A joint hazard and time scaling model to compare survival curves.

To provide a more general method for comparing survival experience, we propose a model that independently scales both hazard and time dimensions. To test the curve shape similarity of two time-dependent hazards, h1(t) and h2(t), we apply the proposed hazard relationship, h12(tKt)/ h1(t) = Kh, to h1. This relationship doubly scales h1 by the constant hazard and time scale factors, Kh and Kt, producing a transformed hazard, h12, with the same underlying curve shape as h1. We optimize the match of h12 to h2 by adjusting Kh and Kt. The corresponding survival relationship S12(tKt) = [S1(t)]KtKh transforms S1 into a new curve S12 of the same underlying shape that can be matched to the original S2. We apply this model to the curves for regional and local breast cancer contained in the National Cancer Institute's End Results Registry (1950-1973). Scaling the original regional curves, h1 and S1 with Kt = 1.769 and Kh = 0.263 produces transformed curves h12 and S12 that display congruence with the respective local curves, h2 and S2. This similarity of curve shapes suggests the application of the more complete curve shapes for regional disease as templates to predict the long-term survival pattern for local disease. By extension, this similarity raises the possibility of scaling early data for clinical trial curves according to templates of registry or previous trial curves, projecting long-term outcomes and reducing costs. The proposed model includes as special cases the widely used proportional hazards (Kt = 1) and accelerated life (KtKh = 1) models.

Bioenergetic scaling: metabolic design and body-size constraints in mammals.

The cytosolic phosphorylation ratio ([ATP]/[ADP][P(i)]) in the mammalian heart was found to be inversely related to body mass with an exponent of -0.30 (r = 0.999). This exponent is similar to -0.25 calculated for the mass-specific O2 consumption. The inverse of cytosolic free [ADP], the Gibbs energy of ATP hydrolysis (delta G'ATP), and the efficiency of ATP production (energy captured in forming 3 mol of ATP per cycle along the mitochondrial respiratory chain from NADH to 1/2 O2) were all found to scale with body mass with a negative exponent. On the basis of scaling of the phosphorylation ratio and free cytosolic [ADP], we propose that the myocardium and other tissues of small mammals represent a metabolic system with a higher driving potential (a higher delta G'ATP from the higher [ATP]/[ADP][P(i)]) and a higher kinetic gain [(delta V/Vmax)/delta [ADP]] where small changes in free [ADP] produce large changes in steady-state rates of O2 consumption. From the inverse relationship between mitochondrial efficiency and body size we calculate that tissues of small mammals are more efficient than those of large mammals in converting energy from the oxidation of foodstuffs to the bond energy of ATP. A higher efficiency also indicates that mitochondrial electron transport is not the major site for higher heat production in small mammals. We further propose that the lower limit of about 2 g for adult endotherm body size (bumblebee-bat, Estrucan shrew, and hummingbird) may be set by the thermodynamics of the electron transport chain. The upper limit for body size (100,000-kg adult blue whale) may relate to a minimum delta G'ATP of approximately 55 kJ/mol for a cytoplasmic phosphorylation ratio of 12,000 M-1.