Random propagation in complex systems : nonlinear matrix recursions and epidemic spread

This dissertation studies long-term behavior of random Riccati recursions and mathematical epidemic model. Riccati recursions are derived from Kalman filtering. The error covariance matrix of Kalman filtering satisfies Riccati recursions. Convergence condition of time-invariant Riccati recursions are well-studied by researchers. We focus on time-varying case, and assume that regressor matrix is random and identical and independently distributed according to given distribution whose probability distribution function is continuous, supported on whole space, and decaying faster than any polynomial. We study the geometric convergence of the probability distribution. We also study the global dynamics of the epidemic spread over complex networks for various models. For instance, in the discrete-time Markov chain model, each node is either healthy or infected at any given time. In this setting, the number of the state increases exponentially as the size of the network increases. The Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution where all the nodes are healthy with probability 1. Since the probability distribution of Markov chain defined on finite state converges to the stationary distribution, this Markov chain model concludes that epidemic disease dies out after long enough time. To analyze the Markov chain model, we study nonlinear epidemic model whose state at any given time is the vector obtained from the marginal probability of infection of each node in the network at that time. Convergence to the origin in the epidemic map implies the extinction of epidemics. The nonlinear model is upper-bounded by linearizing the model at the origin. As a result, the origin is the globally stable unique fixed point of the nonlinear model if the linear upper bound is stable. The nonlinear model has a second fixed point when the linear upper bound is unstable. We work on stability analysis of the second fixed point for both discrete-time and continuous-time models. Returning back to the Markov chain model, we claim that the stability of linear upper bound for nonlinear model is strongly related with the extinction time of the Markov chain. We show that stable linear upper bound is sufficient condition of fast extinction and the probability of survival is bounded by nonlinear epidemic map.

Convex model predictive control for vehicular systems

In this work, the author presents a method called Convex Model Predictive Control (CMPC) to control systems whose states are elements of the rotation matrices SO(n) for n = 2, 3. This is done without charts or any local linearization, and instead is performed by operating over the orbitope of rotation matrices. This results in a novel model predictive control (MPC) scheme without the drawbacks associated with conventional linearization techniques such as slow computation time and local minima. Of particular emphasis is the application to aeronautical and vehicular systems, wherein the method removes many of the trigonometric terms associated with these systems’ state space equations. Furthermore, the method is shown to be compatible with many existing variants of MPC, including obstacle avoidance via Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP).

A Direct Approach to Robustness Optimization

This dissertation reformulates and streamlines the core tools of robustness analysis for linear time invariant systems using now-standard methods in convex optimization. In particular, robust performance analysis can be formulated as a primal convex optimization in the form of a semidefinite program using a semidefinite representation of a set of Gramians. The same approach with semidefinite programming duality is applied to develop a linear matrix inequality test for well-connectedness analysis, and many existing results such as the Kalman-Yakubovich--Popov lemma and various scaled small gain tests are derived in an elegant fashion. More importantly, unlike the classical approach, a decision variable in this novel optimization framework contains all inner products of signals in a system, and an algorithm for constructing an input and state pair of a system corresponding to the optimal solution of robustness optimization is presented based on this information. This insight may open up new research directions, and as one such example, this dissertation proposes a semidefinite programming relaxation of a cardinality constrained variant of the H ∞ norm, which we term sparse H ∞ analysis, where an adversarial disturbance can use only a limited number of channels. Finally, sparse H ∞ analysis is applied to the linearized swing dynamics in order to detect potential vulnerable spots in power networks.

Equivalent differential equations for nonlinear dynamical systems

A technique for obtaining approximate periodic solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations is investigated. The approach is based on defining an equivalent differential equation whose exact periodic solution is known. Emphasis is placed on the mathematical justification of the approach. The relationship between the differential equation error and the solution error is investigated, and, under certain conditions, bounds are obtained on the latter. The technique employed is to consider the equation governing the exact solution error as a two point boundary value problem. Among other things, the analysis indicates that if an exact periodic solution to the original system exists, it is always possible to bound the error by selecting an appropriate equivalent system.

Three equivalence criteria for minimizing the differential equation error are compared, namely, minimum mean square error, minimum mean absolute value error, and minimum maximum absolute value error. The problem is analyzed by way of example, and it is concluded that, on the average, the minimum mean square error is the most appropriate criterion to use.

