Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Magnetospheric access of solar particles and the configuration of the distant geomagnetic field

The access of 1.2-40 MeV protons and 0.4-1.0 MeV electrons from interplanetary space to the polar cap regions has been investigated with an experiment on board a low altitude, polar orbiting satellite (OG0-4).

A total of 333 quiet time observations of the electron polar cap boundary give a mapping of the boundary between open and closed geomagnetic field lines which is an order of magnitude more comprehensive than previously available.

Persistent features (north/south asymmetries) in the polar cap proton flux, which are established as normal during solar proton events, are shown to be associated with different flux levels on open geomagnetic field lines than on closed field lines. The pole in which these persistent features are observed is strongly correlated to the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and uncorrelated to the north/south component of this field. The features were observed in the north (south) pole during a negative (positive) sector 91% of the time, while the solar field had a southward component only 54% of the time. In addition, changes in the north/south component have no observable effect on the persistent features.

Observations of events associated with co-rotating regions of enhanced proton flux in interplanetary space are used to establish the characteristics of the 1.2 - 40 MeV proton access windows: the access window for low polar latitudes is near the earth, that for one high polar latitude region is ~250 R_⊕ behind the earth, while that for the other high polar latitude region is ~1750 R_⊕ behind the earth. All of the access windows are of approximately the same extent (~120 R_⊕). The following phenomena contribute to persistent polar cap features: limited interplanetary regions of enhanced flux propagating past the earth, radial gradients in the interplanetary flux, and anisotropies in the interplanetary flux.

These results are compared to the particle access predictions of the distant geomagnetic tail configurations proposed by Michel and Dessler, Dungey, and Frank. The data are consistent with neither the model of Michel and Dessler nor that of Dungey. The model of Frank can yield a consistent access window configuration provided the following constraints are satisfied: the merging rate for open field lines at one polar neutral point must be ~5 times that at the other polar neutral point, related to the solar magnetic field configuration in a consistent fashion, the migration time for open field lines to move across the polar cap region must be the same in both poles, and the open field line merging rate at one of the polar neutral points must be at least as large as that required for almost all the open field lines to have merged in 0 (one hour). The possibility of satisfying these constraints is investigated in some detail.

The role played by interplanetary anisotropies in the observation of persistent polar cap features is discussed. Special emphasis is given to the problem of non-adiabatic particle entry through regions where the magnetic field is changing direction. The degree to which such particle entry can be assumed to be nearly adiabatic is related to the particle rigidity, the angle through which the field turns, and the rate at which the field changes direction; this relationship is established for the case of polar cap observations.

Plasma loop and strapping field dynamics: reproducing solar eruptions in the laboratory

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are dramatic eruptions of large, plasma structures from the Sun. These eruptions are important because they can harm astronauts, damage electrical infrastructure, and cause auroras. A mysterious feature of these eruptions is that plasma-filled solar flux tubes first evolve slowly, but then suddenly erupt. One model, torus instability, predicts an explosive-like transition from slow expansion to fast acceleration, if the spatial decay of the ambient magnetic field exceeds a threshold.

We create arched, plasma filled, magnetic flux ropes similar to CMEs. Small, independently-powered auxiliary coils placed inside the vacuum chamber produce magnetic fields above the decay threshold that are strong enough to act on the plasma. When the strapping field is not too strong and not too weak, expansion force build up while the flux rope is in the strapping field region. When the flux rope moves to a critical height, the plasma accelerates quickly, corresponding to the observed slow-rise to fast-acceleration of most solar eruptions. This behavior is in agreement with the predictions of torus instability.

Historically, eruptions have been separated into gradual CMEs and impulsive CMEs, depending on the acceleration profile. Recent numerical studies question this separation. One study varies the strapping field profile to produce gradual eruptions and impulsive eruptions, while another study varies the temporal profile of the voltage applied to the flux tube footpoints to produce the two eruption types. Our experiment reproduced these different eruptions by changing the strapping field magnitude, and the temporal profile of the current trace. This suggests that the same physics underlies both types of CME and that the separation between impulsive and gradual classes of eruption is artificial.