Long term trends in the evolution of H(3) HA1 human influenza type A

We have studied the HA1 domain of 254 human influenza A(H3N2) virus genes for clues that might help identify characteristics of hemagglutinins (HAs) of circulating strains that are predictive of that strain’s epidemic potential. Our preliminary findings include the following. (i) The most parsimonious tree found requires 1,260 substitutions of which 712 are silent and 548 are replacement substitutions. (ii) The HA1 portion of the HA gene is evolving at a rate of 5.7 nucleotide substitutions/year or 5.7 × 10−3 substitutions/site per year. (iii) The replacement substitutions are distributed randomly across the three positions of the codon when allowance is made for the number of ways each codon can change the encoded amino acid. (iv) The replacement substitutions are not distributed randomly over the branches of the tree, there being 2.2 times more changes per tip branch than for non-tip branches. This result is independent of how the virus was amplified (egg grown or kidney cell grown) prior to sequencing or if sequencing was carried out directly on the original clinical specimen by PCR. (v) These excess changes on the tip branches are probably the result of a bias in the choice of strains to sequence and the detection of deleterious mutations that had not yet been removed by negative selection. (vi) There are six hypervariable codons accumulating replacement substitutions at an average rate that is 7.2 times that of the other varied codons. (vii) The number of variable codons in the trunk branches (the winners of the competitive race against the immune system) is 47 ± 5, significantly fewer than in the twigs (90 ± 7), which in turn is significantly fewer variable codons than in tip branches (175 ± 8). (viii) A minimum of one of every 12 branches has nodes at opposite ends representing viruses that reside on different continents. This is, however, no more than would be expected if one were to randomly reassign the continent of origin of the isolates. (ix) Of 99 codons with at least four mutations, 31 have ratios of non-silent to silent changes with probabilities less than 0.05 of occurring by chance, and 14 of those have probabilities <0.005. These observations strongly support positive Darwinian selection. We suggest that the small number of variable positions along the successful trunk lineage, together with knowledge of the codons that have shown positive selection, may provide clues that permit an improved prediction of which strains will cause epidemics and therefore should be used for vaccine production.

Visualization of Cavitated Vessels in Winter and Refilled Vessels in Spring in Diffuse-Porous Trees by Cryo-Scanning Electron Microscopy1

Xylem cavitation in winter and recovery from cavitation in the spring were visualized in two species of diffuse-porous trees, Betula platyphylla var. japonica Hara and Salix sachalinensis Fr. Schm., by cryo-scanning electron microscopy after freeze-fixation of living twigs. Water in the vessel lumina of the outer three annual rings of twigs of B. platyphylla var. japonica and of S. sachalinensis gradually disappeared during the period from January to March, an indication that cavitation occurs gradually in these species during the winter. In April, when no leaves had yet expanded, the lumina of most of the vessels of both species were filled with water. Many vessel lumina in twigs of both species were filled with water during the period from the subsequent growth season to the beginning of the next winter. These observations indicate that recovery in spring occurs before the onset of transpiration and that water transport through twigs occurs during the subsequent growing season. We found, moreover, that vessels repeat an annual cycle of winter cavitation and spring recovery from cavitation for several years until irreversible cavitation occurs.