Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Electromagnetic wave propagation and scattering in a randomly-inhomogeneous dielectric sphere

Electromagnetic wave propagation and scattering in a sphere composed of an inhomogeneous medium having random variations in its permittivity are studied by utilizing the Born approximation in solving the vector wave equation. The variations in the permittivity are taken to be isotropic and homogeneous, and are spatially characterized by a Gaussian correlation function. Temporal variations in the medium are not considered.

Two particular problems are considered: i) finding the far-zone electric field when an electric or magnetic dipole is situated at the center of the sphere, and ii) finding the electric field at the sphere's center when a linearly polarized plane wave is incident upon it. Expressions are obtained for the mean-square magnitudes of the scattered field components; it is found that the mean of the product of any two transverse components vanishes. The cases where the wavelength is much shorter than correlation distance of the medium and where it is much longer than it are both considered.

Part I. Electric birefringence studies of deoxyribonucleic acids. Part II. Selective dissociation of nucleohistone complexes

Part I

The electric birefringence of dilute DNA solutions has been studied in considerable detail and on a large number of samples, but no new and reliable information was discovered concerning the tertiary structure of DNA. The large number of variables which effect the birefringence results is discussed and suggestions are made for further work on the subject.

The DNA molecules have been aligned in a rapidly alternating (10 to 20 kc/sec) square wave field confirming that the orientation mechanism is that of counterion polarization. A simple empirical relation between the steady state birefringence, Δn_st, and the square of the electric field, E, has been found: Δn_st = E²/(a E² + b), where a = 1/Δn_s and b = (E²/Δn_st)_E→o. Δn_s is the birefringence extrapolated to infinite field strength.

The molecules show a distribution of relaxation times from 10^-4 to 0.2 sec, which is consistent with expectations for flexible coil molecules. The birefringence and the relaxation times decrease with increasing salt concentrations. They also depend on the field strength and pulse duration in a rather non-reproducible manner, which may be due in part to changes in the composition of the solution or in the molecular structure of the DNA (other than denaturation). Further progress depends on the development of some control over these effects.

Part II

The specificity of the dissociation of reconstituted and native deoxyribonucleohistones (DNH) by monovalent salt solutions has been investigated. A novel zone ultracentrifugation method is used in which the DNH is sedimented as a zone through a preformed salt gradient, superimposed on a stabilizing D₂O (sucrose) density gradient. The results, obtained by scanning the quartz sedimentation tubes in a spectrophotometer, were verified by the conventional, preparative sedimentation technique. Procedures are discussed for the detection of microgram quantities of histones, since low concentrations must be used to prevent excessive aggregation of the DNH.

The data show that major histone fractions are selectively dissociated from DNH by increasing salt concentrations: Lysine rich histone (H I) dissociates gradually between 0.1 and 0.3 F, slightly lysine rich histone (H II) dissociates as a narrow band between 0.35 and 0.5 F, and arginine rich histone (H III, H IV) dissociates gradually above 0.5 F NaClO₄.

The activity of the partially dissociated, native DNH in sustaining RNA synthesis, their mobility and their unusual heat denaturation and renaturation behavior are described. The two-step melting behavior of the material indicates that the histones are non-randomly distributed along the DNA, but the implications are that the uncovered regions are not of gene-size length.

A Multiwavelength Study of the Intracluster Medium and the Characterization of the Multiwavelength Sub/millimeter Inductance Camera

The first part of this thesis combines Bolocam observations of the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect at 140 GHz with X-ray observations from Chandra, strong lensing data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and weak lensing data from HST and Subaru to constrain parametric models for the distribution of dark and baryonic matter in a sample of six massive, dynamically relaxed galaxy clusters. For five of the six clusters, the full multiwavelength dataset is well described by a relatively simple model that assumes spherical symmetry, hydrostatic equilibrium, and entirely thermal pressure support. The multiwavelength analysis yields considerably better constraints on the total mass and concentration compared to analysis of any one dataset individually. The subsample of five galaxy clusters is used to place an upper limit on the fraction of pressure support in the intracluster medium (ICM) due to nonthermal processes, such as turbulent and bulk flow of the gas. We constrain the nonthermal pressure fraction at r500c to be less than 0.11 at 95% confidence, where r500c refers to radius at which the average enclosed density is 500 times the critical density of the Universe. This is in tension with state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations, which predict a nonthermal pressure fraction of approximately 0.25 at r500c for the clusters in this sample.

