Equivalent differential equations for nonlinear dynamical systems

A technique for obtaining approximate periodic solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations is investigated. The approach is based on defining an equivalent differential equation whose exact periodic solution is known. Emphasis is placed on the mathematical justification of the approach. The relationship between the differential equation error and the solution error is investigated, and, under certain conditions, bounds are obtained on the latter. The technique employed is to consider the equation governing the exact solution error as a two point boundary value problem. Among other things, the analysis indicates that if an exact periodic solution to the original system exists, it is always possible to bound the error by selecting an appropriate equivalent system.

Three equivalence criteria for minimizing the differential equation error are compared, namely, minimum mean square error, minimum mean absolute value error, and minimum maximum absolute value error. The problem is analyzed by way of example, and it is concluded that, on the average, the minimum mean square error is the most appropriate criterion to use.

A comparison is made between the use of linear and cubic auxiliary systems for obtaining approximate solutions. In the examples considered, the cubic system provides noticeable improvement over the linear system in describing periodic response.

A comparison of the present approach to some of the more classical techniques is included. It is shown that certain of the standard approaches where a solution form is assumed can yield erroneous qualitative results.

Primary cosmic-ray positrons and negatrons in 1968 at energies between 11 and 204 MeV

The cosmic-ray positron and negatron spectra between 11 and 204 MeV have been measured in a series of 3 high-altitude balloon flights launched from Fort Churchill, Manitoba, on July 16, July 21, and July 29, 1968. The detector system consisted of a magnetic spectrometer utilizing a 1000-gauss permanent magnet, scintillation counters, and a lucite Čerenkov counter.

Launches were timed so that the ascent through the 100 g/cm² level of residual atmosphere occurred after the evening geomagnetic cutoff transition. Data gathered during ascent are used to correct for the contribution of atmospheric secondary electrons to the flux measured at float altitude. All flights floated near 2.4 g/cm².

A pronounced morning intensity increase was observed in each flight. We present daytime positron and negatron data which support the interpretation of the diurnal flux variation as a change in the local geomagnetic cutoff. A large diurnal variation was observed in the count rate of positrons and negatrons with magnetic rigidities less than 11 MV and is evidence that the nighttime cutoff was well below this value.

Using nighttime data we derive extraterrestrial positron and negatron spectra. The positron-to-total-electron ratio which we measure indicates that the interstellar secondary, or collision, source contributes ≾50 percent of the electron flux within this energy interval. By comparing our measured positron spectrum with the positron spectrum calculated for the collision source we derive the absolute solar modulation for positrons in 1968. Assuming negligible energy loss during modulation, we derive the total interstellar electron spectrum as well as the spectrum of directly accelerated, or primary, electrons. We examine the effect of adiabatic deceleration and find that many of the conclusions regarding the interstellar electron spectrum are not significantly altered for an assumed energy loss of up to 50 percent of the original energy.

Electromagnetic decay of the 1.7- and 2.43-MeV levels in ^9Be

The 1.7- and 2.43-MeV levels in ⁹Be were populated with the reaction ¹¹B(d, α)⁹Be* by bombarding thin boron on carbon foils with 1.7-MeV deuterons. The alpha particles were analyzed in energy with a surface-barrier counter set at the unique kinematically determined angle and the recoiling ⁹Be nuclei at 90^o were analyzed in rigidity with a magnetic spectrometer, in energy by a surface-barrier counter at the spectrometer focus, and in velocity by the time delay between an alpha and a ⁹Be count. When a pulse from the spectrometer counter was in the appropriate delayed coincidence with a pulse from the alpha counter, the two pulses were recorded in a two-dimensional pulse height analyzer. Most of the ⁹Be* decay by particle breakup. Only those that gamma decay are detected by the spectrometer counter. Thus the experiment provides a direct measurement of Γ_rad/Γ. Analysis of 384 observed events gives Γ_rad/Γ = (1.16 ± 0.14) X 10^-4 for the 2.43-MeV level. Combining this ratio with the value of Γ_rad = 0.122 ± 0.015 eV found from inelastic electron scattering gives Γ = (1.05 ± 0.18) keV. For the 1.7-MeV level, an upper limit, Γ_rad/Γ ≤ 2.4 = 10^-5, was determined.

