Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Localization of sources of human evoked responses

The evoked response, a signal present in the electro-encephalogram when specific sense modalities are stimulated with brief sensory inputs, has not yet revealed as much about brain function as it apparently promised when first recorded in the late 1940's. One of the problems has been to record the responses at a large number of points on the surface of the head; thus in order to achieve greater spatial resolution than previously attained, a 50-channel recording system was designed to monitor experiments with human visually evoked responses.

Conventional voltage versus time plots of the responses were found inadequate as a means of making qualitative studies of such a large data space. This problem was solved by creating a graphical display of the responses in the form of equipotential maps of the activity at successive instants during the complete response. In order to ascertain the necessary complexity of any models of the responses, factor analytic procedures were used to show that models characterized by only five or six independent parameters could adequately represent the variability in all recording channels.

One type of equivalent source for the responses which meets these specifications is the electrostatic dipole. Two different dipole models were studied: the dipole in a homogeneous sphere and the dipole in a sphere comprised of two spherical shells (of different conductivities) concentric with and enclosing a homogeneous sphere of a third conductivity. These models were used to determine nonlinear least squares fits of dipole parameters to a given potential distribution on the surface of a spherical approximation to the head. Numerous tests of the procedures were conducted with problems having known solutions. After these theoretical studies demonstrated the applicability of the technique, the models were used to determine inverse solutions for the evoked response potentials at various times throughout the responses. It was found that reliable estimates of the location and strength of cortical activity were obtained, and that the two models differed only slightly in their inverse solutions. These techniques enabled information flow in the brain, as indicated by locations and strengths of active sites, to be followed throughout the evoked response.

The interaction of color and luminance in stereoscopic vision

Experiments are described using the random dot stereo patterns devised by Julesz, but substituting various colors and luminances for the usual black and white random squares. The ability to perceive the patterns in depth depends on a luminance difference between the colors used. If two colors are the same luminance, then depth is not perceived although each of the individual squares which make up the patterns is easily seen due to the color difference. This is true for any combination of different colors. If different colors are used for corresponding random squares between the left and right eye patterns, stereopsis is possible for all combinations of binocular rivalry in color, provided the luminance difference is large enough. Rivalry in luminance always precludes stereopsis, regardless of the colors involved.