Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

Estimating sequestered parasite population dynamics in cerebral malaria

Clinical investigation of malaria is hampered by the lack of a method for estimating the number of parasites that are sequestered in the tissues, for it is these parasites that are thought to be crucial to the pathogenesis of life-threatening complications such as cerebral malaria. We present a method of estimating this hidden population by using clinical observations of peripheral parasitemia combined with an age-structured mathematical model of the parasite erythrocyte cycle. Applying the model to data from 217 Gambian children undergoing treatment for cerebral malaria we conclude that although artemether clears parasitemia more rapidly than quinine, the clearance of sequestered parasites is similar for the two drugs. The estimated sequestered mass was found to be a more direct predictor of fatal outcome than clinically observed parasitemia. This method allows a sequential analysis of sequestered parasite population dynamics in children suffering from cerebral malaria, and the results offer a possible explanation for why artemether provides less advantage than might have been expected over quinine in reducing mortality despite its rapid effect on circulating parasites.

A model-based approach for assessing in vivo combination therapy interactions

We present an approach for evaluating the efficacy of combination antitumor agent schedules that accounts for order and timing of drug administration. Our model-based approach compares in vivo tumor volume data over a time course and offers a quantitative definition for additivity of drug effects, relative to which synergism and antagonism are interpreted. We begin by fitting data from individual mice receiving at most one drug to a differential equation tumor growth/drug effect model and combine individual parameter estimates to obtain population statistics. Using two null hypotheses: (i) combination therapy is consistent with additivity or (ii) combination therapy is equivalent to treating with the more effective single agent alone, we compute predicted tumor growth trajectories and their distribution for combination treated animals. We illustrate this approach by comparing entire observed and expected tumor volume trajectories for a data set in which HER-2/neu-overexpressing MCF-7 human breast cancer xenografts are treated with a humanized, anti-HER-2 monoclonal antibody (rhuMAb HER-2), doxorubicin, or one of five proposed combination therapy schedules.

Vibrational population relaxation of carbon monoxide in the heme pocket of photolyzed carbonmonoxy myoglobin: Comparison of time-resolved mid-IR absorbance experiments and molecular dynamics simulations

The vibrational energy relaxation of carbon monoxide in the heme pocket of sperm whale myoglobin was studied by using molecular dynamics simulation and normal mode analysis methods. Molecular dynamics trajectories of solvated myoglobin were run at 300 K for both the δ- and ɛ-tautomers of the distal His-64. Vibrational population relaxation times of 335 ± 115 ps for the δ-tautomer and 640 ± 185 ps for the ɛ-tautomer were estimated by using the Landau–Teller model. Normal mode analysis was used to identify those protein residues that act as the primary “doorway” modes in the vibrational relaxation of the oscillator. Although the CO relaxation rates in both the ɛ- and δ-tautomers are similar in magnitude, the simulations predict that the vibrational relaxation of the CO is faster in the δ-tautomer with the distal His playing an important role in the energy relaxation mechanism. Time-resolved mid-IR absorbance measurements were performed on photolyzed carbonmonoxy hemoglobin (Hb13CO). From these measurements, a T1 time of 600 ± 150 ps was determined. The simulation and experimental estimates are compared and discussed.

Social transmission of reproductive behavior increases frequency of inherited disorders in a young-expanding population

The observation of high frequencies of certain inherited disorders in the population of Saguenay–Lac Saint Jean can be explained in terms of the variance and the correlation of effective family size (EFS) from one generation to the next. We have shown this effect by using the branching process approach with real demographic data. When variance of EFS is included in the model, despite its profound effect on mutant allele frequency, any mutant introduced in the population never reaches the known carrier frequencies (between 0.035 and 0.05). It is only when the EFS correlation between generations is introduced into the model that we can explain the rise of the mutant alleles. This correlation is described by a c parameter that reflects the dependency of children’s EFS on their parents’ EFS. The c parameter can be considered to reflect social transmission of demographic behavior. We show that such social transmission dramatically reduces the effective population size. This could explain particular distributions in allele frequencies and unusually high frequency of certain inherited disorders in some human populations.

Population regulation in snowshoe hare and Canadian lynx: Asymmetric food web configurations between hare and lynx

The snowshoe hare and the Canadian lynx in the boreal forests of North America show 9- to 11-year density cycles. These are generally assumed to be linked to each other because lynx are specialist predators on hares. Based on time series data for hare and lynx, we show that the dominant dimensional structure of the hare series appears to be three whereas that of the lynx is two. The three-dimensional structure of the hare time series is hypothesized to be due to a three-trophic level model in which the hare may be seen as simultaneously regulated from below and above. The plant species in the hare diet appear compensatory to one another, and the predator species may, likewise, be seen as an internally compensatory guild. The lynx time series are, in contrast, consistent with a model of donor control in which their populations are regulated from below by prey availability. Thus our analysis suggests that the classic view of a symmetric hare–lynx interaction is too simplistic. Specifically, we argue that the classic food chain structure is inappropriate: the hare is influenced by many predators other than the lynx, and the lynx is primarily influenced by the snowshoe hare.

Overexpression of p27Kip1 lengthens the G1 phase in a mouse model that targets inducible gene expression to central nervous system progenitor cells

We describe a mouse model in which p27Kip1 transgene expression is spatially restricted to the central nervous system neuroepithelium and temporally controlled with doxycycline. Transgene-specific transcripts are detectable within 6 h of doxycycline administration, and maximum nonlethal expression is approached within 12 h. After 18–26 h of transgene expression, the G1 phase of the cell cycle is estimated to increase from 9 to 13 h in the neocortical neuroepithelium, the maximum G1 phase length attainable in this proliferative population in normal mice. Thus our data establish a direct link between p27Kip1 and control of G1 phase length in the mammalian central nervous system and unveil intrinsic mechanisms that constrain the G1 phase length to a putative physiological maximum despite ongoing p27Kip1 transgene expression.