π+ photoproduction at angles from 6° to 90° C.M. and energies from 589 to 1269 MeV

The differential cross section for the reaction γp → π⁺n was measured at 32 laboratory photon energies between 589 and 1269 MeV at the Caltech Synchrotron. At each energy, data have been obtained at typically fifteen π⁺ c.m. angles between 6° and 90°. A magnetic spectrometer was used to detect the π⁺ photo-produced in a liquid hydrogen target. Two Cherenkov counters were used to reject the background of positrons and protons. The data clearly show the presence of a pole in the production amplitude due to the one pion exchange. Moravcsik fits to the 32 angular distributions, including data from another experiment, are presented. The extrapolation of these fits to the pole gives a value for the pion-nucleon coupling constant of 14.5 which is consistent with the accepted value. The second and third pion-nucleon resonances are evident as peaks in the total cross section and as changes in the shape of the angular distributions. At the third resonance there is evidence for both a D5/2 and an F5/2 amplitude. The absence of large variations in the 0° and 180° cross sections implies that the second and third resonances are mostly produced from an initial state with helicity ± 3/2.

Invariants, Lie-Bäcklund operators and Bäcklund transformations

This thesis is mainly concerned with the application of groups of transformations to differential equations and in particular with the connection between the group structure of a given equation and the existence of exact solutions and conservation laws. In this respect the Lie-Bäcklund groups of tangent transformations, particular cases of which are the Lie tangent and the Lie point groups, are extensively used.

In Chapter I we first review the classical results of Lie, Bäcklund and Bianchi as well as the more recent ones due mainly to Ovsjannikov. We then concentrate on the Lie-Bäcklund groups (or more precisely on the corresponding Lie-Bäcklund operators), as introduced by Ibragimov and Anderson, and prove some lemmas about them which are useful for the following chapters. Finally we introduce the concept of a conditionally admissible operator (as opposed to an admissible one) and show how this can be used to generate exact solutions.

In Chapter II we establish the group nature of all separable solutions and conserved quantities in classical mechanics by analyzing the group structure of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. It is shown that consideration of only Lie point groups is insufficient. For this purpose a special type of Lie-Bäcklund groups, those equivalent to Lie tangent groups, is used. It is also shown how these generalized groups induce Lie point groups on Hamilton's equations. The generalization of the above results to any first order equation, where the dependent variable does not appear explicitly, is obvious. In the second part of this chapter we investigate admissible operators (or equivalently constants of motion) of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation with polynornial dependence on the momenta. The form of the most general constant of motion linear, quadratic and cubic in the momenta is explicitly found. Emphasis is given to the quadratic case, where the particular case of a fixed (say zero) energy state is also considered; it is shown that in the latter case additional symmetries may appear. Finally, some potentials of physical interest admitting higher symmetries are considered. These include potentials due to two centers and limiting cases thereof. The most general two-center potential admitting a quadratic constant of motion is obtained, as well as the corresponding invariant. Also some new cubic invariants are found.

In Chapter III we first establish the group nature of all separable solutions of any linear, homogeneous equation. We then concentrate on the Schrodinger equation and look for an algorithm which generates a quantum invariant from a classical one. The problem of an isomorphism between functions in classical observables and quantum observables is studied concretely and constructively. For functions at most quadratic in the momenta an isomorphism is possible which agrees with Weyl' s transform and which takes invariants into invariants. It is not possible to extend the isomorphism indefinitely. The requirement that an invariant goes into an invariant may necessitate variants of Weyl' s transform. This is illustrated for the case of cubic invariants. Finally, the case of a specific value of energy is considered; in this case Weyl's transform does not yield an isomorphism even for the quadratic case. However, for this case a correspondence mapping a classical invariant to a quantum orie is explicitly found.

Chapters IV and V are concerned with the general group structure of evolution equations. In Chapter IV we establish a one to one correspondence between admissible Lie-Bäcklund operators of evolution equations (derivable from a variational principle) and conservation laws of these equations. This correspondence takes the form of a simple algorithm.

In Chapter V we first establish the group nature of all Bäcklund transformations (BT) by proving that any solution generated by a BT is invariant under the action of some conditionally admissible operator. We then use an algorithm based on invariance criteria to rederive many known BT and to derive some new ones. Finally, we propose a generalization of BT which, among other advantages, clarifies the connection between the wave-train solution and a BT in the sense that, a BT may be thought of as a variation of parameters of some. special case of the wave-train solution (usually the solitary wave one). Some open problems are indicated.

