On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

Sustainable IT and IT for sustainability

Energy and sustainability have become one of the most critical issues of our generation. While the abundant potential of renewable energy such as solar and wind provides a real opportunity for sustainability, their intermittency and uncertainty present a daunting operating challenge. This thesis aims to develop analytical models, deployable algorithms, and real systems to enable efficient integration of renewable energy into complex distributed systems with limited information.

The first thrust of the thesis is to make IT systems more sustainable by facilitating the integration of renewable energy into these systems. IT represents the fastest growing sectors in energy usage and greenhouse gas pollution. Over the last decade there are dramatic improvements in the energy efficiency of IT systems, but the efficiency improvements do not necessarily lead to reduction in energy consumption because more servers are demanded. Further, little effort has been put in making IT more sustainable, and most of the improvements are from improved "engineering" rather than improved "algorithms". In contrast, my work focuses on developing algorithms with rigorous theoretical analysis that improve the sustainability of IT. In particular, this thesis seeks to exploit the flexibilities of cloud workloads both (i) in time by scheduling delay-tolerant workloads and (ii) in space by routing requests to geographically diverse data centers. These opportunities allow data centers to adaptively respond to renewable availability, varying cooling efficiency, and fluctuating energy prices, while still meeting performance requirements. The design of the enabling algorithms is however very challenging because of limited information, non-smooth objective functions and the need for distributed control. Novel distributed algorithms are developed with theoretically provable guarantees to enable the "follow the renewables" routing. Moving from theory to practice, I helped HP design and implement industry's first Net-zero Energy Data Center.

The second thrust of this thesis is to use IT systems to improve the sustainability and efficiency of our energy infrastructure through data center demand response. The main challenges as we integrate more renewable sources to the existing power grid come from the fluctuation and unpredictability of renewable generation. Although energy storage and reserves can potentially solve the issues, they are very costly. One promising alternative is to make the cloud data centers demand responsive. The potential of such an approach is huge.

To realize this potential, we need adaptive and distributed control of cloud data centers and new electricity market designs for distributed electricity resources. My work is progressing in both directions. In particular, I have designed online algorithms with theoretically guaranteed performance for data center operators to deal with uncertainties under popular demand response programs. Based on local control rules of customers, I have further designed new pricing schemes for demand response to align the interests of customers, utility companies, and the society to improve social welfare.

Optimization and Control of Power Flow in Distribution Networks

Climate change is arguably the most critical issue facing our generation and the next. As we move towards a sustainable future, the grid is rapidly evolving with the integration of more and more renewable energy resources and the emergence of electric vehicles. In particular, large scale adoption of residential and commercial solar photovoltaics (PV) plants is completely changing the traditional slowly-varying unidirectional power flow nature of distribution systems. High share of intermittent renewables pose several technical challenges, including voltage and frequency control. But along with these challenges, renewable generators also bring with them millions of new DC-AC inverter controllers each year. These fast power electronic devices can provide an unprecedented opportunity to increase energy efficiency and improve power quality, if combined with well-designed inverter control algorithms. The main goal of this dissertation is to develop scalable power flow optimization and control methods that achieve system-wide efficiency, reliability, and robustness for power distribution networks of future with high penetration of distributed inverter-based renewable generators.

Proposed solutions to power flow control problems in the literature range from fully centralized to fully local ones. In this thesis, we will focus on the two ends of this spectrum. In the first half of this thesis (chapters 2 and 3), we seek optimal solutions to voltage control problems provided a centralized architecture with complete information. These solutions are particularly important for better understanding the overall system behavior and can serve as a benchmark to compare the performance of other control methods against. To this end, we first propose a branch flow model (BFM) for the analysis and optimization of radial and meshed networks. This model leads to a new approach to solve optimal power flow (OPF) problems using a two step relaxation procedure, which has proven to be both reliable and computationally efficient in dealing with the non-convexity of power flow equations in radial and weakly-meshed distribution networks. We will then apply the results to fast time- scale inverter var control problem and evaluate the performance on real-world circuits in Southern California Edison’s service territory.

The second half (chapters 4 and 5), however, is dedicated to study local control approaches, as they are the only options available for immediate implementation on today’s distribution networks that lack sufficient monitoring and communication infrastructure. In particular, we will follow a reverse and forward engineering approach to study the recently proposed piecewise linear volt/var control curves. It is the aim of this dissertation to tackle some key problems in these two areas and contribute by providing rigorous theoretical basis for future work.