Correlates of the desired family size among Indian communities.

The People of India database of the Anthropological Survey of India documents 631 cultural, ecological, and economic traits of the 4635 communities to which the entire Indian population is assigned. Focusing on 1342 communities of South India, we looked for correlates of low (1 or 2 children) and high (4 or more children) desired family size (DFS) reported as the norm for any given community by key informants. We found 10 cultural and 18 economic traits to be significantly correlated to high DFS and 21 cultural and 9 economic traits to low DFS. The economic traits so identified are compatible with high family size being desired by parents who have little capability of investing in quality of offspring, but whose children contribute economically from an early age. In contrast, communities desiring low family size are part of the modern intensive agriculture/organized industry/services sector and invest heavily in educating their children. A composite index based on 27 economic traits (CEI) has a high predictive value with respect to the DFS for the entire set of 4635 Indian communities. The 31 cultural traits highly correlated to high or low DFS constitute 5 clusters that can be identified as characterizing scheduled tribes, scheduled castes, rural and landless lower castes, urban upper castes, and Moslems. Whereas economic traits have similar influence on DFS within each of these ethnic categories, Moslems demonstrate a significantly higher DFS for lower values of CEI.

Correlation of individual papilloma latency time with DNA adducts, 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine, and the rate of DNA synthesis in the epidermis of mice treated with 7,12-dimethylbenz[alpha]anthracene.

The question was addressed whether the risk of cancer of an individual in a heterogeneous population can be predicted on the basis of measurable biochemical and biological variables postulated to be associated with the process of chemical carcinogenesis. Using the skin tumor model with outbred male NMRI mice, the latency time for the appearance of a papilloma was used as an indicator of the individual cancer risk. Starting at 8 weeks of age, a group of 29 mice was treated twice weekly with 20 nmol of 7,12-dimethylbenz[alpha]anthracene (DMBA) applied to back skin. The individual papilloma latency time ranged from 13.5 to 25 weeks of treatment. Two weeks after the appearance of the first papilloma in each mouse, an osmotic minipump delivering 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine was s.c. implanted and the mouse was killed 24 hr later. Levels of DMBA-DNA adducts, of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine, and various measures of the kinetics of cell division were determined in the epidermis of the treated skin area. The levels of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine and the fraction of cells in DNA replication (labeling index for the incorporation of 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine) were significantly higher in those mice that showed short latency times. On the other hand, the levels of DMBA-DNA adducts were lowest in animals with short latency times. The latter finding was rather unexpected but can be explained as a consequence of the inverse correlation seen for the labeling index: with each round of cell division, the adduct concentration is reduced to 50% because the new DNA strand is free of DMBA adducts until the next treatment. Under the conditions of this bioassay, therefore, oxygen radical-related genotoxicity and the rate of cell division, rather than levels of carcinogen-DNA adducts, were found to be of predictive value as indicators of an individual cancer risk.

Mutation detection by highly sensitive methods indicates that p53 gene mutations in breast cancer can have important prognostic value.

Human cancer cells with a mutated p53 tumor-suppressor gene have a selective growth advantage and may exhibit resistance to ionizing radiation and certain chemotherapeutic agents. To examine the prognostic value of mutations in the p53 gene, a cohort of 90 Midwestern Caucasian breast cancer patients were analyzed with methodology that detects virtually 100% of all mutations. The presence of a p53 gene mutation was by far the single most predictive indicator for recurrence and death (relative risks of 4.7 and 23.2, respectively). Direct detection of p53 mutations had substantially greater prognostic value than immunohistochemical detection of p53 overexpression. Analysis of p53 gene mutations may permit identification of a subset of breast cancer patients who, despite lack of conventional indicators of poor prognosis, are at high risk of early recurrence and death.