Toppling Analysis of Precariously Balanced Rocks under Earthquake Excitation

Toppling analysis of a precariously balanced rock (PBR) can provide insights into the nature of ground motion that has not occurred at that location in the past and, by extension, realistic constraints on peak ground motions for use in engineering design. Earlier approaches have targeted simplistic 2-D models of the rock or modeled the rock-pedestal contact using spring-damper assemblies that require re-calibration for each rock. These analyses also assume that the rock does not slide on the pedestal. Here, a method to model PBRs in three dimensions is presented. The 3-D model is created from a point cloud of the rock, the pedestal, and their interface, obtained using Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS). The dynamic response of the model under earthquake excitation is simulated using a rigid body dynamics algorithm. The veracity of this approach is demonstrated by comparisons against data from shake table experiments. Fragility maps for toppling probability of the Echo Cliff PBR and the Pacifico PBR as a function of various ground motion parameters, rock-pedestal interface friction coefficient, and excitation direction are presented. The seismic hazard at these PBR locations is estimated using these maps. Additionally, these maps are used to assess whether the synthetic ground motions at these locations resulting from scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault are realistic (toppling would indicate that the ground motions are unrealistically high).

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.

Tectonics of Central and Eastern California, Late Cretaceous to Modern

The Late Cretaceous to Modern tectonic evolution of central and eastern California has been studied for many decades, with published work generally focusing on specific geographic areas and time periods. The resulting literature leaves the reader, whether graduate student, faculty member, or layperson, wondering what a coherently integrated tectonic evolution might look like, or if it would be at all possible to undertake such a task. This question is the common thread weaving together the four studies presented in this work. Each of the individual chapters is targeted at a specific location and time period which I have identified as a critical yet missing link in piecing together a coherent regional tectonic story. In the first chapter, we re-discover a set of major west down normal faults running along the western slope of the southern Sierra, the western Sierra fault system (WSFS). We show that one of these faults was offset by roughly a kilometer in Eocene time, and that this activity directly resulted in the incision of much of the relief present in modern Kings Canyon. The second chapter is a basement landscape and thermochronometric study of the hanging wall of the WSFS. New data from this study area provide a significant westward expansion of basement thermochronometric data from the southern Sierra Nevada batholith. Thermal modeling results of these data provide critical new constraints on the early exhumation of the Sierra Nevada batholith, and in the context of the results from Chapter I, allow us to piece together a coherent chronology of tectonic forcings and landscape evolution for the southern Sierra Nevada. In the third chapter, I present a study of the surface rupture of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake, a dextral strike slip event on a fault in the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). New constraints on the active tectonics in ECSZ will help future studies better resolve the enigmatic mismatch between geologic slip rates and geodetically determined regional rates. Chapter IV is a magnetostratigraphic pilot study of the Paleocene Goler Formation. This study provides strong evidence that continued investigation will yield new constraints on the depositional age of the only fossil-bearing Paleocene terrestrial deposit on the west coast of North America. Each of these studies aims to provide important new data at critical missing links in the tectonic evolution of central and eastern California.