Characterization of diverse megathrust fault behavior related to seismic supercycles, Mentawai Islands, Sumatra

Long paleoseismic histories are necessary for understanding the full range of behavior of faults, as the most destructive events often have recurrence intervals longer than local recorded history. The Sunda megathrust, the interface along which the Australian plate subducts beneath Southeast Asia, provides an ideal natural laboratory for determining a detailed paleoseismic history over many seismic cycles. The outer-arc islands above the seismogenic portion of the megathrust cyclically rise and subside in response to processes on the underlying megathrust, providing uncommonly good illumination of megathrust behavior. Furthermore, the growth histories of coral microatolls, which record tectonic uplift and subsidence via relative sea level, can be used to investigate the detailed coseismic and interseismic deformation patterns. One particularly interesting area is the Mentawai segment of the megathrust, which has been shown to characteristically fail in a series of ruptures over decades, rather than a single end-to-end rupture. This behavior has been termed a seismic “supercycle.” Prior to the current rupture sequence, which began in 2007, the segment previously ruptured during the 14th century, the late 16th to late 17th century, and most recently during historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. In this study, we examine each of these previous supercycles in turn.

First, we expand upon previous analysis of the 1797–1833 rupture sequence with a comprehensive review of previously published coral microatoll data and the addition of a significant amount of new data. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two great earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–1997 and models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. We derive magnitudes of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the two historical earthquakes, and determine that the 1797 earthquake fundamentally changed the state of coupling on the fault for decades afterward. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they undoubtedly influence the progression of subsequent ruptures, even beyond their own rupture area. This concept is of vital importance for monitoring and forecasting the progression of the modern rupture sequence.

Turning our attention to the 14th century, we present evidence of a shallow slip event in approximately A.D. 1314, which preceded the “conventional” megathrust rupture sequence. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 Pagai Islands earthquake, that are consistent with the large amount of subsidence recorded at our study site. Sea-level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region’s exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.

Finally, we present an outline of the complex intervening rupture sequence that took place in the 16th and 17th centuries, which involved at least five distinct uplift events. We conclude that each of the supercycles had unique features, and all of the types of fault behavior we observe are consistent with highly heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust beneath the south-central Mentawai Islands. We conclude that the heterogeneous distribution of asperities produces terminations and overlap zones between fault ruptures, resulting in the seismic “supercycle” phenomenon.

Frictional properties of faults : from observation on the Longitudinal Valley Fault, Taiwan, to dynamic simulations

Faults can slip either aseismically or through episodic seismic ruptures, but we still do not understand the factors which determine the partitioning between these two modes of slip. This challenge can now be addressed thanks to the dense set of geodetic and seismological networks that have been deployed in various areas with active tectonics. The data from such networks, as well as modern remote sensing techniques, indeed allow documenting of the spatial and temporal variability of slip mode and give some insight. This is the approach taken in this study, which is focused on the Longitudinal Valley Fault (LVF) in Eastern Taiwan. This fault is particularly appropriate since the very fast slip rate (about 5 cm/yr) is accommodated by both seismic and aseismic slip. Deformation of anthropogenic features shows that aseismic creep accounts for a significant fraction of fault slip near the surface, but this fault also released energy seismically, since it has produced five M_w>6.8 earthquakes in 1951 and 2003. Moreover, owing to the thrust component of slip, the fault zone is exhumed which allows investigation of deformation mechanisms. In order to put constraint on the factors that control the mode of slip, we apply a multidisciplinary approach that combines modeling of geodetic observations, structural analysis and numerical simulation of the "seismic cycle". Analyzing a dense set of geodetic and seismological data across the Longitudinal Valley, including campaign-mode GPS, continuous GPS (cGPS), leveling, accelerometric, and InSAR data, we document the partitioning between seismic and aseismic slip on the fault. For the time period 1992 to 2011, we found that about 80-90% of slip on the LVF in the 0-26 km seismogenic depth range is actually aseismic. The clay-rich Lichi M\'elange is identified as the key factor promoting creep at shallow depth. Microstructural investigations show that deformation within the fault zone must have resulted from a combination of frictional sliding at grain boundaries, cataclasis and pressure solution creep. Numerical modeling of earthquake sequences have been performed to investigate the possibility of reproducing the results from the kinematic inversion of geodetic and seismological data on the LVF. We first investigate the different modeling strategy that was developed to explore the role and relative importance of different factors on the manner in which slip accumulates on faults. We compare the results of quasi dynamic simulations and fully dynamic ones, and we conclude that ignoring the transient wave-mediated stress transfers would be inappropriate. We therefore carry on fully dynamic simulations and succeed in qualitatively reproducing the wide range of observations for the southern segment of the LVF. We conclude that the spatio-temporal evolution of fault slip on the Longitudinal Valley Fault over 1997-2011 is consistent to first order with prediction from a simple model in which a velocity-weakening patch is embedded in a velocity-strengthening area.

