Instability of signaling resolution models of parent–offspring conflict

Recent signaling resolution models of parent–offspring conflict have provided an important framework for theoretical and empirical studies of communication and parental care. According to these models, signaling of need is stabilized by its cost. However, our computer simulations of the evolutionary dynamics of chick begging and parental investment show that in Godfray’s model the signaling equilibrium is evolutionarily unstable: populations that start at the signaling equilibrium quickly depart from it. Furthermore, the signaling and nonsignaling equilibria are linked by a continuum of equilibria where chicks above a certain condition do not signal and we show that, contrary to intuition, fitness increases monotonically as the proportion of young that signal decreases. This result forces us to reconsider much of the current literature on signaling of need and highlights the need to investigate the evolutionary stability of signaling equilibria based on the handicap principle.

Neural systems underlying learning and representation of global motion

We demonstrate performance-related changes in cortical and cerebellar activity. The largest learning-dependent changes were observed in the anterior lateral cerebellum, where the extent and intensity of activation correlated inversely with psychophysical performance. After learning had occurred (a few minutes), the cerebellar activation almost disappeared; however, it was restored when the subjects were presented with a novel, untrained direction of motion for which psychophysical performance also reverted to chance level. Similar reductions in the extent and intensity of brain activations in relation to learning occurred in the superior colliculus, anterior cingulate, and parts of the extrastriate cortex. The motion direction-sensitive middle temporal visual complex was a notable exception, where there was an expansion of the cortical territory activated by the trained stimulus. Together, these results indicate that the learning and representation of visual motion discrimination are mediated by different, but probably interacting, neuronal subsystems.

Modeling the impact of global tuberculosis control strategies

An epidemiological model of tuberculosis has been developed and applied to five regions of the world. Globally, 6.7 million new cases of tuberculosis and 2.4 million deaths from tuberculosis are estimated for 1998. Based on current trends in uptake of the World Health Organization’s strategy of directly observed treatment, short-course, we expect a total of 225 million new cases and 79 million deaths from tuberculosis between 1998 and 2030. Active case-finding by using mass miniature radiography could save 23 million lives over this period. A single contact treatment for tuberculosis could avert 24 million cases and 11 million deaths; combined with active screening, it could reduce mortality by nearly 40%. A new vaccine with 50% efficacy could lower incidence by 36 million cases and mortality by 9 million deaths. Support for major extensions to global tuberculosis control strategies will occur only if the size of the problem and the potential for action are recognized more widely.

Dissociation of response conflict, attentional selection, and expectancy with functional magnetic resonance imaging

Two different attentional networks have been associated with visuospatial attention and conflict resolution. In most situations either one of the two networks is active or both are increased in activity together. By using functional magnetic resonance imaging and a flanker task, we show conditions in which one network (anterior attention system) is increased in activity whereas the other (visuospatial attention system) is reduced, showing that attentional conflict and selection are separate aspects of attention. Further, we distinguish between neural systems involved in different forms of conflict. Specifically, we dissociate patterns of activity in the basal ganglia and insula cortex during simple violations in expectancies (i.e., sudden changes in the frequency of an event) from patterns of activity in the anterior attention system specifically correlated with response conflict as evidenced by longer response latencies and more errors. These data provide a systems-level approach in understanding integrated attentional networks.

Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer.

Dependence of global temperatures on atmospheric CO2 and solar irradiance

Changes in global average temperatures and of the seasonal cycle are strongly coupled to the concentration of atmospheric CO2. I estimate transfer functions from changes in atmospheric CO2 and from changes in solar irradiance to hemispheric temperatures that have been corrected for the effects of precession. They show that changes from CO2 over the last century are about three times larger than those from changes in solar irradiance. The increase in global average temperature during the last century is at least 20 times the SD of the residual temperature series left when the effects of CO2 and changes in solar irradiance are subtracted.