial discretizations. A new FC operator is introduced to treat Neumann and traction boundary conditions, and a block-decomposed (sub-patch) overset strategy is presented for implementation of general, complex geometries in distributed-memory parallel computing environments. Our treatment of the elastic wave equation, which is formulated as a complex system of variable-coefficient PDEs that includes possibly heterogeneous and spatially varying material constants, represents the first fully-realized three-dimensional extension of FC-based solvers to date. Challenges for three-dimensional elastodynamics simulations such as treatment of corners and edges in three-dimensional geometries, the existence of variable coefficients arising from physical configurations and/or use of curvilinear coordinate systems and treatment of boundary conditions, are all addressed. The broad applicability of our new FC elasticity solver is demonstrated through application to realistic problems concerning seismic wave motion on three-dimensional topographies as well as applications to non-destructive evaluation where, for the first time, we present three-dimensional simulations for comparison to experimental studies of guided-wave scattering by through-thickness holes in thin plates.

A new ground motion intensity measure, peak filtered acceleration (PFA), to estimate collapse vulnerability of buildings in earthquakes

In this thesis, we develop an efficient collapse prediction model, the PFA (Peak Filtered Acceleration) model, for buildings subjected to different types of ground motions.

For the structural system, the PFA model covers modern steel and reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame buildings (potentially reinforced concrete shear wall buildings). For ground motions, the PFA model covers ramp-pulse-like ground motions, long-period ground motions, and short-period ground motions.

To predict whether a building will collapse in response to a given ground motion, we first extract long-period components from the ground motion using a Butterworth low-pass filter with suggested order and cutoff frequency. The order depends on the type of ground motion, and the cutoff frequency depends on the building’s natural frequency and ductility. We then compare the filtered acceleration time history with the capacity of the building. The capacity of the building is a constant for 2-dimentional buildings and a limit domain for 3-dimentional buildings. If the filtered acceleration exceeds the building’s capacity, the building is predicted to collapse. Otherwise, it is expected to survive the ground motion.

The parameters used in PFA model, which include fundamental period, global ductility and lateral capacity, can be obtained either from numerical analysis or interpolation based on the reference building system proposed in this thesis.

The PFA collapse prediction model greatly reduces computational complexity while archiving good accuracy. It is verified by FEM simulations of 13 frame building models and 150 ground motion records.

Based on the developed collapse prediction model, we propose to use PFA (Peak Filtered Acceleration) as a new ground motion intensity measure for collapse prediction. We compare PFA with traditional intensity measures PGA, PGV, PGD, and Sa in collapse prediction and find that PFA has the best performance among all the intensity measures.

We also provide a close form in term of a vector intensity measure (PGV, PGD) of the PFA collapse prediction model for practical collapse risk assessment.