Structural and clumped-isotope constraints on the mechanisms of displacement along low-angle detachments

Despite years of research on low-angle detachments, much about them remains enigmatic. This thesis addresses some of the uncertainty regarding two particular detachments, the Mormon Peak detachment in Nevada and the Heart Mountain detachment in Wyoming and Montana.

Constraints on the geometry and kinematics of emplacement of the Mormon Peak detachment are provided by detailed geologic mapping of the Meadow Valley Mountains, along with an analysis of structural data within the allochthon in the Mormon Mountains. Identifiable structures well suited to constrain the kinematics of the detachment include a newly mapped, Sevier-age monoclinal flexure in the hanging wall of the detachment. This flexure, including the syncline at its base and the anticline at its top, can be readily matched to the base and top of the frontal Sevier thrust ramp, which is exposed in the footwall of the detachment to the east in the Mormon Mountains and Tule Springs Hills. The ~12 km of offset of these structural markers precludes the radial sliding hypothesis for emplacement of the allochthon.

The role of fluids in the slip along faults is a widely investigated topic, but the use of carbonate clumped-isotope thermometry to investigate these fluids is new. Faults rocks from within ~1 m of the Mormon Peak detachment, including veins, breccias, gouges, and host rocks, were analyzed for carbon, oxygen, and clumped-isotope measurements. The data indicate that much of the carbonate breccia and gouge material along the detachment is comminuted host rock, as expected. Measurements in vein material indicate that the fluid system is dominated by meteoric water, whose temperature indicates circulation to substantial depths (c. 4 km) in the upper crust near the fault zone.

Slip along the subhorizontal Heart Mountain detachment is particularly enigmatic, and many different mechanisms for failure have been proposed, predominantly involving catastrophic failure. Textural evidence of multiple slip events is abundant, and include multiple brecciation events and cross-cutting clastic dikes. Footwall deformation is observed in numerous exposures of the detachment. Stylolitic surfaces and alteration textures within and around “banded grains” previously interpreted to be an indicator of high-temperature fluidization along the fault suggest their formation instead via low-temperature dissolution and alteration processes. There is abundant textural evidence of the significant role of fluids along the detachment via pressure solution. The process of pressure solution creep may be responsible for enabling multiple slip events on the low-angle detachment, via a local rotation of the stress field.

Clumped-isotope thermometry of fault rocks associated with the Heart Mountain detachment indicates that despite its location on the flanks of a volcano that was active during slip, the majority of carbonate along the Heart Mountain detachment does not record significant heating above ambient temperatures (c. 40-70°C). Instead, cold meteoric fluids infiltrated the detachment breccia, and carbonate precipitated under ambient temperatures controlled by structural depth. Locally, fault gouge does preserve hot temperatures (>200°C), as is observed in both the Mormon Peak detachment and Heart Mountain detachment areas. Samples with very hot temperatures attributable to frictional shear heating are present but rare. They appear to be best preserved in hanging wall structures related to the detachment, rather than along the main detachment.