Most of the material of Chapters II and III is contained in [I], [II], [III] and [IV] and the first part of Chapter V in [V].

Boundary value problems for stochastic differential equations

A theory of two-point boundary value problems analogous to the theory of initial value problems for stochastic ordinary differential equations whose solutions form Markov processes is developed. The theory of initial value problems consists of three main parts: the proof that the solution process is markovian and diffusive; the construction of the Kolmogorov or Fokker-Planck equation of the process; and the proof that the transistion probability density of the process is a unique solution of the Fokker-Planck equation.

It is assumed here that the stochastic differential equation under consideration has, as an initial value problem, a diffusive markovian solution process. When a given boundary value problem for this stochastic equation almost surely has unique solutions, we show that the solution process of the boundary value problem is also a diffusive Markov process. Since a boundary value problem, unlike an initial value problem, has no preferred direction for the parameter set, we find that there are two Fokker-Planck equations, one for each direction. It is shown that the density of the solution process of the boundary value problem is the unique simultaneous solution of this pair of Fokker-Planck equations.

This theory is then applied to the problem of a vibrating string with stochastic density.

Bifurcation theory of nonlinear boundary value problems

The theory of bifurcation of solutions to two-point boundary value problems is developed for a system of nonlinear first order ordinary differential equations in which the bifurcation parameter is allowed to appear nonlinearly. An iteration method is used to establish necessary and sufficient conditions for bifurcation and to construct a unique bifurcated branch in a neighborhood of a bifurcation point which is a simple eigenvalue of the linearized problem. The problem of bifurcation at a degenerate eigenvalue of the linearized problem is reduced to that of solving a system of algebraic equations. Cases with no bifurcation and with multiple bifurcation at a degenerate eigenvalue are considered.

The iteration method employed is shown to generate approximate solutions which contain those obtained by formal perturbation theory. Thus the formal perturbation solutions are rigorously justified. A theory of continuation of a solution branch out of the neighborhood of its bifurcation point is presented. Several generalizations and extensions of the theory to other types of problems, such as systems of partial differential equations, are described.

The theory is applied to the problem of the axisymmetric buckling of thin spherical shells. Results are obtained which confirm recent numerical computations.

A singularly perturbed linear two-point boundary-value problem

We consider the following singularly perturbed linear two-point boundary-value problem:

Ly(x) ≡ Ω(ε)D_xy(x) - A(x,ε)y(x) = f(x,ε) 0≤x≤1 (1a)

By ≡ L(ε)y(0) + R(ε)y(1) = g(ε) ε → 0^+ (1b)

Here Ω(ε) is a diagonal matrix whose first m diagonal elements are 1 and last m elements are ε. Aside from reasonable continuity conditions placed on A, L, R, f, g, we assume the lower right mxm principle submatrix of A has no eigenvalues whose real part is zero. Under these assumptions a constructive technique is used to derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique solution of (1). These sufficient conditions are used to define when (1) is a regular problem. It is then shown that as ε → 0^+ the solution of a regular problem exists and converges on every closed subinterval of (0,1) to a solution of the reduced problem. The reduced problem consists of the differential equation obtained by formally setting ε equal to zero in (1a) and initial conditions obtained from the boundary conditions (1b). Several examples of regular problems are also considered.

A similar technique is used to derive the properties of the solution of a particular difference scheme used to approximate (1). Under restrictions on the boundary conditions (1b) it is shown that for the stepsize much larger than ε the solution of the difference scheme, when applied to a regular problem, accurately represents the solution of the reduced problem.

Furthermore, the existence of a similarity transformation which block diagonalizes a matrix is presented as well as exponential bounds on certain fundamental solution matrices associated with the problem (1).

Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

Transceiver designs and analysis for LTI, LTV and broadcast channels - new matrix decompositions and majorization theory

Signal processing techniques play important roles in the design of digital communication systems. These include information manipulation, transmitter signal processing, channel estimation, channel equalization and receiver signal processing. By interacting with communication theory and system implementing technologies, signal processing specialists develop efficient schemes for various communication problems by wisely exploiting various mathematical tools such as analysis, probability theory, matrix theory, optimization theory, and many others. In recent years, researchers realized that multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channel models are applicable to a wide range of different physical communications channels. Using the elegant matrix-vector notations, many MIMO transceiver (including the precoder and equalizer) design problems can be solved by matrix and optimization theory. Furthermore, the researchers showed that the majorization theory and matrix decompositions, such as singular value decomposition (SVD), geometric mean decomposition (GMD) and generalized triangular decomposition (GTD), provide unified frameworks for solving many of the point-to-point MIMO transceiver design problems.

