Finite-Element Simulations of Earthquakes

This thesis discusses simulations of earthquake ground motions using prescribed ruptures and dynamic failure. Introducing sliding degrees of freedom led to an innovative technique for numerical modeling of earthquake sources. This technique allows efficient implementation of both prescribed ruptures and dynamic failure on an arbitrarily oriented fault surface. Off the fault surface the solution of the three-dimensional, dynamic elasticity equation uses well known finite-element techniques. We employ parallel processing to efficiently compute the ground motions in domains containing millions of degrees of freedom.

Using prescribed ruptures we study the sensitivity of long-period near-source ground motions to five earthquake source parameters for hypothetical events on a strike-slip fault (M_w 7.0 to 7.1) and a thrust fault (M_w 6.6 to 7.0). The directivity of the ruptures creates large displacement and velocity pulses in the ground motions in the forward direction. We found a good match between the severity of the shaking and the shape of the near-source factor from the 1997 Uniform Building Code for strike-slip faults and thrust faults with surface rupture. However, for blind thrust faults the peak displacement and velocities occur up-dip from the region with the peak near-source factor. We assert that a simple modification to the formulation of the near-source factor improves the match between the severity of the ground motion and the shape of the near-source factor.

For simulations with dynamic failure on a strike-slip fault or a thrust fault, we examine what constraints must be imposed on the coefficient of friction to produce realistic ruptures under the application of reasonable shear and normal stress distributions with depth. We found that variation of the coefficient of friction with the shear modulus and the depth produces realistic rupture behavior in both homogeneous and layered half-spaces. Furthermore, we observed a dependence of the rupture speed on the direction of propagation and fluctuations in the rupture speed and slip rate as the rupture encountered changes in the stress field. Including such behavior in prescribed ruptures would yield more realistic ground motions.

Solar flare particle propagation--comparison of a new analytic solution with spacecraft measurements

A new analytic solution has been obtained to the complete Fokker-Planck equation for solar flare particle propagation including the effects of convection, energy-change, corotation, and diffusion with ĸ_r = constant and ĸ_Ɵ ∝ r². It is assumed that the particles are injected impulsively at a single point in space, and that a boundary exists beyond which the particles are free to escape. Several solar flare particle events have been observed with the Caltech Solar and Galactic Cosmic Ray Experiment aboard OGO-6. Detailed comparisons of the predictions of the new solution with these observations of 1-70 MeV protons show that the model adequately describes both the rise and decay times, indicating that ĸ_r = constant is a better description of conditions inside 1 AU than is ĸ_r ∝ r. With an outer boundary at 2.7 AU, a solar wind velocity of 400 km/sec, and a radial diffusion coefficient ĸ_r ≈ 2-8 x 10²⁰ cm²/sec, the model gives reasonable fits to the time-profile of 1-10 MeV protons from "classical" flare-associated events. It is not necessary to invoke a scatter-free region near the sun in order to reproduce the fast rise times observed for directly-connected events. The new solution also yields a time-evolution for the vector anisotropy which agrees well with previously reported observations.

In addition, the new solution predicts that, during the decay phase, a typical convex spectral feature initially at energy T_o will move to lower energies at an exponential rate given by T_KINK = T_oexp(-t/Ƭ_KINK). Assuming adiabatic deceleration and a boundary at 2.7 AU, the solution yields Ƭ_KINK ≈ 100h, which is faster than the measured ~200h time constant and slower than the adiabatic rate of ~78h at 1 AU. Two possible explanations are that the boundary is at ~5 AU or that some other energy-change process is operative.