Evidence is presented for the prevalence of relatively cold, meteoric fluids along both shallow crustal detachments studied, and for protracted histories of slip along both detachments. Frictional heating is evident from both areas, but is a minor component of the preserved fault rock record. Pressure solution is evident, and might play a role in initiating slip on the Heart Mountain fault, and possibly other low-angle detachments.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Investigation of strong earthquake ground motion

The pattern of energy release during the Imperial Valley, California, earthquake of 1940 is studied by analysing the El Centro strong motion seismograph record and records from the Tinemaha seismograph station, 546 km from the epicenter. The earthquake was a multiple event sequence with at least 4 events recorded at El Centro in the first 25 seconds, followed by 9 events recorded in the next 5 minutes. Clear P, S and surface waves were observed on the strong motion record. Although the main part of the earthquake energy was released during the first 15 seconds, some of the later events were as large as M = 5.8 and thus are important for earthquake engineering studies. The moment calculated using Fourier analysis of surface waves agrees with the moment estimated from field measurements of fault offset after the earthquake. The earthquake engineering significance of the complex pattern of energy release is discussed. It is concluded that a cumulative increase in amplitudes of building vibration resulting from the present sequence of shocks would be significant only for structures with relatively long natural period of vibration. However, progressive weakening effects may also lead to greater damage for multiple event earthquakes.

The model with surface Love waves propagating through a single layer as a surface wave guide is studied. It is expected that the derived properties for this simple model illustrate well several phenomena associated with strong earthquake ground motion. First, it is shown that a surface layer, or several layers, will cause the main part of the high frequency energy, radiated from the nearby earthquake, to be confined to the layer as a wave guide. The existence of the surface layer will thus increase the rate of the energy transfer into the man-made structures on or near the surface of the layer. Secondly, the surface amplitude of the guided SH waves will decrease if the energy of the wave is essentially confined to the layer and if the wave propagates towards an increasing layer thickness. It is also shown that the constructive interference of SH waves will cause the zeroes and the peaks in the Fourier amplitude spectrum of the surface ground motion to be continuously displaced towards the longer periods as the distance from the source of the energy release increases.

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.

Aseismic deformation in subduction megathrusts : central Andes and north-east Japan

We aim to characterize fault slip behavior during all stages of the seismic cycle in subduction megathrust environments with the eventual goal of understanding temporal and spatial variations of fault zone rheology, and to infer possible causal relationships between inter-, co- and post-seismic slip, as well as implications for earthquake and tsunami hazard. In particular we focus on analyzing aseismic deformation occurring during inter-seismic and post-seismic periods of the seismic cycle. We approach the problem using both Bayesian and optimization techniques. The Bayesian approach allows us to completely characterize the model parameter space by searching a posteriori estimates of the range of allowable models, to easily implement any kind of physically plausible a priori information and to perform the inversion without regularization other than that imposed by the parameterization of the model. However, the Bayesian approach computational expensive and not currently viable for quick response scenarios. Therefore, we also pursue improvements in the optimization inference scheme. We present a novel, robust and yet simple regularization technique that allows us to infer robust and somewhat more detailed models of slip on faults. We apply such methodologies, using simple quasi-static elastic models, to perform studies of inter- seismic deformation in the Central Andes subduction zone, and post-seismic deformation induced by the occurrence of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. For the Central Andes, we present estimates of apparent coupling probability of the subduction interface and analyze its relationship to past earthquakes in the region. For Japan, we infer high spatial variability in material properties of the megathrust offshore Tohoku. We discuss the potential for a large earthquake just south of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake where our inferences suggest dominantly aseismic behavior.

