Essays in behavioral and neuro-economics

This thesis examines foundational questions in behavioral economics—also called psychology and economics—and the neural foundations of varied sources of utility. We have three primary aims: First, to provide the field of behavioral economics with psychological theories of behavior that are derived from neuroscience and to use those theories to identify novel evidence for behavioral biases. Second, we provide neural and micro foundations of behavioral preferences that give rise to well-documented empirical phenomena in behavioral economics. Finally, we show how a deep understanding of the neural foundations of these behavioral preferences can feed back into our theories of social preferences and reference-dependent utility.

The first chapter focuses on classical conditioning and its application in identifying the psychological underpinnings of a pricing phenomenon. We return to classical conditioning again in the third chapter where we use fMRI to identify varied sources of utility—here, reference dependent versus direct utility—and cross-validate our interpretation with a conditioning experiment. The second chapter engages social preferences and, more broadly, causative utility (wherein the decision-maker derives utility from making or avoiding particular choices).

Proton transfers at the air-water interface

Proton transfer reactions at the interface of water with hydrophobic media, such as air or lipids, are ubiquitous on our planet. These reactions orchestrate a host of vital phenomena in the environment including, for example, acidification of clouds, enzymatic catalysis, chemistries of aerosol and atmospheric gases, and bioenergetic transduction. Despite their importance, however, quantitative details underlying these interactions have remained unclear. Deeper insight into these interfacial reactions is also required in addressing challenges in green chemistry, improved water quality, self-assembly of materials, the next generation of micro-nanofluidics, adhesives, coatings, catalysts, and electrodes. This thesis describes experimental and theoretical investigation of proton transfer reactions at the air-water interface as a function of hydration gradients, electrochemical potential, and electrostatics. Since emerging insights hold at the lipid-water interface as well, this work is also expected to aid understanding of complex biological phenomena associated with proton migration across membranes.

Based on our current understanding, it is known that the physicochemical properties of the gas-phase water are drastically different from those of bulk water. For example, the gas-phase hydronium ion, H₃O⁺(g), can protonate most (non-alkane) organic species, whereas H₃O⁺(aq) can neutralize only relatively strong bases. Thus, to be able to understand and engineer water-hydrophobe interfaces, it is imperative to investigate this fluctuating region of molecular thickness wherein the ‘function’ of chemical species transitions from one phase to another via steep gradients in hydration, dielectric constant, and density. Aqueous interfaces are difficult to approach by current experimental techniques because designing experiments to specifically sample interfacial layers (< 1 nm thick) is an arduous task. While recent advances in surface-specific spectroscopies have provided valuable information regarding the structure of aqueous interfaces, but structure alone is inadequate to decipher the function. By similar analogy, theoretical predictions based on classical molecular dynamics have remained limited in their scope.

Recently, we have adapted an analytical electrospray ionization mass spectrometer (ESIMS) for probing reactions at the gas-liquid interface in real time. This technique is direct, surface-specific,and provides unambiguous mass-to-charge ratios of interfacial species. With this innovation, we have been able to investigate the following:

1. How do anions mediate proton transfers at the air-water interface?

2. What is the basis for the negative surface potential at the air-water interface?

3. What is the mechanism for catalysis ‘on-water’?

In addition to our experiments with the ESIMS, we applied quantum mechanics and molecular dynamics to simulate our experiments toward gaining insight at the molecular scale. Our results unambiguously demonstrated the role of electrostatic-reorganization of interfacial water during proton transfer events. With our experimental and theoretical results on the ‘superacidity’ of the surface of mildly acidic water, we also explored implications on atmospheric chemistry and green chemistry. Our most recent results explained the basis for the negative charge of the air-water interface and showed that the water-hydrophobe interface could serve as a site for enhanced autodissociation of water compared to the condensed phase.

Essays on economics networks

This thesis belongs to the growing field of economic networks. In particular, we develop three essays in which we study the problem of bargaining, discrete choice representation, and pricing in the context of networked markets. Despite analyzing very different problems, the three essays share the common feature of making use of a network representation to describe the market of interest.

In Chapter 1 we present an analysis of bargaining in networked markets. We make two contributions. First, we characterize market equilibria in a bargaining model, and find that players' equilibrium payoffs coincide with their degree of centrality in the network, as measured by Bonacich's centrality measure. This characterization allows us to map, in a simple way, network structures into market equilibrium outcomes, so that payoffs dispersion in networked markets is driven by players' network positions. Second, we show that the market equilibrium for our model converges to the so called eigenvector centrality measure. We show that the economic condition for reaching convergence is that the players' discount factor goes to one. In particular, we show how the discount factor, the matching technology, and the network structure interact in a very particular way in order to see the eigenvector centrality as the limiting case of our market equilibrium.