A comparison is made between the use of linear and cubic auxiliary systems for obtaining approximate solutions. In the examples considered, the cubic system provides noticeable improvement over the linear system in describing periodic response.

A comparison of the present approach to some of the more classical techniques is included. It is shown that certain of the standard approaches where a solution form is assumed can yield erroneous qualitative results.

Stationary random response of multidegree-of-freedom systems

An approximate approach is presented for determining the stationary random response of a general multidegree-of-freedom nonlinear system under stationary Gaussian excitation. This approach relies on defining an equivalent linear system for the nonlinear system. Two particular systems which possess exact solutions have been solved by this approach, and it is concluded that this approach can generate reasonable solutions even for systems with fairly large nonlinearities. The approximate approach has also been applied to two examples for which no exact or approximate solutions were previously available.

Also presented is a matrix algebra approach for determining the stationary random response of a general multidegree-of-freedom linear system. Its derivation involves only matrix algebra and some properties of the instantaneous correlation matricies of a stationary process. It is therefore very direct and straightforward. The application of this matrix algebra approach is in general simpler than that of commonly used approaches.

The astrophysics of strongly interacting systems

This thesis presents investigations in four areas of theoretical astrophysics: the production of sterile neutrino dark matter in the early Universe, the evolution of small-scale baryon perturbations during the epoch of cosmological recombination, the effect of primordial magnetic fields on the redshifted 21-cm emission from the pre-reionization era, and the nonlinear stability of tidally deformed neutron stars.

In the first part of the thesis, we study the asymmetry-driven resonant production of 7 keV-scale sterile neutrino dark matter in the primordial Universe at temperatures T >~ 100 MeV. We report final DM phase space densities that are robust to uncertainties in the nature of the quark-hadron transition. We give transfer functions for cosmological density fluctuations that are useful for N-body simulations. We also provide a public code for the production calculation.

In the second part of the thesis, we study the instability of small-scale baryon pressure sound waves during cosmological recombination. We show that for relevant wavenumbers, inhomogenous recombination is driven by the transport of ionizing continuum and Lyman-alpha photons. We find a maximum growth factor less than ≈ 1.2 in 10⁷ random realizations of initial conditions. The low growth factors are due to the relatively short duration of the recombination epoch.

In the third part of the thesis, we propose a method of measuring weak magnetic fields, of order 10^-19 G (or 10^-21 G if scaled to the present day), with large coherence lengths in the inter galactic medium prior to and during the epoch of cosmic reionization. The method utilizes the Larmor precession of spin-polarized neutral hydrogen in the triplet state of the hyperfine transition. We perform detailed calculations of the microphysics behind this effect, and take into account all the processes that affect the hyperfine transition, including radiative decays, collisions, and optical pumping by Lyman-alpha photons.

In the final part of the thesis, we study the non-linear effects of tidal deformations of neutron stars (NS) in a compact binary. We compute the largest three- and four-mode couplings among the tidal mode and high-order p- and g-modes of similar radial wavenumber. We demonstrate the near-exact cancellation of their effects, and resolve the question of the stability of the tidally deformed NS to leading order. This result is significant for the extraction of binary parameters from gravitational wave observations.

Performance calculations of new propellant systems

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the effect on performance and chamber temperature of adding hydrogen to a propellant system. The systems investigated are:

(1) RFNA-Aniline

(2) Nitromethane

(3) Anhydrous hydrazene-liquid oxygen

Since a systematic investigation of the performance parameters of the RFNA-Aniline system over a wide range of mixture ratios has never been made, it was decided to make these calculations, in addition to the investigations stated above.

The results of the calculations can best be summarized by a study of the figures at the end of the thesis. A few generalizations can be made. The effect of adding hydrogen in small quantities to a high temperature system is to increase the performance considerably without too much change in the chamber temperature. As more hydrogen is added, the percentage increase in performance. If hydrogen is added in large quantities, both the performance curve (effective exhaust velocity) and the chamber temperature curve flatten out.

The behavior discussed above is characteristic of hot propellant systems such as RFNA-Aniline and anhydrous hydrazene. In a low temperature system, such as nitromethane, the effect is quite different. The addition of hydrogen in small quantities causes a rapid decrease in chamber temperature, but the increase in performance is considerably less on a percentage basis. As more hydrogen is added the changes in performance and chamber temperature are almost linear.