Experimental Investigation of Thrust Fault Rupture Mechanics

Thrust fault earthquakes are investigated in the laboratory by generating dynamic shear ruptures along pre-existing frictional faults in rectangular plates. A considerable body of evidence suggests that dip-slip earthquakes exhibit enhanced ground motions in the acute hanging wall wedge as an outcome of broken symmetry between hanging and foot wall plates with respect to the earth surface. To understand the physical behavior of thrust fault earthquakes, particularly ground motions near the earth surface, ruptures are nucleated in analog laboratory experiments and guided up-dip towards the simulated earth surface. The transient slip event and emitted radiation mimic a natural thrust earthquake. High-speed photography and laser velocimeters capture the rupture evolution, outputting a full-field view of photo-elastic fringe contours proportional to maximum shearing stresses as well as continuous ground motion velocity records at discrete points on the specimen. Earth surface-normal measurements validate selective enhancement of hanging wall ground motions for both sub-Rayleigh and super-shear rupture speeds. The earth surface breaks upon rupture tip arrival to the fault trace, generating prominent Rayleigh surface waves. A rupture wave is sensed in the hanging wall but is, however, absent from the foot wall plate: a direct consequence of proximity from fault to seismometer. Signatures in earth surface-normal records attenuate with distance from the fault trace. Super-shear earthquakes feature greater amplitudes of ground shaking profiles, as expected from the increased tectonic pressures required to induce super-shear transition. Paired stations measure fault parallel and fault normal ground motions at various depths, which yield slip and opening rates through direct subtraction of like components. Peak fault slip and opening rates associated with the rupture tip increase with proximity to the fault trace, a result of selective ground motion amplification in the hanging wall. Fault opening rates indicate that the hanging and foot walls detach near the earth surface, a phenomenon promoted by a decrease in magnitude of far-field tectonic loads. Subsequent shutting of the fault sends an opening pulse back down-dip. In case of a sub-Rayleigh earthquake, feedback from the reflected S wave re-ruptures the locked fault at super-shear speeds, providing another mechanism of super-shear transition.

Determination of source finiteness and depth of large earthquakes

In this thesis, a method to retrieve the source finiteness, depth of faulting, and the mechanisms of large earthquakes from long-period surface waves is developed and applied to several recent large events.

In Chapter 1, source finiteness parameters of eleven large earthquakes were determined from long-period Rayleigh waves recorded at IDA and GDSN stations. The basic data set is the seismic spectra of periods from 150 to 300 sec. Two simple models of source finiteness are studied. The first model is a point source with finite duration. In the determination of the duration or source-process times, we used Furumoto's phase method and a linear inversion method, in which we simultaneously inverted the spectra and determined the source-process time that minimizes the error in the inversion. These two methods yielded consistent results. The second model is the finite fault model. Source finiteness of large shallow earthquakes with rupture on a fault plane with a large aspect ratio was modeled with the source-finiteness function introduced by Ben-Menahem. The spectra were inverted to find the extent and direction of the rupture of the earthquake that minimize the error in the inversion. This method is applied to the 1977 Sumbawa, Indonesia, 1979 Colombia-Ecuador, 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, 1985 Valparaiso, Chile, and 1985 Michoacan, Mexico earthquakes. The method yielded results consistent with the rupture extent inferred from the aftershock area of these earthquakes.

In Chapter 2, the depths and source mechanisms of nine large shallow earthquakes were determined. We inverted the data set of complex source spectra for a moment tensor (linear) or a double couple (nonlinear). By solving a least-squares problem, we obtained the centroid depth or the extent of the distributed source for each earthquake. The depths and source mechanisms of large shallow earthquakes determined from long-period Rayleigh waves depend on the models of source finiteness, wave propagation, and the excitation. We tested various models of the source finiteness, Q, the group velocity, and the excitation in the determination of earthquake depths.

The depth estimates obtained using the Q model of Dziewonski and Steim (1982) and the excitation functions computed for the average ocean model of Regan and Anderson (1984) are considered most reasonable. Dziewonski and Steim's Q model represents a good global average of Q determined over a period range of the Rayleigh waves used in this study. Since most of the earthquakes studied here occurred in subduction zones Regan and Anderson's average ocean model is considered most appropriate.