The second part of this thesis focuses on the characterization of the Multiwavelength Sub/millimeter Inductance Camera (MUSIC), a photometric imaging camera that was commissioned at the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory (CSO) in 2012. MUSIC is designed to have a 14 arcminute, diffraction-limited field of view populated with 576 spatial pixels that are simultaneously sensitive to four bands at 150, 220, 290, and 350 GHz. It is well-suited for studies of dusty star forming galaxies, galaxy clusters via the SZ Effect, and galactic star formation. MUSIC employs a number of novel detector technologies: broadband phased-arrays of slot dipole antennas for beam formation, on-chip lumped element filters for band definition, and Microwave Kinetic Inductance Detectors (MKIDs) for transduction of incoming light to electric signal. MKIDs are superconducting micro-resonators coupled to a feedline. Incoming light breaks apart Cooper pairs in the superconductor, causing a change in the quality factor and frequency of the resonator. This is read out as amplitude and phase modulation of a microwave probe signal centered on the resonant frequency. By tuning each resonator to a slightly different frequency and sending out a superposition of probe signals, hundreds of detectors can be read out on a single feedline. This natural capability for large scale, frequency domain multiplexing combined with relatively simple fabrication makes MKIDs a promising low temperature detector for future kilopixel sub/millimeter instruments. There is also considerable interest in using MKIDs for optical through near-infrared spectrophotometry due to their fast microsecond response time and modest energy resolution. In order to optimize the MKID design to obtain suitable performance for any particular application, it is critical to have a well-understood physical model for the detectors and the sources of noise to which they are susceptible. MUSIC has collected many hours of on-sky data with over 1000 MKIDs. This work studies the performance of the detectors in the context of one such physical model. Chapter 2 describes the theoretical model for the responsivity and noise of MKIDs. Chapter 3 outlines the set of measurements used to calibrate this model for the MUSIC detectors. Chapter 4 presents the resulting estimates of the spectral response, optical efficiency, and on-sky loading. The measured detector response to Uranus is compared to the calibrated model prediction in order to determine how well the model describes the propagation of signal through the full instrument. Chapter 5 examines the noise present in the detector timestreams during recent science observations. Noise due to fluctuations in atmospheric emission dominate at long timescales (less than 0.5 Hz). Fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of the microwave probe signal due to the readout electronics contribute significant 1/f and drift-type noise at shorter timescales. The atmospheric noise is removed by creating a template for the fluctuations in atmospheric emission from weighted averages of the detector timestreams. The electronics noise is removed by using probe signals centered off-resonance to construct templates for the amplitude and phase fluctuations. The algorithms that perform the atmospheric and electronic noise removal are described. After removal, we find good agreement between the observed residual noise and our expectation for intrinsic detector noise over a significant fraction of the signal bandwidth.

I. Electronic processes in α-sulfur. II. Polaron motion in a D.C. electric field

Part I: The mobilities of photo-generated electrons and holes in orthorhombic sulfur are determined by drift mobility techniques. At room temperature electron mobilities between 0.4 cm²/V-sec and 4.8 cm²/V-sec and hole mobilities of about 5.0 cm²/V-sec are reported. The temperature dependence of the electron mobility is attributed to a level of traps whose effective depth is about 0.12 eV. This value is further supported by both the voltage dependence of the space-charge-limited, D.C. photocurrents and the photocurrent versus photon energy measurements.

As the field is increased from 10 kV/cm to 30 kV/cm a second mechanism for electron transport becomes appreciable and eventually dominates. Evidence that this is due to impurity band conduction at an appreciably lower mobility (4.10^-4 cm²/V-sec) is presented. No low mobility hole current could be detected. When fields exceeding 30 kV/cm for electron transport and 35 kV/cm for hole transport are applied, avalanche phenomena are observed. The results obtained are consistent with recent energy gap studies in sulfur.

The theory of the transport of photo-generated carriers is modified to include the case of appreciable thermos-regeneration from the traps in one transit time.

Part II: An explicit formula for the electric field E necessary to accelerate an electron to a steady-state velocity v in a polarizable crystal at arbitrary temperature is determined via two methods utilizing Feynman Path Integrals. No approximation is made regarding the magnitude of the velocity or the strength of the field. However, the actual electron-lattice Coulombic interaction is approximated by a distribution of harmonic oscillator potentials. One may be able to find the “best possible” distribution of oscillators using a variational principle, but we have not been able to find the expected criterion. However, our result is relatively insensitive to the actual distribution of oscillators used, and our E-v relationship exhibits the physical behavior expected for the polaron. Threshold fields for ejecting the electron for the polaron state are calculated for several substances using numerical results for a simple oscillator distribution.

I. The effect of droplet solidification upon two-phase flow in a rocket nozzle. II. A kinetic theory investigation of some condensation-evaporation phenomena by a moment method

Part I:

The perturbation technique developed by Rannie and Marble is used to study the effect of droplet solidification upon two-phase flow in a rocket nozzle. It is shown that under certain conditions an equilibrium flow exists, where the gas and particle phases have the same velocity and temperature at each section of the nozzle. The flow is divided into three regions: the first region, where the particles are all in the form of liquid droplets; a second region, over which the droplets solidify at constant freezing temperature; and a third region, where the particles are all solid. By a perturbation about the equilibrium flow, a solution is obtained for small particle slip velocities using the Stokes drag law and the corresponding approximation for heat transfer between the particle and gas phases. Singular perturbation procedure is required to handle the problem at points where solidification first starts and where it is complete. The effects of solidification are noticeable.

