Slip complexity in earthquake fault models.

We summarize studies of earthquake fault models that give rise to slip complexities like those in natural earthquakes. For models of smooth faults between elastically deformable continua, it is critical that the friction laws involve a characteristic distance for slip weakening or evolution of surface state. That results in a finite nucleation size, or coherent slip patch size, h*. Models of smooth faults, using numerical cell size properly small compared to h*, show periodic response or complex and apparently chaotic histories of large events but have not been found to show small event complexity like the self-similar (power law) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics. This conclusion is supported in the present paper by fully inertial elastodynamic modeling of earthquake sequences. In contrast, some models of locally heterogeneous faults with quasi-independent fault segments, represented approximately by simulations with cell size larger than h* so that the model becomes "inherently discrete," do show small event complexity of the Gutenberg-Richter type. Models based on classical friction laws without a weakening length scale or for which the numerical procedure imposes an abrupt strength drop at the onset of slip have h* = 0 and hence always fall into the inherently discrete class. We suggest that the small-event complexity that some such models show will not survive regularization of the constitutive description, by inclusion of an appropriate length scale leading to a finite h*, and a corresponding reduction of numerical grid size.

Slip complexity in dynamic models of earthquake faults.

We summarize recent evidence that models of earthquake faults with dynamically unstable friction laws but no externally imposed heterogeneities can exhibit slip complexity. Two models are described here. The first is a one-dimensional model with velocity-weakening stick-slip friction; the second is a two-dimensional elastodynamic model with slip-weakening friction. Both exhibit small-event complexity and chaotic sequences of large characteristic events. The large events in both models are composed of Heaton pulses. We argue that the key ingredients of these models are reasonably accurate representations of the properties of real faults.

The problem of the spreading of a liquid film along a solid surface: A new mathematical formulation

A new mathematical model is proposed for the spreading of a liquid film on a solid surface. The model is based on the standard lubrication approximation for gently sloping films (with the no-slip condition for the fluid at the solid surface) in the major part of the film where it is not too thin. In the remaining and relatively small regions near the contact lines it is assumed that the so-called autonomy principle holds—i.e., given the material components, the external conditions, and the velocity of the contact lines along the surface, the behavior of the fluid is identical for all films. The resulting mathematical model is formulated as a free boundary problem for the classical fourth-order equation for the film thickness. A class of self-similar solutions to this free boundary problem is considered.

Analysis of variable (diversity) joining recombination in DNAdependent protein kinase (DNA-PK)-deficient mice reveals DNA-PK-independent pathways for both signal and coding joint formation

Previous studies have suggested that ionizing radiation causes irreparable DNA double-strand breaks in mice and cell lines harboring mutations in any of the three subunits of DNA-dependent protein kinase (DNA-PK) (the catalytic subunit, DNA-PKcs, or one of the DNA-binding subunits, Ku70 or Ku86). In actuality, these mutants vary in their ability to resolve double-strand breaks generated during variable (diversity) joining [V(D)J] recombination. Mutant cell lines and mice with targeted deletions in Ku70 or Ku86 are severely compromised in their ability to form coding and signal joints, the products of V(D)J recombination. It is noteworthy, however, that severe combined immunodeficient (SCID) mice, which bear a nonnull mutation in DNA-PKcs, are substantially less impaired in forming signal joints than coding joints. The current view holds that the defective protein encoded by the murine SCID allele retains enough residual function to support signal joint formation. An alternative hypothesis proposes that DNA-PKcs and Ku perform different roles in V(D)J recombination, with DNA-PKcs required only for coding joint formation. To resolve this issue, we examined V(D)J recombination in DNA-PKcs-deficient (SLIP) mice. We found that the effects of this mutation on coding and signal joint formation are identical to the effects of the SCID mutation. Signal joints are formed at levels 10-fold lower than in wild type, and one-half of these joints are aberrant. These data are incompatible with the notion that signal joint formation in SCID mice results from residual DNA-PKcs function, and suggest a third possibility: that DNA-PKcs normally plays an important but nonessential role in signal joint formation.

Identification of a Role for an Azide-Sensitive Factor in the Thylakoid Transport of the 17-Kilodalton Subunit of the Photosynthetic Oxygen-Evolving Complex1

We have examined the transport of the precursor of the 17-kD subunit of the photosynthetic O2-evolving complex (OE17) in intact chloroplasts in the presence of inhibitors that block two protein-translocation pathways in the thylakoid membrane. This precursor uses the transmembrane pH gradient-dependent pathway into the thylakoid lumen, and its transport across the thylakoid membrane is thought to be independent of ATP and the chloroplast SecA homolog, cpSecA. We unexpectedly found that azide, widely considered to be an inhibitor of cpSecA, had a profound effect on the targeting of the photosynthetic OE17 to the thylakoid lumen. By itself, azide caused a significant fraction of mature OE17 to accumulate in the stroma of intact chloroplasts. When added in conjunction with the protonophore nigericin, azide caused the maturation of a fraction of the stromal intermediate form of OE17, and this mature protein was found only in the stroma. Our data suggest that OE17 may use the sec-dependent pathway, especially when the transmembrane pH gradient-dependent pathway is inhibited. Under certain conditions, OE17 may be inserted across the thylakoid membrane far enough to allow removal of the transit peptide, but then may slip back out of the translocation machinery into the stromal compartment.

