An economic air pollution control model-application : photochemical smog in Los Angeles County in 1975

An economic air pollution control model, which determines the least cost of reaching various air quality levels, is formulated. The model takes the form of a general, nonlinear, mathematical programming problem. Primary contaminant emission levels are the independent variables. The objective function is the cost of attaining various emission levels and is to be minimized subject to constraints that given air quality levels be attained.

The model is applied to a simplified statement of the photochemical smog problem in Los Angeles County in 1975 with emissions specified by a two-dimensional vector, total reactive hydrocarbon, (RHC), and nitrogen oxide, (NO_x), emissions. Air quality, also two-dimensional, is measured by the expected number of days per year that nitrogen dioxide, (NO₂), and mid-day ozone, (O₃), exceed standards in Central Los Angeles.

The minimum cost of reaching various emission levels is found by a linear programming model. The base or "uncontrolled" emission levels are those that will exist in 1975 with the present new car control program and with the degree of stationary source control existing in 1971. Controls, basically "add-on devices", are considered here for used cars, aircraft, and existing stationary sources. It is found that with these added controls, Los Angeles County emission levels [(1300 tons/day RHC, 1000 tons /day NO_x) in 1969] and [(670 tons/day RHC, 790 tons/day NO_x) at the base 1975 level], can be reduced to 260 tons/day RHC (minimum RHC program) and 460 tons/day NO_x (minimum NO_x program).

"Phenomenological" or statistical air quality models provide the relationship between air quality and emissions. These models estimate the relationship by using atmospheric monitoring data taken at one (yearly) emission level and by using certain simple physical assumptions, (e. g., that emissions are reduced proportionately at all points in space and time). For NO₂, (concentrations assumed proportional to NO_x emissions), it is found that standard violations in Central Los Angeles, (55 in 1969), can be reduced to 25, 5, and 0 days per year by controlling emissions to 800, 550, and 300 tons /day, respectively. A probabilistic model reveals that RHC control is much more effective than NO_x control in reducing Central Los Angeles ozone. The 150 days per year ozone violations in 1969 can be reduced to 75, 30, 10, and 0 days per year by abating RHC emissions to 700, 450, 300, and 150 tons/day, respectively, (at the 1969 NO_x emission level).

The control cost-emission level and air quality-emission level relationships are combined in a graphical solution of the complete model to find the cost of various air quality levels. Best possible air quality levels with the controls considered here are 8 O₃ and 10 NO₂ violations per year (minimum ozone program) or 25 O₃ and 3 NO₂ violations per year (minimum NO₂ program) with an annualized cost of $230,000,000 (above the estimated $150,000,000 per year for the new car control program for Los Angeles County motor vehicles in 1975).

The needle in the hundred square degree haystack: The hunt for binary neutron star mergers with LIGO and Palomar Transient Factory

The Advanced LIGO and Virgo experiments are poised to detect gravitational waves (GWs) directly for the first time this decade. The ultimate prize will be joint observation of a compact binary merger in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels. However, GW sky locations that are uncertain by hundreds of square degrees will pose a challenge. I describe a real-time detection pipeline and a rapid Bayesian parameter estimation code that will make it possible to search promptly for optical counterparts in Advanced LIGO. Having analyzed a comprehensive population of simulated GW sources, we describe the sky localization accuracy that the GW detector network will achieve as each detector comes online and progresses toward design sensitivity. Next, in preparation for the optical search with the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF), we have developed a unique capability to detect optical afterglows of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM). Its comparable error regions offer a close parallel to the Advanced LIGO problem, but Fermi's unique access to MeV-GeV photons and its near all-sky coverage may allow us to look at optical afterglows in a relatively unexplored part of the GRB parameter space. We present the discovery and broadband follow-up observations (X-ray, UV, optical, millimeter, and radio) of eight GBM-IPTF afterglows. Two of the bursts (GRB 130702A / iPTF13bxl and GRB 140606B / iPTF14bfu) are at low redshift (z=0.145 and z = 0.384, respectively), are sub-luminous with respect to "standard" cosmological bursts, and have spectroscopically confirmed broad-line type Ic supernovae. These two bursts are possibly consistent with mildly relativistic shocks breaking out from the progenitor envelopes rather than the standard mechanism of internal shocks within an ultra-relativistic jet. On a technical level, the GBM--IPTF effort is a prototype for locating and observing optical counterparts of GW events in Advanced LIGO with the Zwicky Transient Facility.