In this thesis, we consider the transceiver design problems for linear time invariant (LTI) flat MIMO channels, linear time-varying narrowband MIMO channels, flat MIMO broadcast channels, and doubly selective scalar channels. Additionally, the channel estimation problem is also considered. The main contributions of this dissertation are the development of new matrix decompositions, and the uses of the matrix decompositions and majorization theory toward the practical transmit-receive scheme designs for transceiver optimization problems. Elegant solutions are obtained, novel transceiver structures are developed, ingenious algorithms are proposed, and performance analyses are derived.

The first part of the thesis focuses on transceiver design with LTI flat MIMO channels. We propose a novel matrix decomposition which decomposes a complex matrix as a product of several sets of semi-unitary matrices and upper triangular matrices in an iterative manner. The complexity of the new decomposition, generalized geometric mean decomposition (GGMD), is always less than or equal to that of geometric mean decomposition (GMD). The optimal GGMD parameters which yield the minimal complexity are derived. Based on the channel state information (CSI) at both the transmitter (CSIT) and receiver (CSIR), GGMD is used to design a butterfly structured decision feedback equalizer (DFE) MIMO transceiver which achieves the minimum average mean square error (MSE) under the total transmit power constraint. A novel iterative receiving detection algorithm for the specific receiver is also proposed. For the application to cyclic prefix (CP) systems in which the SVD of the equivalent channel matrix can be easily computed, the proposed GGMD transceiver has K/log_2(K) times complexity advantage over the GMD transceiver, where K is the number of data symbols per data block and is a power of 2. The performance analysis shows that the GGMD DFE transceiver can convert a MIMO channel into a set of parallel subchannels with the same bias and signal to interference plus noise ratios (SINRs). Hence, the average bit rate error (BER) is automatically minimized without the need for bit allocation. Moreover, the proposed transceiver can achieve the channel capacity simply by applying independent scalar Gaussian codes of the same rate at subchannels.

In the second part of the thesis, we focus on MIMO transceiver design for slowly time-varying MIMO channels with zero-forcing or MMSE criterion. Even though the GGMD/GMD DFE transceivers work for slowly time-varying MIMO channels by exploiting the instantaneous CSI at both ends, their performance is by no means optimal since the temporal diversity of the time-varying channels is not exploited. Based on the GTD, we develop space-time GTD (ST-GTD) for the decomposition of linear time-varying flat MIMO channels. Under the assumption that CSIT, CSIR and channel prediction are available, by using the proposed ST-GTD, we develop space-time geometric mean decomposition (ST-GMD) DFE transceivers under the zero-forcing or MMSE criterion. Under perfect channel prediction, the new system minimizes both the average MSE at the detector in each space-time (ST) block (which consists of several coherence blocks), and the average per ST-block BER in the moderate high SNR region. Moreover, the ST-GMD DFE transceiver designed under an MMSE criterion maximizes Gaussian mutual information over the equivalent channel seen by each ST-block. In general, the newly proposed transceivers perform better than the GGMD-based systems since the super-imposed temporal precoder is able to exploit the temporal diversity of time-varying channels. For practical applications, a novel ST-GTD based system which does not require channel prediction but shares the same asymptotic BER performance with the ST-GMD DFE transceiver is also proposed.

The third part of the thesis considers two quality of service (QoS) transceiver design problems for flat MIMO broadcast channels. The first one is the power minimization problem (min-power) with a total bitrate constraint and per-stream BER constraints. The second problem is the rate maximization problem (max-rate) with a total transmit power constraint and per-stream BER constraints. Exploiting a particular class of joint triangularization (JT), we are able to jointly optimize the bit allocation and the broadcast DFE transceiver for the min-power and max-rate problems. The resulting optimal designs are called the minimum power JT broadcast DFE transceiver (MPJT) and maximum rate JT broadcast DFE transceiver (MRJT), respectively. In addition to the optimal designs, two suboptimal designs based on QR decomposition are proposed. They are realizable for arbitrary number of users.

