Sources of selection bias in evaluating social programs: An interpretation of conventional measures and evidence on the effectiveness of matching as a program evaluation method

This paper decomposes the conventional measure of selection bias in observational studies into three components. The first two components are due to differences in the distributions of characteristics between participant and nonparticipant (comparison) group members: the first arises from differences in the supports, and the second from differences in densities over the region of common support. The third component arises from selection bias precisely defined. Using data from a recent social experiment, we find that the component due to selection bias, precisely defined, is smaller than the first two components. However, selection bias still represents a substantial fraction of the experimental impact estimate. The empirical performance of matching methods of program evaluation is also examined. We find that matching based on the propensity score eliminates some but not all of the measured selection bias, with the remaining bias still a substantial fraction of the estimated impact. We find that the support of the distribution of propensity scores for the comparison group is typically only a small portion of the support for the participant group. For values outside the common support, it is impossible to reliably estimate the effect of program participation using matching methods. If the impact of participation depends on the propensity score, as we find in our data, the failure of the common support condition severely limits matching compared with random assignment as an evaluation estimator.

Brain 5α-dihydroprogesterone and allopregnanolone synthesis in a mouse model of protracted social isolation

Allopregnanolone (ALLO), is a brain endogenous neurosteroid that binds with high affinity to γ-aminobutyric acid type A (GABAA) receptors and positively modulates the action of GABA at these receptors. Unlike ALLO, 5α-dihydroprogesterone (5α-DHP) binds with high affinity to intracellular progesterone receptors that regulate DNA transcription. To investigate the physiological roles of ALLO and 5α-DHP synthesized in brain, we have adopted a mouse model involving protracted social isolation. In the frontal cortex of mice, socially isolated for 6 weeks, both neurosteroids were decreased by approximately 50%. After administration of (17β)-17-(bis-1-methyl amino carbonyl) androstane-3,5-diene-3-carboxylic acid (SKF105,111), an inhibitor of the enzyme (5α-reductase Type I and II) that converts progesterone into 5α-DHP, the ALLO and 5α-DHP content of frontal cortex of both group-housed and socially isolated mice decreased exponentially to 10%–20% of control values in about 30 min. The fractional rate constants (k h−1) of ALLO and 5α-DHP decline multiplied by the ALLO and 5α-DHP concentrations at any given steady-state estimate the rate of synthesis required to maintain that steady state. After 6 weeks of social isolation, ALLO and 5α-DHP biosynthesis rates were decreased to 30% of the values calculated in group-housed mice. Moreover, in socially isolated mice, the expression of 5α-reductase Type I mRNA and protein was approximately 50% lower than in group-housed mice whereas 3α-hydroxysteroid oxidoreductase mRNA expression was equal in the two groups. Protracted social isolation in mice may provide a model to investigate whether 5α-DHP by a genomic action, and ALLO by a nongenomic mechanism down-regulate the action of drugs acting as agonists, partial agonists, or positive allosteric modulators of the benzodiazepine recognition sites expressed by GABAA receptors.