Models for stochastic climate prediction

There has been a recent burst of activity in the atmosphere/ocean sciences community in utilizing stable linear Langevin stochastic models for the unresolved degree of freedom in stochastic climate prediction. Here several idealized models for stochastic climate modeling are introduced and analyzed through unambiguous mathematical theory. This analysis demonstrates the potential need for more sophisticated models beyond stable linear Langevin equations. The new phenomena include the emergence of both unstable linear Langevin stochastic models for the climate mean and the need to incorporate both suitable nonlinear effects and multiplicative noise in stochastic models under appropriate circumstances. The strategy for stochastic climate modeling that emerges from this analysis is illustrated on an idealized example involving truncated barotropic flow on a beta-plane with topography and a mean flow. In this example, the effect of the original 57 degrees of freedom is well represented by a theoretically predicted stochastic model with only 3 degrees of freedom.

Perceptual learning reflects external noise filtering and internal noise reduction through channel reweighting

To investigate the nature of plasticity in the adult visual system, perceptual learning was measured in a peripheral orientation discrimination task with systematically varying amounts of external (environmental) noise. The signal contrasts required to achieve threshold were reduced by a factor or two or more after training at all levels of external noise. The strong quantitative regularities revealed by this novel paradigm ruled out changes in multiplicative internal noise, changes in transducer nonlinearites, and simple attentional tradeoffs. Instead, the regularities specify the mechanisms of perceptual learning at the behavioral level as a combination of external noise exclusion and stimulus enhancement via additive internal noise reduction. The findings also constrain the neural architecture of perceptual learning. Plasticity in the weights between basic visual channels and decision is sufficient to account for perceptual learning without requiring the retuning of visual mechanisms.

Neuronal calcium sparks and intracellular calcium “noise”

Intracellular calcium ions are involved in many forms of cellular function. To accommodate so many control functions, a complex spatiotemporal organization of calcium signaling has developed. In both excitable and nonexcitable cells, calcium signaling was found to fluctuate. Sudden localized increases in the intracellular calcium concentration—or calcium sparks—were found in heart, striated and smooth muscle, Xenopus Laevis oocytes, and HeLa and P12 cells. In the nervous system, intracellular calcium ions were found important in key processes such as transmitter release, repetitive firing, and gene expression. Hence, we examined whether calcium sparks also exist in neurons. Using confocal laser-scanning microscopy and fluorescent probes, we found that calcium sparks exist in two types of neuronal preparations: the presynaptic boutons of the lizard neuromuscular junction and rat hippocampal neurons in cell culture. Control experiments exclude the possibility that these calcium sparks originate from instrumental or biological artifacts. Calcium sparks seem to be just the tip of the iceberg of a more general phenomenon of intracellular calcium “noise.” We speculate that calcium sparks and calcium noise may be of key importance in calcium signaling in the nervous system.

Noise in neurons is message dependent

Neuronal responses are conspicuously variable. We focus on one particular aspect of that variability: the precision of action potential timing. We show that for common models of noisy spike generation, elementary considerations imply that such variability is a function of the input, and can be made arbitrarily large or small by a suitable choice of inputs. Our considerations are expected to extend to virtually any mechanism of spike generation, and we illustrate them with data from the visual pathway. Thus, a simplification usually made in the application of information theory to neural processing is violated: noise is not independent of the message. However, we also show the existence of error-correcting topologies, which can achieve better timing reliability than their components.

Titration of chaos with added noise

Deterministic chaos has been implicated in numerous natural and man-made complex phenomena ranging from quantum to astronomical scales and in disciplines as diverse as meteorology, physiology, ecology, and economics. However, the lack of a definitive test of chaos vs. random noise in experimental time series has led to considerable controversy in many fields. Here we propose a numerical titration procedure as a simple “litmus test” for highly sensitive, specific, and robust detection of chaos in short noisy data without the need for intensive surrogate data testing. We show that the controlled addition of white or colored noise to a signal with a preexisting noise floor results in a titration index that: (i) faithfully tracks the onset of deterministic chaos in all standard bifurcation routes to chaos; and (ii) gives a relative measure of chaos intensity. Such reliable detection and quantification of chaos under severe conditions of relatively low signal-to-noise ratio is of great interest, as it may open potential practical ways of identifying, forecasting, and controlling complex behaviors in a wide variety of physical, biomedical, and socioeconomic systems.

Intrinsic noise in gene regulatory networks

Cells are intrinsically noisy biochemical reactors: low reactant numbers can lead to significant statistical fluctuations in molecule numbers and reaction rates. Here we use an analytic model to investigate the emergent noise properties of genetic systems. We find for a single gene that noise is essentially determined at the translational level, and that the mean and variance of protein concentration can be independently controlled. The noise strength immediately following single gene induction is almost twice the final steady-state value. We find that fluctuations in the concentrations of a regulatory protein can propagate through a genetic cascade; translational noise control could explain the inefficient translation rates observed for genes encoding such regulatory proteins. For an autoregulatory protein, we demonstrate that negative feedback efficiently decreases system noise. The model can be used to predict the noise characteristics of networks of arbitrary connectivity. The general procedure is further illustrated for an autocatalytic protein and a bistable genetic switch. The analysis of intrinsic noise reveals biological roles of gene network structures and can lead to a deeper understanding of their evolutionary origin.

A model of multiplicative neural responses in parietal cortex.

Visual responses of neurons in parietal area 7a are modulated by a combined eye and head position signal in a multiplicative manner. Neurons with multiplicative responses can act as powerful computational elements in neural networks. In the case of parietal cortex, multiplicative gain modulation appears to play a crucial role in the transformation of object locations from retinal to body-centered coordinates. It has proven difficult to uncover single-neuron mechanisms that account for neuronal multiplication. Here we show that multiplicative responses can arise in a network model through population effects. Specifically, neurons in a recurrently connected network with excitatory connections between similarly tuned neurons and inhibitory connections between differently tuned neurons can perform a product operation on additive synaptic inputs. The results suggest that parietal responses may be based on this architecture.