We point out that the eigenvector approach is a way of finding the most central or relevant players in terms of the “global” structure of the network, and to pay less attention to patterns that are more “local”. Mathematically, the eigenvector centrality captures the relevance of players in the bargaining process, using the eigenvector associated to the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of a given network. Thus our result may be viewed as an economic justification of the eigenvector approach in the context of bargaining in networked markets.

As an application, we analyze the special case of seller-buyer networks, showing how our framework may be useful for analyzing price dispersion as a function of sellers and buyers' network positions.

Finally, in Chapter 3 we study the problem of price competition and free entry in networked markets subject to congestion effects. In many environments, such as communication networks in which network flows are allocated, or transportation networks in which traffic is directed through the underlying road architecture, congestion plays an important role. In particular, we consider a network with multiple origins and a common destination node, where each link is owned by a firm that sets prices in order to maximize profits, whereas users want to minimize the total cost they face, which is given by the congestion cost plus the prices set by firms. In this environment, we introduce the notion of Markovian traffic equilibrium to establish the existence and uniqueness of a pure strategy price equilibrium, without assuming that the demand functions are concave nor imposing particular functional forms for the latency functions. We derive explicit conditions to guarantee existence and uniqueness of equilibria. Given this existence and uniqueness result, we apply our framework to study entry decisions and welfare, and establish that in congested markets with free entry, the number of firms exceeds the social optimum.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

An economic air pollution control model-application : photochemical smog in Los Angeles County in 1975

An economic air pollution control model, which determines the least cost of reaching various air quality levels, is formulated. The model takes the form of a general, nonlinear, mathematical programming problem. Primary contaminant emission levels are the independent variables. The objective function is the cost of attaining various emission levels and is to be minimized subject to constraints that given air quality levels be attained.

The model is applied to a simplified statement of the photochemical smog problem in Los Angeles County in 1975 with emissions specified by a two-dimensional vector, total reactive hydrocarbon, (RHC), and nitrogen oxide, (NO_x), emissions. Air quality, also two-dimensional, is measured by the expected number of days per year that nitrogen dioxide, (NO₂), and mid-day ozone, (O₃), exceed standards in Central Los Angeles.

The minimum cost of reaching various emission levels is found by a linear programming model. The base or "uncontrolled" emission levels are those that will exist in 1975 with the present new car control program and with the degree of stationary source control existing in 1971. Controls, basically "add-on devices", are considered here for used cars, aircraft, and existing stationary sources. It is found that with these added controls, Los Angeles County emission levels [(1300 tons/day RHC, 1000 tons /day NO_x) in 1969] and [(670 tons/day RHC, 790 tons/day NO_x) at the base 1975 level], can be reduced to 260 tons/day RHC (minimum RHC program) and 460 tons/day NO_x (minimum NO_x program).

"Phenomenological" or statistical air quality models provide the relationship between air quality and emissions. These models estimate the relationship by using atmospheric monitoring data taken at one (yearly) emission level and by using certain simple physical assumptions, (e. g., that emissions are reduced proportionately at all points in space and time). For NO₂, (concentrations assumed proportional to NO_x emissions), it is found that standard violations in Central Los Angeles, (55 in 1969), can be reduced to 25, 5, and 0 days per year by controlling emissions to 800, 550, and 300 tons /day, respectively. A probabilistic model reveals that RHC control is much more effective than NO_x control in reducing Central Los Angeles ozone. The 150 days per year ozone violations in 1969 can be reduced to 75, 30, 10, and 0 days per year by abating RHC emissions to 700, 450, 300, and 150 tons/day, respectively, (at the 1969 NO_x emission level).

The control cost-emission level and air quality-emission level relationships are combined in a graphical solution of the complete model to find the cost of various air quality levels. Best possible air quality levels with the controls considered here are 8 O₃ and 10 NO₂ violations per year (minimum ozone program) or 25 O₃ and 3 NO₂ violations per year (minimum NO₂ program) with an annualized cost of $230,000,000 (above the estimated $150,000,000 per year for the new car control program for Los Angeles County motor vehicles in 1975).

I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.

Oxidation of Volatile Organic Compounds in Aqueous Solution and at the Air-water Interface of Aqueous Microdroplets

Isoprene (ISO),the most abundant non-methane VOC, is the major contributor to secondary organic aerosols (SOA) formation. The mechanisms involved in such transformation, however, are not fully understood. Current mechanisms, which are based on the oxidation of ISO in the gas-phase, underestimate SOA yields. The heightened awareness that ISO is only partially processed in the gas-phase has turned attention to heterogeneous processes as alternative pathways toward SOA.