Finally, we investigate the design of a discrete Fourier transform (DFT) modulated filterbank transceiver (DFT-FBT) with LTV scalar channels. For both cases with known LTV channels and unknown wide sense stationary uncorrelated scattering (WSSUS) statistical channels, we show how to optimize the transmitting and receiving prototypes of a DFT-FBT such that the SINR at the receiver is maximized. Also, a novel pilot-aided subspace channel estimation algorithm is proposed for the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems with quasi-stationary multi-path Rayleigh fading channels. Using the concept of a difference co-array, the new technique can construct M^2 co-pilots from M physical pilot tones with alternating pilot placement. Subspace methods, such as MUSIC and ESPRIT, can be used to estimate the multipath delays and the number of identifiable paths is up to O(M^2), theoretically. With the delay information, a MMSE estimator for frequency response is derived. It is shown through simulations that the proposed method outperforms the conventional subspace channel estimator when the number of multipaths is greater than or equal to the number of physical pilots minus one.

Characterizing distribution rules for cost sharing games

In noncooperative cost sharing games, individually strategic agents choose resources based on how the welfare (cost or revenue) generated at each resource (which depends on the set of agents that choose the resource) is distributed. The focus is on finding distribution rules that lead to stable allocations, which is formalized by the concept of Nash equilibrium, e.g., Shapley value (budget-balanced) and marginal contribution (not budget-balanced) rules.

Recent work that seeks to characterize the space of all such rules shows that the only budget-balanced distribution rules that guarantee equilibrium existence in all welfare sharing games are generalized weighted Shapley values (GWSVs), by exhibiting a specific 'worst-case' welfare function which requires that GWSV rules be used. Our work provides an exact characterization of the space of distribution rules (not necessarily budget-balanced) for any specific local welfare functions remains, for a general class of scalable and separable games with well-known applications, e.g., facility location, routing, network formation, and coverage games.

We show that all games conditioned on any fixed local welfare functions possess an equilibrium if and only if the distribution rules are equivalent to GWSV rules on some 'ground' welfare functions. Therefore, it is neither the existence of some worst-case welfare function, nor the restriction of budget-balance, which limits the design to GWSVs. Also, in order to guarantee equilibrium existence, it is necessary to work within the class of potential games, since GWSVs result in (weighted) potential games.

We also provide an alternative characterization—all games conditioned on any fixed local welfare functions possess an equilibrium if and only if the distribution rules are equivalent to generalized weighted marginal contribution (GWMC) rules on some 'ground' welfare functions. This result is due to a deeper fundamental connection between Shapley values and marginal contributions that our proofs expose—they are equivalent given a transformation connecting their ground welfare functions. (This connection leads to novel closed-form expressions for the GWSV potential function.) Since GWMCs are more tractable than GWSVs, a designer can tradeoff budget-balance with computational tractability in deciding which rule to implement.

Optimal uncertainty quantification via convex optimization and relaxation

Many engineering applications face the problem of bounding the expected value of a quantity of interest (performance, risk, cost, etc.) that depends on stochastic uncertainties whose probability distribution is not known exactly. Optimal uncertainty quantification (OUQ) is a framework that aims at obtaining the best bound in these situations by explicitly incorporating available information about the distribution. Unfortunately, this often leads to non-convex optimization problems that are numerically expensive to solve.

This thesis emphasizes on efficient numerical algorithms for OUQ problems. It begins by investigating several classes of OUQ problems that can be reformulated as convex optimization problems. Conditions on the objective function and information constraints under which a convex formulation exists are presented. Since the size of the optimization problem can become quite large, solutions for scaling up are also discussed. Finally, the capability of analyzing a practical system through such convex formulations is demonstrated by a numerical example of energy storage placement in power grids.

When an equivalent convex formulation is unavailable, it is possible to find a convex problem that provides a meaningful bound for the original problem, also known as a convex relaxation. As an example, the thesis investigates the setting used in Hoeffding's inequality. The naive formulation requires solving a collection of non-convex polynomial optimization problems whose number grows doubly exponentially. After structures such as symmetry are exploited, it is shown that both the number and the size of the polynomial optimization problems can be reduced significantly. Each polynomial optimization problem is then bounded by its convex relaxation using sums-of-squares. These bounds are found to be tight in all the numerical examples tested in the thesis and are significantly better than Hoeffding's bounds.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Part I. Energy straggling of ^4He below 2.0 MeV in Al, Ni, Au and Pt. Part II. Studies of the Ti-W metallization system on Si

Part I.