Part II:

When a liquid surface, in contact with only its pure vapor, is not in the thermodynamic equilibrium with it, a net condensation or evaporation of fluid occurs. This phenomenon is studied from a kinetic theory viewpoint by means of moment method developed by Lees. The evaporation-condensation rate is calculated for a spherical droplet and for a liquid sheet, when the temperatures and pressures are not too far removed from their equilibrium values. The solutions are valid for the whole range of Knudsen numbers from the free molecule to the continuum limit. In the continuum limit, the mass flux rate is proportional to the pressure difference alone.

A kinetic theory description for external spherical flows with arbitrary Knudsen number by a moment method

The Maxwell integral equations of transfer are applied to a series of problems involving flows of arbitrary density gases about spheres. As suggested by Lees a two sided Maxwellian-like weighting function containing a number of free parameters is utilized and a sufficient number of partial differential moment equations is used to determine these parameters. Maxwell's inverse fifth-power force law is used to simplify the evaluation of the collision integrals appearing in the moment equations. All flow quantities are then determined by integration of the weighting function which results from the solution of the differential moment system. Three problems are treated: the heat-flux from a slightly heated sphere at rest in an infinite gas; the velocity field and drag of a slowly moving sphere in an unbounded space; the velocity field and drag torque on a slowly rotating sphere. Solutions to the third problem are found to both first and second-order in surface Mach number with the secondary centrifugal fan motion being of particular interest. Singular aspects of the moment method are encountered in the last two problems and an asymptotic study of these difficulties leads to a formal criterion for a "well posed" moment system. The previously unanswered question of just how many moments must be used in a specific problem is now clarified to a great extent.

1. Ultrasonic studies of binary liquid structure in the critical region. Theory and experiment for the 2,6-lutidine/water system. 2. Hartree-Fock calculations of electric polarizabilities of some simple atoms and molecules, and their practicality. 3. Calculation of vibrational transition probabilities in collinear atom-diatom and diatom-diatom collisions with Lennard-Jones interaction

Part 1. Many interesting visual and mechanical phenomena occur in the critical region of fluids, both for the gas-liquid and liquid-liquid transitions. The precise thermodynamic and transport behavior here has some broad consequences for the molecular theory of liquids. Previous studies in this laboratory on a liquid-liquid critical mixture via ultrasonics supported a basically classical analysis of fluid behavior by M. Fixman (e. g., the free energy is assumed analytic in intensive variables in the thermodynamics)--at least when the fluid is not too close to critical. A breakdown in classical concepts is evidenced close to critical, in some well-defined ways. We have studied herein a liquid-liquid critical system of complementary nature (possessing a lower critical mixing or consolute temperature) to all previous mixtures, to look for new qualitative critical behavior. We did not find such new behavior in the ultrasonic absorption ascribable to the critical fluctuations, but we did find extra absorption due to chemical processes (yet these are related to the mixing behavior generating the lower consolute point). We rederived, corrected, and extended Fixman's analysis to interpret our experimental results in these more complex circumstances. The entire account of theory and experiment is prefaced by an extensive introduction recounting the general status of liquid state theory. The introduction provides a context for our present work, and also points out problems deserving attention. Interest in these problems was stimulated by this work but also by work in Part 3.

Part 2. Among variational theories of electronic structure, the Hartree-Fock theory has proved particularly valuable for a practical understanding of such properties as chemical binding, electric multipole moments, and X-ray scattering intensity. It also provides the most tractable method of calculating first-order properties under external or internal one-electron perturbations, either developed explicitly in orders of perturbation theory or in the fully self-consistent method. The accuracy and consistency of first-order properties are poorer than those of zero-order properties, but this is most often due to the use of explicit approximations in solving the perturbed equations, or to inadequacy of the variational basis in size or composition. We have calculated the electric polarizabilities of H₂, He, Li, Be, LiH, and N₂ by Hartree-Fock theory, using exact perturbation theory or the fully self-consistent method, as dictated by convenience. By careful studies on total basis set composition, we obtained good approximations to limiting Hartree-Fock values of polarizabilities with bases of reasonable size. The values for all species, and for each direction in the molecular cases, are within 8% of experiment, or of best theoretical values in the absence of the former. Our results support the use of unadorned Hartree-Pock theory for static polarizabilities needed in interpreting electron-molecule scattering data, collision-induced light scattering experiments, and other phenomena involving experimentally inaccessible polarizabilities.

Part 3. Numerical integration of the close-coupled scattering equations has been carried out to obtain vibrational transition probabilities for some models of the electronically adiabatic H₂-H₂ collision. All the models use a Lennard-Jones interaction potential between nearest atoms in the collision partners. We have analyzed the results for some insight into the vibrational excitation process in its dependence on the energy of collision, the nature of the vibrational binding potential, and other factors. We conclude also that replacement of earlier, simpler models of the interaction potential by the Lennard-Jones form adds very little realism for all the complication it introduces. A brief introduction precedes the presentation of our work and places it in the context of attempts to understand the collisional activation process in chemical reactions as well as some other chemical dynamics.