Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Tectonics of Central and Eastern California, Late Cretaceous to Modern

The Late Cretaceous to Modern tectonic evolution of central and eastern California has been studied for many decades, with published work generally focusing on specific geographic areas and time periods. The resulting literature leaves the reader, whether graduate student, faculty member, or layperson, wondering what a coherently integrated tectonic evolution might look like, or if it would be at all possible to undertake such a task. This question is the common thread weaving together the four studies presented in this work. Each of the individual chapters is targeted at a specific location and time period which I have identified as a critical yet missing link in piecing together a coherent regional tectonic story. In the first chapter, we re-discover a set of major west down normal faults running along the western slope of the southern Sierra, the western Sierra fault system (WSFS). We show that one of these faults was offset by roughly a kilometer in Eocene time, and that this activity directly resulted in the incision of much of the relief present in modern Kings Canyon. The second chapter is a basement landscape and thermochronometric study of the hanging wall of the WSFS. New data from this study area provide a significant westward expansion of basement thermochronometric data from the southern Sierra Nevada batholith. Thermal modeling results of these data provide critical new constraints on the early exhumation of the Sierra Nevada batholith, and in the context of the results from Chapter I, allow us to piece together a coherent chronology of tectonic forcings and landscape evolution for the southern Sierra Nevada. In the third chapter, I present a study of the surface rupture of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake, a dextral strike slip event on a fault in the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). New constraints on the active tectonics in ECSZ will help future studies better resolve the enigmatic mismatch between geologic slip rates and geodetically determined regional rates. Chapter IV is a magnetostratigraphic pilot study of the Paleocene Goler Formation. This study provides strong evidence that continued investigation will yield new constraints on the depositional age of the only fossil-bearing Paleocene terrestrial deposit on the west coast of North America. Each of these studies aims to provide important new data at critical missing links in the tectonic evolution of central and eastern California.