Our depth estimates are in general consistent with the Harvard CMT solutions. The centroid depths and their 90 % confidence intervals (numbers in the parentheses) determined by the Student's t test are: Colombia-Ecuador earthquake (12 December 1979), d = 11 km, (9, 24) km; Santa Cruz Is. earthquake (17 July 1980), d = 36 km, (18, 46) km; Samoa earthquake (1 September 1981), d = 15 km, (9, 26) km; Playa Azul, Mexico earthquake (25 October 1981), d = 41 km, (28, 49) km; El Salvador earthquake (19 June 1982), d = 49 km, (41, 55) km; New Ireland earthquake (18 March 1983), d = 75 km, (72, 79) km; Chagos Bank earthquake (30 November 1983), d = 31 km, (16, 41) km; Valparaiso, Chile earthquake (3 March 1985), d = 44 km, (15, 54) km; Michoacan, Mexico earthquake (19 September 1985), d = 24 km, (12, 34) km.

In Chapter 3, the vertical extent of faulting of the 1983 Akita-Oki, and 1977 Sumbawa, Indonesia earthquakes are determined from fundamental and overtone Rayleigh waves. Using fundamental Rayleigh waves, the depths are determined from the moment tensor inversion and fault inversion. The observed overtone Rayleigh waves are compared to the synthetic overtone seismograms to estimate the depth of faulting of these earthquakes. The depths obtained from overtone Rayleigh waves are consistent with the depths determined from fundamental Rayleigh waves for the two earthquakes. Appendix B gives the observed seismograms of fundamental and overtone Rayleigh waves for eleven large earthquakes.

Lattice quantum codes and exotic topological phases of matter

This thesis addresses whether it is possible to build a robust memory device for quantum information. Many schemes for fault-tolerant quantum information processing have been developed so far, one of which, called topological quantum computation, makes use of degrees of freedom that are inherently insensitive to local errors. However, this scheme is not so reliable against thermal errors. Other fault-tolerant schemes achieve better reliability through active error correction, but incur a substantial overhead cost. Thus, it is of practical importance and theoretical interest to design and assess fault-tolerant schemes that work well at finite temperature without active error correction.

In this thesis, a three-dimensional gapped lattice spin model is found which demonstrates for the first time that a reliable quantum memory at finite temperature is possible, at least to some extent. When quantum information is encoded into a highly entangled ground state of this model and subjected to thermal errors, the errors remain easily correctable for a long time without any active intervention, because a macroscopic energy barrier keeps the errors well localized. As a result, stored quantum information can be retrieved faithfully for a memory time which grows exponentially with the square of the inverse temperature. In contrast, for previously known types of topological quantum storage in three or fewer spatial dimensions the memory time scales exponentially with the inverse temperature, rather than its square.

This spin model exhibits a previously unexpected topological quantum order, in which ground states are locally indistinguishable, pointlike excitations are immobile, and the immobility is not affected by small perturbations of the Hamiltonian. The degeneracy of the ground state, though also insensitive to perturbations, is a complicated number-theoretic function of the system size, and the system bifurcates into multiple noninteracting copies of itself under real-space renormalization group transformations. The degeneracy, the excitations, and the renormalization group flow can be analyzed using a framework that exploits the spin model's symmetry and some associated free resolutions of modules over polynomial algebras.

Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Earthquake geology of Myanmar

This thesis describes the active structures of Myanmar and its surrounding regions, and the earthquake geology of the major active structures. Such investigation is needed urgently for this rapidly developing country that has suffered from destructive earthquakes in its long history. To archive a better understanding of the regional active tectonics and the seismic potential in the future, we utilized a global digital elevation model and optical satellite imagery to describe geomorphologic evidence for the principal neotectonic features of the western half of the Southeast Asia mainland. Our investigation shows three distinct active structural systems that accommodate the oblique convergence between the Indian plate and Southeast Asia and the extrusion of Asian territory around the eastern syntaxis of the Himalayan mountain range. Each of these active deformation belts can be further separated into several neotectonic domains, in which structures show distinctive active behaviors from one to another.

In order to better understand the behaviors of active structures, we focused on the active characteristics of the right-lateral Sagaing fault and the oblique subducting northern Sunda megathrust in the second part of this thesis. The detailed geomorphic investigations along these two major plate-interface faults revealed the recent slip behavior of these structures, and plausible recurrence intervals of major seismic events. We also documented the ground deformation of the 2011 Tarlay earthquake in remote eastern Myanmar from remote sensing datasets and post-earthquake field investigations. The field observation and the remote sensing measurements of surface ruptures of the Tarlay earthquake are the first study of this kind in the Myanmar region.