During my research project, I investigated the photochemical oxidation of isoprene in bulk water. Below, I will report on the λ > 305 nm photolysis of H₂O₂ in dilute ISO solutions. This process yields C₁₀H₁₅OH species as primary products, whose formation both requires and is inhibited by O₂. Several isomers of C₁₀H₁₅OH were resolved by reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography and detected as MH⁺ (m/z = 153) and MH⁺-18 (m/z = 135) signals by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry. This finding is consistent with the addition of ·OH to ISO, followed by HO-ISO· reactions with ISO (in competition with O₂) leading to second generation HO(ISO)₂· radicals that terminate as C₁₀H₁₅OH via β-H abstraction by O₂.

It is not generally realized that chemistry on the surface of water cannot be deduced, extrapolated or translated to those in bulk gas and liquid phases. The water density drops a thousand-fold within a few Angstroms through the gas-liquid interfacial region and therefore hydrophobic VOCs such as ISO will likely remain in these relatively 'dry' interfacial water layers rather than proceed into bulk water. In previous experiments from our laboratory, it was found that gas-phase olefins can be protonated on the surface of pH < 4 water. This phenomenon increases the residence time of gases at the interface, an event that makes them increasingly susceptible to interaction with gaseous atmospheric oxidants such as ozone and hydroxyl radicals.

In order to test this hypothesis, I carried out experiments in which ISO(g) collides with the surface of aqueous microdroplets of various compositions. Herein I report that ISO(g) is oxidized into soluble species via Fenton chemistry on the surface of aqueous Fe(II)Cl₂ solutions simultaneously exposed to H₂O₂(g). Monomer and oligomeric species (ISO)1-8H⁺ were detected via online electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) on the surface of pH ~ 2 water, and were then oxidized into a suite of products whose combined yields exceed ~ 5% of (ISO)1-8H⁺. MS/MS analysis revealed that products mainly consisted of alcohols, ketones, epoxides and acids. Our experiments demonstrated that olefins in ambient air may be oxidized upon impact on the surface of Fe-containing aqueous acidic media, such as those of typical to tropospheric aerosols.

Related experiments involving the reaction of ISO(g) with ·OH radicals from the photolysis of dissolved H₂O₂ were also carried out to test the surface oxidation of ISO(g) by photolyzing H₂O₂(aq) at 266 nm at various pH. The products were analyzed via online electrospray ionization mass spectrometry. Similar to our Fenton experiments, we detected (ISO)1-7H⁺ at pH < 4, and new m/z⁺ = 271 and m/z^- = 76 products at pH > 5.

Three essays on economics and information shocks

A person living in an industrialized society has almost no choice but to receive information daily with negative implications for himself or others. His attention will often be drawn to the ups and downs of economic indicators or the alleged misdeeds of leaders and organizations. Reacting to new information is central to economics, but economics typically ignores the affective aspect of the response, for example, of stress or anger. These essays present the results of considering how the affective aspect of the response can influence economic outcomes.

The first chapter presents an experiment in which individuals were presented with information about various non-profit organizations and allowed to take actions that rewarded or punished those organizations. When social interaction was introduced into this environment an asymmetry between rewarding and punishing appeared. The net effects of punishment became greater and more variable, whereas the effects of reward were unchanged. The individuals were more strongly influenced by negative social information and used that information to target unpopular organizations. These behaviors contributed to an increase in inequality among the outcomes of the organizations.

The second and third chapters present empirical studies of reactions to negative information about local economic conditions. Economic factors are among the most prevalent stressors, and stress is known to have numerous negative effects on health. These chapters document localized, transient effects of the announcement of information about large-scale job losses. News of mass layoffs and shut downs of large military bases are found to decrease birth weights and gestational ages among babies born in the affected regions. The effect magnitudes are close to those estimated in similar studies of disasters.

I. The rate and mechanism of the vapor-phase reaction between water and parts-per-million concentrations of nitrogen dioxide. II. The rate and mechanism of the air oxidation of parts-per-million concentrations of nitric oxide in the presence of water vapor.

