Quantifying chaos: practical estimation of the correlation dimension

Be it a physical object or a mathematical model, a nonlinear dynamical system can display complicated aperiodic behavior, or "chaos." In many cases, this chaos is associated with motion on a strange attractor in the system's phase space. And the dimension of the strange attractor indicates the effective number of degrees of freedom in the dynamical system.

In this thesis, we investigate numerical issues involved with estimating the dimension of a strange attractor from a finite time series of measurements on the dynamical system.

Of the various definitions of dimension, we argue that the correlation dimension is the most efficiently calculable and we remark further that it is the most commonly calculated. We are concerned with the practical problems that arise in attempting to compute the correlation dimension. We deal with geometrical effects (due to the inexact self-similarity of the attractor), dynamical effects (due to the nonindependence of points generated by the dynamical system that defines the attractor), and statistical effects (due to the finite number of points that sample the attractor). We propose a modification of the standard algorithm, which eliminates a specific effect due to autocorrelation, and a new implementation of the correlation algorithm, which is computationally efficient.

Finally, we apply the algorithm to chaotic data from the Caltech tokamak and the Texas tokamak (TEXT); we conclude that plasma turbulence is not a low- dimensional phenomenon.

Equilibrium in dynamic economic models

The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.

Experimental and finite element studies of a large arch dam

Forced vibration field tests and finite element studies have been conducted on Morrow Point (arch) Dam in order to investigate dynamic dam-water interaction and water compressibility. Design of the data acquisition system incorporates several special features to retrieve both amplitude and phase of the response in a low signal to noise environment. These features contributed to the success of the experimental program which, for the first time, produced field evidence of water compressibility; this effect seems to play a significant role only in the symmetric response of Morrow Point Dam in the frequency range examined. In the accompanying analysis, frequency response curves for measured accelerations and water pressures as well as their resonating shapes are compared to predictions from the current state-of-the-art finite element model for which water compressibility is both included and neglected. Calibration of the numerical model employs the antisymmetric response data since they are only slightly affected by water compressibility, and, after calibration, good agreement to the data is obtained whether or not water compressibility is included. In the effort to reproduce the symmetric response data, on which water compressibility has a significant influence, the calibrated model shows better correlation when water compressibility is included, but the agreement is still inadequate. Similar results occur using data obtained previously by others at a low water level. A successful isolation of the fundamental water resonance from the experimental data shows significantly different features from those of the numerical water model, indicating possible inaccuracy in the assumed geometry and/or boundary conditions for the reservoir. However, the investigation does suggest possible directions in which the numerical model can be improved.

Nonexistence of looping trajectories in hydromagnetic waves of finite amplitude. Breaking of waves in a cold collision-free plasma in a magnetic field. On stabilities of periodic waves in a cold collision-free plasma in a magnetic field.

This dissertation consists of three parts. In Part I, it is shown that looping trajectories cannot exist in finite amplitude stationary hydromagnetic waves propagating across a magnetic field in a quasi-neutral cold collision-free plasma. In Part II, time-dependent solutions in series expansion are presented for the magnetic piston problem, which describes waves propagating into a quasi-neutral cold collision-free plasma, ensuing from magnetic disturbances on the boundary of the plasma. The expansion is equivalent to Picard's successive approximations. It is then shown that orbit crossings of plasma particles occur on the boundary for strong disturbances and inside the plasma for weak disturbances. In Part III, the existence of periodic waves propagating at an arbitrary angle to the magnetic field in a plasma is demonstrated by Stokes expansions in amplitude. Then stability analysis is made for such periodic waves with respect to side-band frequency disturbances. It is shown that waves of slow mode are unstable whereas waves of fast mode are stable if the frequency is below the cutoff frequency. The cutoff frequency depends on the propagation angle. For longitudinal propagation the cutoff frequency is equal to one-fourth of the electron's gyrofrequency. For transverse propagation the cutoff frequency is so high that waves of all frequencies are stable.

The instability of fluids with time dependent heating

The stability of a fluid having a non-uniform temperature stratification is examined analytically for the response of infinitesimal disturbances. The growth rates of disturbances have been established for a semi-infinite fluid for Rayleigh numbers of 10³, 10⁴, and 10⁵ and for Prandtl numbers of 7.0 and 0.7.