In recent years, backscattering spectrometry has become an important tool for the analysis of thin films. An inherent limitation, though, is the loss of depth resolution due to energy straggling of the beam. To investigate this, energy straggling of ⁴He has been measured in thin films of Ni, Al, Au and Pt. Straggling is roughly proportional to square root of thickness, appears to have a slight energy dependence and generally decreases with decreasing atomic number of the adsorber. The results are compared with predictions of theory and with previous measurements. While Ni measurements are in fair agreement with Bohr's theory, Al measurements are 30% above and Au measurements are 40% below predicted values. The Au and Pt measurements give straggling values which are close to one another.

Part II.

MeV backscattering spectrometry and X-ray diffraction are used to investigate the behavior of sputter-deposited Ti-W mixed films on Si substrates. During vacuum anneals at temperatures near 700°C for several hours, the metallization layer reacts with the substrate. Backscattering analysis shows that the resulting compound layer is uniform in composition and contains Ti, Wand Si. The Ti:W ratio in the compound corresponds to that of the deposited metal film. X-ray analyses with Reed and Guinier cameras reveal the presence of the ternary Ti_xW_(1-x)Si₂ compound. Its composition is unaffected by oxygen contamination during annealing, but the reaction rate is affected. The rate measured on samples with about 15% oxygen contamination after annealing is linear, of the order of 0.5 Å per second at 725°C, and depends on the crystallographic orientation of the substrate and the dc bias during sputter-deposition of the Ti-W film.

Au layers of about 1000 Å thickness were deposited onto unreacted Ti-W films on Si. When annealed at 400°C these samples underwent a color change,and SEM micrographs of the samples showed that an intricate pattern of fissures which were typically 3µm wide had evolved. Analysis by electron microprobe revealed that Au had segregated preferentially into the fissures. This result suggests that Ti-W is not a barrier to Au-Si intermixing at 400°C.

Space-charge-limited current in fast neutron irradiated silicon

DC and transient measurements of space-charge-limited currents through alloyed and symmetrical n^+ν n^+ structures made of nominally 75 kΩcm ν-type silicon are studied before and after the introduction of defects by 14 MeV neutron radiation. In the transient measurements, the current response to a large turn-on voltage step is analyzed. Right after the voltage step is applied, the current transient reaches a value which we shall call "initial current" value. At longer times, the transient current decays from the initial current value if traps are present.

Before the irradiation, the initial current density-voltage characteristics J(V) agree quantitatively with the theory of trap-free space-charge-limited current in solids. We obtain for the electron mobility a temperature dependence which indicates that scattering due to impurities is weak. This is expected for the high purity silicon used. The drift velocity-field relationships for electrons at room temperature and 77°K, derived from the initial current density-voltage characteristics, are shown to fit the relationships obtained with other methods by other workers. The transient current response for t > 0 remains practically constant at the initial value, thus indicating negligible trapping.

Measurement of the initial (trap-free) current density-voltage characteristics after the irradiation indicates that the drift velocity-field relationship of electrons in silicon is affected by the radiation only at low temperature in the low field range. The effect is not sufficiently pronounced to be readily analyzed and no formal description of it is offered. In the transient response after irradiation for t > 0, the current decays from its initial value, thus revealing the presence of traps. To study these traps, in addition to transient measurements, the DC current characteristics were measured and shown to follow the theory of trap-dominated space-charge-limited current in solids. This theory was applied to a model consisting of two discrete levels in the forbidden band gap. Calculations and experiments agreed and the capture cross-sections of the trapping levels were obtained. This is the first experimental case known to us through which the flow of space-charge-limited current is so simply representable.

These results demonstrate the sensitivity of space-charge-limited current flow as a tool to detect traps and changes in the drift velocity-field relationship of carriers caused by radiation. They also establish that devices based on the mode of space-charge-limited current flow will be affected considerably by any type of radiation capable of introducing traps. This point has generally been overlooked so far, but is obviously quite significant.