The repetition of large-earthquake ruptures.

This survey of well-documented repeated fault rupture confirms that some faults have exhibited a "characteristic" behavior during repeated large earthquakes--that is, the magnitude, distribution, and style of slip on the fault has repeated during two or more consecutive events. In two cases faults exhibit slip functions that vary little from earthquake to earthquake. In one other well-documented case, however, fault lengths contrast markedly for two consecutive ruptures, but the amount of offset at individual sites was similar. Adjacent individual patches, 10 km or more in length, failed singly during one event and in tandem during the other. More complex cases of repetition may also represent the failure of several distinct patches. The faults of the 1992 Landers earthquake provide an instructive example of such complexity. Together, these examples suggest that large earthquakes commonly result from the failure of one or more patches, each characterized by a slip function that is roughly invariant through consecutive earthquake cycles. The persistence of these slip-patches through two or more large earthquakes indicates that some quasi-invariant physical property controls the pattern and magnitude of slip. These data seem incompatible with theoretical models that produce slip distributions that are highly variable in consecutive large events.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks.

Dynamic friction and the origin of the complexity of earthquake sources.

We study a simple antiplane fault of finite length embedded in a homogeneous isotropic elastic solid to understand the origin of seismic source heterogeneity in the presence of nonlinear rate- and state-dependent friction. All the mechanical properties of the medium and friction are assumed homogeneous. Friction includes a characteristic length that is longer than the grid size so that our models have a well-defined continuum limit. Starting from a heterogeneous initial stress distribution, we apply a slowly increasing uniform stress load far from the fault and we simulate the seismicity for a few 1000 events. The style of seismicity produced by this model is determined by a control parameter associated with the degree of rate dependence of friction. For classical friction models with rate-independent friction, no complexity appears and seismicity is perfectly periodic. For weakly rate-dependent friction, large ruptures are still periodic, but small seismicity becomes increasingly nonstationary. When friction is highly rate-dependent, seismicity becomes nonperiodic and ruptures of all sizes occur inside the fault. Highly rate-dependent friction destabilizes the healing process producing premature healing of slip and partial stress drop. Partial stress drop produces large variations in the state of stress that in turn produce earthquakes of different sizes. Similar results have been found by other authors using the Burridge and Knopoff model. We conjecture that all models in which static stress drop is only a fraction of the dynamic stress drop produce stress heterogeneity.

The organization of seismicity on fault networks.

Although models of homogeneous faults develop seismicity that has a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, this is only a transient state that is followed by events that are strongly influenced by the nature of the boundaries. Models with geometrical inhomogeneities of fracture thresholds can limit the sizes of earthquakes but now favor the characteristic earthquake model for large earthquakes. The character of the seismicity is extremely sensitive to distributions of inhomogeneities, suggesting that statistical rules for large earthquakes in one region may not be applicable to large earthquakes in another region. Model simulations on simple networks of faults with inhomogeneities of threshold develop episodes of lacunarity on all members of the network. There is no validity to the popular assumption that the average rate of slip on individual faults is a constant. Intermediate term precursory activity such as local quiescence and increases in intermediate-magnitude activity at long range are simulated well by the assumption that strong weakening of faults by injection of fluids and weakening of asperities on inhomogeneous models of fault networks is the dominant process; the heat flow paradox, the orientation of the stress field, and the low average stress drop in some earthquakes are understood in terms of the asperity model of inhomogeneous faulting.

Geometric incompatibility in a fault system.

Interdependence between geometry of a fault system, its kinematics, and seismicity is investigated. Quantitative measure is introduced for inconsistency between a fixed configuration of faults and the slip rates on each fault. This measure, named geometric incompatibility (G), depicts summarily the instability near the fault junctions: their divergence or convergence ("unlocking" or "locking up") and accumulation of stress and deformations. Accordingly, the changes in G are connected with dynamics of seismicity. Apart from geometric incompatibility, we consider deviation K from well-known Saint Venant condition of kinematic compatibility. This deviation depicts summarily unaccounted stress and strain accumulation in the region and/or internal inconsistencies in a reconstruction of block- and fault system (its geometry and movements). The estimates of G and K provide a useful tool for bringing together the data on different types of movement in a fault system. An analog of Stokes formula is found that allows determination of the total values of G and K in a region from the data on its boundary. The phenomenon of geometric incompatibility implies that nucleation of strong earthquakes is to large extent controlled by processes near fault junctions. The junctions that have been locked up may act as transient asperities, and unlocked junctions may act as transient weakest links. Tentative estimates of K and G are made for each end of the Big Bend of the San Andreas fault system in Southern California. Recent strong earthquakes Landers (1992, M = 7.3) and Northridge (1994, M = 6.7) both reduced K but had opposite impact on G: Landers unlocked the area, whereas Northridge locked it up again.

Numerical vorticity creation based on impulse conservation.

The problem of creating solenoidal vortex elements to satisfy no-slip boundary conditions in Lagrangian numerical vortex methods is solved through the use of impulse elements at walls and their subsequent conversion to vortex loops. The algorithm is not uniquely defined, due to the gauge freedom in the definition of impulse; the numerically optimal choice of gauge remains to be determined. Two different choices are discussed, and an application to flow past a sphere is sketched.