I. Geology of the Southwest quarter of the Elsinore Quadrangle. II. Geochemical properties of the waters of the Elsinore Quadrangle [= Geology of the Lake Elsinore Quadrangle, California. Mineral deposits of Lake Elsinore Quadrangle, California]

The Lake Elsinore quadrangle covers about 250 square miles and includes parts of the southwest margin of the Perris Block, the Elsinore trough, the southeastern end of the Santa Ana Mountains, and the Elsinore Mountains.

The oldest rocks consist of an assemblage of metamorphics of igneous effusive and sedimentary origin, probably, for the most part, of Triassic age. They are intruded by diorite and various hypabyssal rocks, then in turn by granitic rocks, which occupy over 40 percent of the area. Following this last igneous activity of probable Lower Cretaceous age, an extended period of sedimentation started with the deposition of the marine Upper Cretaceous Chico formation and continued during the Paloecene under alternating marine and continental conditions on the margins of the blocks. A marine regression towards the north, during the Neocene, accounts for the younger Tertiary strata in the region under consideration.

Outpouring of basalts to the southeast indicates that igneous activity was resumed toward the close of the Tertiary. The fault zone, which characterizes the Elsinor trough, marks one of the major tectonic lines of southem California. It separates the upthrown and tilted block of the Santa Ana Mountains to the south from the Perris Block to the north.

Most of the faults are normal in type and nearly parallel to the general trend of the trough, or intersect each other at an acute angle. Vertical displacements generally exceed the horizontal ones and several periods of activity are recognized.

Tilting of Tertiary and older Quaternary sediments in the trough have produced broad synclinal structures which have been modified by subsequent faulting.

Five old surfaces of erosion are exposed on the highlands.

The mineral resources of the region are mainly high-grade clay deposits and mineral waters.

Seismic reflection experiments imaging the physical nature of crustal structures in southern California

Seismic reflection methods have been extensively used to probe the Earth's crust and suggest the nature of its formative processes. The analysis of multi-offset seismic reflection data extends the technique from a reconnaissance method to a powerful scientific tool that can be applied to test specific hypotheses. The treatment of reflections at multiple offsets becomes tractable if the assumptions of high-frequency rays are valid for the problem being considered. Their validity can be tested by applying the methods of analysis to full wave synthetics.

Three studies illustrate the application of these principles to investigations of the nature of the crust in southern California. A survey shot by the COCORP consortium in 1977 across the San Andreas fault near Parkfield revealed events in the record sections whose arrival time decreased with offset. The reflectors generating these events are imaged using a multi-offset three-dimensional Kirchhoff migration. Migrations of full wave acoustic synthetics having the same limitations in geometric coverage as the field survey demonstrate the utility of this back projection process for imaging. The migrated depth sections show the locations of the major physical boundaries of the San Andreas fault zone. The zone is bounded on the southwest by a near-vertical fault juxtaposing a Tertiary sedimentary section against uplifted crystalline rocks of the fault zone block. On the northeast, the fault zone is bounded by a fault dipping into the San Andreas, which includes slices of serpentinized ultramafics, intersecting it at 3 km depth. These interpretations can be made despite complications introduced by lateral heterogeneities.

In 1985 the Calcrust consortium designed a survey in the eastern Mojave desert to image structures in both the shallow and the deep crust. Preliminary field experiments showed that the major geophysical acquisition problem to be solved was the poor penetration of seismic energy through a low-velocity surface layer. Its effects could be mitigated through special acquisition and processing techniques. Data obtained from industry showed that quality data could be obtained from areas having a deeper, older sedimentary cover, causing a re-definition of the geologic objectives. Long offset stationary arrays were designed to provide reversed, wider angle coverage of the deep crust over parts of the survey. The preliminary field tests and constant monitoring of data quality and parameter adjustment allowed 108 km of excellent crustal data to be obtained.