Maize as a model for the evolution of plant nuclear genomes

The maize genome is replete with chromosomal duplications and repetitive DNA. The duplications resulted from an ancient polyploid event that occurred over 11 million years ago. Based on DNA sequence data, the polyploid event occurred after the divergence between sorghum and maize, and hence the polyploid event explains some of the difference in DNA content between these two species. Genomic rearrangement and diploidization followed the polyploid event. Most of the repetitive DNA in the maize genome is retrotransposable elements, and they comprise 50% of the genome. Retrotransposon multiplication has been relatively recent—within the last 5–6 million years—suggesting that the proliferation of retrotransposons has also contributed to differences in DNA content between sorghum and maize. There are still unanswered questions about repetitive DNA, including the distribution of repetitive DNA throughout the genome, the relative impacts of retrotransposons and chromosomal duplication in plant genome evolution, and the hypothesized correlation of duplication events with transposition. Population genetic processes also affect the evolution of genomes. We discuss how centromeric genes should, in theory, contain less genetic diversity than noncentromeric genes. In addition, studies of diversity in the wild relatives of maize indicate that different genes have different histories and also show that domestication and intensive breeding have had heterogeneous effects on genetic diversity across genes.

Nitric oxide production in SJL mice bearing the RcsX lymphoma: a model for in vivo toxicological evaluation of NO.

SJL mice spontaneously develop pre-B-cell lymphoma that we hypothesized might stimulate macrophages to produce nitric oxide (NO.). Transplantation of an aggressive lymphoma (RcsX) was used to induce tumor formation. Urinary nitrate excretion was measured as an index of NO. production and was found to increase 50-fold by 13 days after tumor injection. NO. production was prevented by the addition of a nitric oxide synthase (NOS) inhibitor. The expression of inducible NOS (iNOS) in various tissues was estimated by Western blot analysis and localized by immunohistochemistry. The synthase was detected in the spleen, lymph nodes, and liver of treated but not control mice. To assess whether the iNOS-staining cells were macrophages, spleen sections from ResX-bearing animals were costained with anti-iNOS antibody and the anti-macrophage antibody moma-2. Expression of iNOS was found to be limited to a subset of the macrophage population. The concentration of gamma-interferon, a cytokine known to induce NO. production by macrophages, in the serum of tumor-bearing mice, was measured and found to be elevated 25-fold above untreated mice. The ability of ResX-activated macrophages to inhibit splenocyte growth in primary culture was estimated and macrophage-derived NO. was found to inhibit cell division 10-fold. Our findings demonstrate that ResX cells stimulate NO. production by macrophages in the spleen and lymph nodes of SJL mice, and we believe this experimental model will prove useful for study of the toxicological effects of NO. under physiological conditions.

A model of multiplicative neural responses in parietal cortex.

Visual responses of neurons in parietal area 7a are modulated by a combined eye and head position signal in a multiplicative manner. Neurons with multiplicative responses can act as powerful computational elements in neural networks. In the case of parietal cortex, multiplicative gain modulation appears to play a crucial role in the transformation of object locations from retinal to body-centered coordinates. It has proven difficult to uncover single-neuron mechanisms that account for neuronal multiplication. Here we show that multiplicative responses can arise in a network model through population effects. Specifically, neurons in a recurrently connected network with excitatory connections between similarly tuned neurons and inhibitory connections between differently tuned neurons can perform a product operation on additive synaptic inputs. The results suggest that parietal responses may be based on this architecture.

A model of self-thinning through local competition.

Explanations of self-thinning in plant populations have focused on plant shape and packing. A dynamic model based on the structure of local interactions successfully reproduces the pattern and can be approximated to identify key parameters and relationships. The approach generates testable new explanations for differences between species and populations, unifies self-thinning with other patterns in plant population dynamics, and indicates why organisms other than plants can follow the law.

Unusual dynamics of extinction in a simple ecological model.

Studies on natural populations and harvesting biological resources have led to the view, commonly held, that (i) populations exhibiting chaotic oscillations run a high risk of extinction; and (ii) a decrease in emigration/exploitation may reduce the risk of extinction. Here we describe a simple ecological model with emigration/depletion that shows behavior in contrast to this. This model displays unusual dynamics of extinction and survival, where populations growing beyond a critical rate can persist within a band of high depletion rates, whereas extinction occurs for lower depletion rates. Though prior to extinction at lower depletion rates the population exhibits chaotic dynamics with large amplitudes of variation and very low minima, at higher depletion rates the population persists at chaos but with reduced variation and increased minima. For still higher values, within the band of persistence, the dynamics show period reversal leading to stability. These results illustrate that chaos does not necessarily lead to population extinction. In addition, the persistence of populations at high depletion rates has important implications in the considerations of strategies for the management of biological resources.

An n-allele model for progressive amplification in the FMR1 locus.

An n-allele model is developed for the FMR1 locus, which causes the fragile X syndrome, where n is the number of triplet repeats in the first exon. Frequencies in the general population and in index families are used to generate an n to n + delta transition matrix that predicts specific risks in satisfactory agreement with observation. However, until sequencing distinguishes between stable and unstable alleles with the same value of n, it is premature to infer whether allelic frequencies at the FMR1 locus are at equilibrium or, as some have suggested, are evolving toward higher frequencies of the pathogenic allele.