Part I

A study of the thermal reaction of water vapor and parts-per-million concentrations of nitrogen dioxide was carried out at ambient temperature and at atmospheric pressure. Nitric oxide and nitric acid vapor were the principal products. The initial rate of disappearance of nitrogen dioxide was first order with respect to water vapor and second order with respect to nitrogen dioxide. An initial third-order rate constant of 5.5 (± 0.29) x 10⁴ liter² mole^-2 sec^-1 was found at 25˚C. The rate of reaction decreased with increasing temperature. In the temperature range of 25˚C to 50˚C, an activation energy of -978 (± 20) calories was found.

The reaction did not go to completion. From measurements as the reaction approached equilibrium, the free energy of nitric acid vapor was calculated. This value was -18.58 (± 0.04) kilocalories at 25˚C.

The initial rate of reaction was unaffected by the presence of oxygen and was retarded by the presence of nitric oxide. There were no appreciable effects due to the surface of the reactor. Nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide were monitored by gas chromatography during the reaction.

Part II

The air oxidation of nitric oxide, and the oxidation of nitric oxide in the presence of water vapor, were studied in a glass reactor at ambient temperatures and at atmospheric pressure. The concentration of nitric oxide was less than 100 parts-per-million. The concentration of nitrogen dioxide was monitored by gas chromatography during the reaction.

For the dry oxidation, the third-order rate constant was 1.46 (± 0.03) x 10⁴ liter² mole^-2 sec^-1 at 25˚C. The activation energy, obtained from measurements between 25˚C and 50˚C, was -1.197 (±0.02) kilocalories.

The presence of water vapor during the oxidation caused the formation of nitrous acid vapor when nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide and water vapor combined. By measuring the difference between the concentrations of nitrogen dioxide during the wet and dry oxidations, the rate of formation of nitrous acid vapor was found. The third-order rate constant for the formation of nitrous acid vapor was equal to 1.5 (± 0.5) x 10⁵ liter² mole^-2 sec^-1 at 40˚C. The reaction rate did not change measurably when the temperature was increased to 50˚C. The formation of nitric acid vapor was prevented by keeping the concentration of nitrogen dioxide low.

Surface effects were appreciable for the wet tests. Below 35˚C, the rate of appearance of nitrogen dioxide increased with increasing surface. Above 40˚C, the effect of surface was small.

Mass transfer from a cylinder to an air stream in axisymmetrical flow (an experimental study)

Mass transfer from wetted surfaces on one-inch cylinders with unwetted approach sections was studied experimentally by means of the evaporation of n-octane and n-heptane into an air stream in axisymmetrical flow, for Reynolds numbers from 5,000 to 310,000. A transition from the laminar to the turbulent boundary layer was observed to occur at Reynolds numbers from 10,000 to 15,000. The results were expressed in terms of the Sherwood number as a function of the Reynolds number, the Schmidt number, and the ratio of the unwetted approach length to the total length. Empirical formulas were obtained for both laminar and turbulent regimes. The rates of mass transfer obtained were higher than theoretical and experimental results obtained by previous investigators for mass and heat transfer from flat plates.

Part I: Latent heat of vaporization of n-decane. Part II: Heat and mass transfer from a cylinder placed in a turbulent air stream - Sherwood and Frössling numbers as a function of free stream turbulence level and Reynolds number

Part I

The latent heat of vaporization of n-decane is measured calorimetrically at temperatures between 160° and 340°F. The internal energy change upon vaporization, and the specific volume of the vapor at its dew point are calculated from these data and are included in this work. The measurements are in excellent agreement with available data at 77° and also at 345°F, and are presented in graphical and tabular form.

Part II

Simultaneous material and energy transport from a one-inch adiabatic porous cylinder is studied as a function of free stream Reynolds Number and turbulence level. Experimental data is presented for Reynolds Numbers between 1600 and 15,000 based on the cylinder diameter, and for apparent turbulence levels between 1.3 and 25.0 per cent. n-heptane and n-octane are the evaporating fluids used in this investigation.

Gross Sherwood Numbers are calculated from the data and are in substantial agreement with existing correlations of the results of other workers. The Sherwood Numbers, characterizing mass transfer rates, increase approximately as the 0.55 power of the Reynolds Number. At a free stream Reynolds Number of 3700 the Sherwood Number showed a 40% increase as the apparent turbulence level of the free stream was raised from 1.3 to 25 per cent.

Within the uncertainties involved in the diffusion coefficients used for n-heptane and n-octane, the Sherwood Numbers are comparable for both materials. A dimensionless Frössling Number is computed which characterizes either heat or mass transfer rates for cylinders on a comparable basis. The calculated Frössling Numbers based on mass transfer measurements are in substantial agreement with Frössling Numbers calculated from the data of other workers in heat transfer.

Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.