This dataset, along with two others from the central and western Mojave, was used to constrain rock properties and the physical condition of the crust. The multi-offset analysis proceeded in two steps. First, an increase in reflection peak frequency with offset is indicative of a thinly layered reflector. The thickness and velocity contrast of the layering can be calculated from the spectral dispersion, to discriminate between structures resulting from broad scale or local effects. Second, the amplitude effects at different offsets of P-P scattering from weak elastic heterogeneities indicate whether the signs of the changes in density, rigidity, and Lame's parameter at the reflector agree or are opposed. The effects of reflection generation and propagation in a heterogeneous, anisotropic crust were contained by the design of the experiment and the simplicity of the observed amplitude and frequency trends. Multi-offset spectra and amplitude trend stacks of the three Mojave Desert datasets suggest that the most reflective structures in the middle crust are strong Poisson's ratio (σ) contrasts. Porous zones or the juxtaposition of units of mutually distant origin are indicated. Heterogeneities in σ increase towards the top of a basal crustal zone at ~22 km depth. The transition to the basal zone and to the mantle include increases in σ. The Moho itself includes ~400 m layering having a velocity higher than that of the uppermost mantle. The Moho maintains the same configuration across the Mojave despite 5 km of crustal thinning near the Colorado River. This indicates that Miocene extension there either thinned just the basal zone, or that the basal zone developed regionally after the extensional event.

Geological evolution of two crustal scale shear zones. Part I. The Rand thrust complex, northwestern Mojave Desert, California. Part II. The Magdalena metamorphic core complex, north central Sonora, Mexico

The geology and structure of two crustal scale shear zones were studied to understand the partitioning of strain within intracontinental orogenic belts. Movement histories and regional tectonic implications are deduced from observational data. The two widely separated study areas bear the imprint of intense Late Mesozoic through Middle Cenozoic tectonic activity. A regional transition from Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary plutonism, metamorphism, and shortening strain to Middle Tertiary extension and magmatism is preserved in each area, with contrasting environments and mechanisms. Compressional phases of this tectonic history are better displayed in the Rand Mountains, whereas younger extensional structures dominate rock fabrics in the Magdalena area.

In the northwestern Mojave desert, the Rand Thrust Complex reveals a stack of four distinctive tectonic plates offset along the Garlock Fault. The lowermost plate, Rand Schist, is composed of greenschist facies metagraywacke, metachert, and metabasalt. Rand Schist is structurally overlain by Johannesburg Gneiss (= garnet-amphibolite grade orthogneisses, marbles and quartzites), which in turn is overlain by a Late Cretaceous hornblende-biotite granodiorite. Biotite granite forms the fourth and highest plate. Initial assembly of the tectonic stack involved a Late Cretaceous? south or southwest vergent overthrusting event in which Johannesburg Gneiss was imbricated and attenuated between Rand Schist and hornblende-biotite granodiorite. Thrusting postdated metamorphism and deformation of the lower two plates in separate environments. A post-kinematic stock, the Late Cretaceous Randsburg Granodiorite, intrudes deep levels of the complex and contains xenoliths of both Rand Schist and mylonitized Johannesburg? gneiss. Minimum shortening implied by the map patterns is 20 kilometers.

Some low angle faults of the Rand Thrust Complex formed or were reactivated between Late Cretaceous and Early Miocene time. South-southwest directed mylonites derived from Johannesburg Gneiss are commonly overprinted by less penetrative north-northeast vergent structures. Available kinematic information at shallower structural levels indicates that late disturbance(s) culminated in northward transport of the uppermost plate. Persistence of brittle fabrics along certain structural horizons suggests a possible association of late movement(s) with regionally known detachment faults. The four plates were juxtaposed and significant intraplate movements had ceased prior to Early Miocene emplacement of rhyolite porphyry dikes.