The critical Rayleigh number for a semi-infinite fluid, based on the effective fluid depth, is found to be 32, while it is shown that for a finite fluid layer the critical Rayleigh number depends on the rate of heating. The minimum critical Rayleigh number, based on the depth of a fluid layer, is found to be 1340.

The stability of a finite fluid layer is examined for two special forms of heating. The first is constant flux heating, while in the second, the temperature of the lower surface is increased uniformly in time. In both cases, it is shown that for moderate rates of heating the critical Rayleigh number is reduced, over the value for very slow heating, while for very rapid heating the critical Rayleigh number is greatly increased. These results agree with published experimental observations.

The question of steady, non-cellular convection is given qualitative consideration. It is concluded that, although the motion may originate from infinitesimal disturbances during non-uniform heating, the final flow field is intrinsically non-linear.

Pulsed neutron measurements in two adjacent finite media

The pulsed neutron technique has been used to investigate the decay of thermal neutrons in two adjacent water-borated water finite media. Experiments were performed with a 6x6x6 inches cubic assembly divided in two halves by a thin membrane and filled with pure distilled water on one side and borated water on the other side.

The fundamental decay constant was measured versus the boric acid concentration in the poisoned medium. The experimental results showed good agreement with the predictions of the time dependent diffusion model. It was assumed that the addition of boric acid increases the absorption cross section of the poisoned medium without affecting its diffusion properties: In these conditions, space-energy separability and the concept of an “effective” buckling as derived from diffusion theory were introduced. Their validity was supported by the experimental results.

Measurements were performed with the absorption cross section of the poisoned medium increasing gradually up to 16 times its initial value. Extensive use of the IBM 7090-7094 Computing facility was made to analyze properly the decay data (Frantic Code). Attention was given to the count loss correction scheme and the handling of the statistics involved. Fitting of the experimental results into the analytical form predicted by the diffusion model led to

Ʃ_av = 4721 sec^-1 (±150)

D_o = 35972 cm²sec^-1 (±800) for water at 21˚C

C (given) = 3420 cm⁴sec^-1

These values, when compared with published data, show that the diffusion model is adequate in describing the experiment.

The oculomotor system: (1) Vertical-horizontal interaction and signal recognition, (2) Time delays and power spectra

In the first section of this thesis, two-dimensional properties of the human eye movement control system were studied. The vertical - horizontal interaction was investigated by using a two-dimensional target motion consisting of a sinusoid in one of the directions vertical or horizontal, and low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion of variable bandwidth (and hence information content) in the orthogonal direction. It was found that the random motion reduced the efficiency of the sinusoidal tracking. However, the sinusoidal tracking was only slightly dependent on the bandwidth of the random motion. Thus the system should be thought of as consisting of two independent channels with a small amount of mutual cross-talk.

These target motions were then rotated to discover whether or not the system is capable of recognizing the two-component nature of the target motion. That is, the sinusoid was presented along an oblique line (neither vertical nor horizontal) with the random motion orthogonal to it. The system did not simply track the vertical and horizontal components of motion, but rotated its frame of reference so that its two tracking channels coincided with the directions of the two target motion components. This recognition occurred even when the two orthogonal motions were both random, but with different bandwidths.

In the second section, time delays, prediction and power spectra were examined. Time delays were calculated in response to various periodic signals, various bandwidths of narrow-band Gaussian random motions and sinusoids. It was demonstrated that prediction occurred only when the target motion was periodic, and only if the harmonic content was such that the signal was sufficiently narrow-band. It appears as if general periodic motions are split into predictive and non-predictive components.

For unpredictable motions, the relationship between the time delay and the average speed of the retinal image was linear. Based on this I proposed a model explaining the time delays for both random and periodic motions. My experiments did not prove that the system is sampled data, or that it is continuous. However, the model can be interpreted as representative of a sample data system whose sample interval is a function of the target motion.

It was shown that increasing the bandwidth of the low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion resulted in an increase of the eye movement bandwidth. Some properties of the eyeball-muscle dynamics and the extraocular muscle "active state tension" were derived.