In the Magdalena region of north central Sonora, components of a pre-Middle Cretaceous stratigraphy are used as strain markers in tracking the evolution of a long lived orogenic belt. Important elements of the tectonic history include: (1) Compression during the Late Cretaceous and Early Tertiary, accompanied by plutonism, metamorphism, and ductile strain at depth, and thrust driven? syntectonic sedimentation at the surface. (2) Middle Tertiary transition to crustal extension, initially recorded by intrusion of leucogranites, inflation of the previously shortened middle and upper crustal section, and surface volcanism. (3) Gravity induced development of a normal sense ductile shear zone at mid crustal levels, with eventual detachment and southwestward displacement of the upper crustal stratigraphy by Early Miocene time.

Elucidation of the metamorphic core complex evolution just described was facilitated by fortuitous preservation of a unique assemblage of rocks and structures. The "type" stratigraphy utilized for regional correlation and strain analysis includes a Jurassic volcanic arc assemblage overlain by an Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous quartz pebble conglomerate, in turn overlain by marine strata with fossiliferous Aptian-Albian limestones. The Jurassic strata, comprised of (a) rhyolite porphyries interstratified with quartz arenites, (b) rhyolite cobble conglomerate, and (c) intrusive granite porphyries, are known to rest on Precambrian basement north and east of the study area. The quartz pebble conglomerate is correlated with the Glance Conglomerate of southeastern Arizona and northeastern Sonora. The marine sequence represents part of an isolated arm? of the Bisbee Basin.

Crosscutting structural relationships between the pre-Middle Cretaceous supracrustal section, younger plutons, and deformational fabrics allow the tectonic sequence to be determined. Earliest phases of a Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary orogeny are marked by emplacement of the 78 ± 3 Ma Guacomea Granodiorite (U/Pb zircon, Anderson et al., 1980) as a sill into deep levels of the layered Jurassic series. Subsequent regional metamorphism and ductile strain is recorded by a penetrative schistosity and lineation, and east-west trending folds. These fabrics are intruded by post-kinematic Early Tertiary? two mica granites. At shallower crustal levels, the orogeny is represented by north directed thrust faulting, formation of a large intermontane basin, and development of a pronounced unconformity. A second important phase of ductile strain followed Middle Tertiary? emplacement of leucogranites as sills and northwest trending dikes into intermediate levels of the deformed section (surficial volcanism was also active during this transitional period to regional extension). Gravitational instabilities resulting from crustal swelling via intrusion and thermal expansion led to development of a ductile shear zone within the stratigraphic horizon occupied by a laterally extensive leucogranite sill. With continued extension, upper crustal brittle normal faults (detachment faults) enhanced the uplift and tectonic denudation of this mylonite zone, ultimately resulting in southwestward displacement of the upper crustal stratigraphy.

Strains associated with the two ductile deformation events have been successfully partitioned through a multifaceted analysis. R_f/Ø measurements on various markers from the "type" stratigraphy allow a gradient representing cumulative strain since Middle Cretaceous time to be determined. From this gradient, noncoaxial strains accrued since emplacement of the leucogranites may be removed. Irrotational components of the postleucogranite strain are measured from quartz grain shapes in deformed granites; rotational components (shear strains) are determined from S-C fabrics and from restoration of rotated dike and vein networks. Structural observations and strain data are compatable with a deformation path of: (1) coaxial strain (pure shear?), followed by (2) injection of leucogranites as dikes (perpendicular to the minimum principle stress) and sills (parallel to the minimum principle stress), then (3) southwest directed simple shear. Modeling the late strain gradient as a simple shear zone permits a minimum displacement of 10 kilometers on the Magdalena mylonite zone/detachment fault system. Removal of the Middle Tertiary noncoaxial strains yields a residual (or pre-existing) strain gradient representative of the Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary deformation. Several partially destrained cross sections, restored to the time of leucogranite emplacement, illustrate the idea that the upper plate of the core complex bas been detached from a region of significant topographic relief. 50% to 100% bulk extension across a 50 kilometer wide corridor is demonstrated.

Late Cenozoic tectonics of the Magdalena region are dominated by Basin and Range style faulting. Northeast and north-northwest trending high angle normal faults have interacted to extend the crust in an east-west direction. Net extension for this period is minor (10% to 15%) in comparison to the Middle Tertiary detachment related extensional episode.