Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: Evolutionary predictions and ecological implications

Variability in population growth rate is thought to have negative consequences for organism fitness. Theory for matrix population models predicts that variance in population growth rate should be the sum of the variance in each matrix entry times the squared sensitivity term for that matrix entry. I analyzed the stage-specific demography of 30 field populations from 17 published studies for pattern between the variance of a demographic term and its contribution to population growth. There were no instances in which a matrix entry both was highly variable and had a large effect on population growth rate; instead, correlations between estimates of temporal variance in a term and contribution to population growth (sensitivity or elasticity) were overwhelmingly negative. In addition, survivorship or growth sensitivities or elasticities always exceeded those of fecundity, implying that the former two terms always contributed more to population growth rate. These results suggest that variable life history stages tend to contribute relatively little to population growth rates because natural selection may alter life histories to minimize stages with both high sensitivity and high variation.

Genetic drift and within-host metapopulation dynamics of HIV-1 infection

Most HIV replication occurs in solid lymphoid tissue, which has prominent architecture at the histological level, which separates groups of productively infected CD4+ cells. Nevertheless, current population models of HIV assume panmixis within lymphoid tissue. We present a simple “metapopulation” model of HIV replication, where the population of infected cells is comprised of a large number of small populations, each of which is established by a few founder viruses and undergoes turnover. To test this model, we analyzed viral genetic variation of infected cell subpopulations within the spleen and demonstrated the action of founder effects as well as significant variation in the extent of genetic differentiation between subpopulations among patients. The combination of founder effects and subpopulation turnover can result in an effective population size much lower than the actual population size and may contribute to the importance of genetic drift in HIV evolution despite a large number of infected cells.

Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

A genetic record of population isolation in pocket gophers during Holocene climatic change

A long-standing question in Quaternary paleontology is whether climate-induced, population-level phenotypic change is a result of large-scale migration or evolution in isolation. To directly measure genetic variation through time, ancient DNA and morphologic variation was measured over 2,400 years in a Holocene sequence of pocket gophers (Thomomys talpoides) from Lamar Cave, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming. Ancient specimens and modern samples collected near Lamar Cave share mitochondrial cytochrome b sequences that are absent from adjacent localities, suggesting that the population was isolated for the entire period. In contrast, diastemal length, a morphologic character correlated with body size and nutritional level, changed predictably in response to climatic change. Our results demonstrate that small mammal populations can experience the long-term isolation assumed by many theoretical models of microevolutionary change.

Different population dynamics of human T cell lymphotropic virus type II in intravenous drug users compared with endemically infected tribes

The phylogeny of human T cell lymphotropic virus type II (HTLV-II) was investigated by using strains isolated from Amerindian and Pygmy tribes, in which the virus is maintained primarily through mother-to-child transmission via breast-feeding, and strains from intravenous drug users (IDUs), in which spread is mainly blood-borne via needle sharing. Molecular clock analysis showed that HTLV-II has two different evolutionary rates with the molecular clock for the virus in IDUs ticking 150–350 times faster than the one in endemically infected tribes: 2.7 × 10−4 compared with 1.71/7.31 × 10−7 nucleotide substitutions per site per year in the long terminal repeat region. This dramatic acceleration of the evolutionary rate seems to be related with the mode of transmission. Mathematical models showed the correlation of these two molecular clocks with an endemic spread of HTLV-II in infected tribes compared with the epidemic spread in IDUs. We also noted a sharp increase in the population size of the virus among IDUs during the last decades probably caused by the worldwide increase in intravenous drug use.

Models of immune memory: On the role of cross-reactive stimulation, competition, and homeostasis in maintaining immune memory

There has been much debate on the contribution of processes such as the persistence of antigens, cross-reactive stimulation, homeostasis, competition between different lineages of lymphocytes, and the rate of cell turnover on the duration of immune memory and the maintenance of the immune repertoire. We use simple mathematical models to investigate the contributions of these various processes to the longevity of immune memory (defined as the rate of decline of the population of antigen-specific memory cells). The models we develop incorporate a large repertoire of immune cells, each lineage having distinct antigenic specificities, and describe the dynamics of the individual lineages and total population of cells. Our results suggest that, if homeostatic control regulates the total population of memory cells, then, for a wide range of parameters, immune memory will be long-lived in the absence of persistent antigen (T1/2 > 1 year). We also show that the longevity of memory in this situation will be insensitive to the relative rates of cross-reactive stimulation, the rate of turnover of immune cells, and the functional form of the term for the maintenance of homeostasis.

Functional Hierarchy of Simultaneously Expressed Adhesion Receptors: Integrin α2β1 but Not CD44 Mediates MV3 Melanoma Cell Migration and Matrix Reorganization within Three-dimensional Hyaluronan-containing Collagen MatricesV⃞

Haptokinetic cell migration across surfaces is mediated by adhesion receptors including β1 integrins and CD44 providing adhesion to extracellular matrix (ECM) ligands such as collagen and hyaluronan (HA), respectively. Little is known, however, about how such different receptor systems synergize for cell migration through three-dimensionally (3-D) interconnected ECM ligands. In highly motile human MV3 melanoma cells, both β1 integrins and CD44 are abundantly expressed, support migration across collagen and HA, respectively, and are deposited upon migration, whereas only β1 integrins but not CD44 redistribute to focal adhesions. In 3-D collagen lattices in the presence or absence of HA and cross-linking chondroitin sulfate, MV3 cell migration and associated functions such as polarization and matrix reorganization were blocked by anti-β1 and anti-α2 integrin mAbs, whereas mAbs blocking CD44, α3, α5, α6, or αv integrins showed no effect. With use of highly sensitive time-lapse videomicroscopy and computer-assisted cell tracking techniques, promigratory functions of CD44 were excluded. 1) Addition of HA did not increase the migratory cell population or its migration velocity, 2) blocking of the HA-binding Hermes-1 epitope did not affect migration, and 3) impaired migration after blocking or activation of β1 integrins was not restored via CD44. Because α2β1-mediated migration was neither synergized nor replaced by CD44–HA interactions, we conclude that the biophysical properties of 3-D multicomponent ECM impose more restricted molecular functions of adhesion receptors, thereby differing from haptokinetic migration across surfaces.

Polymer Models of Meiotic and Mitotic Chromosomes

Polymers tied together by constraints exhibit an internal pressure; this idea is used to analyze physical properties of the bottle-brush–like chromosomes of meiotic prophase that consist of polymer-like flexible chromatin loops, attached to a central axis. Using a minimal number of experimental parameters, semiquantitative predictions are made for the bending rigidity, radius, and axial tension of such brushes, and the repulsion acting between brushes whose bristles are forced to overlap. The retraction of lampbrush loops when the nascent transcripts are stripped away, the oval shape of diplotene bivalents between chiasmata, and the rigidity of pachytene chromosomes are all manifestations of chromatin pressure. This two-phase (chromatin plus buffer) picture that suffices for meiotic chromosomes has to be supplemented by a third constituent, a chromatin glue to understand mitotic chromosomes, and explain how condensation can drive the resolution of entanglements. This process resembles a thermal annealing in that a parameter (the affinity of the glue for chromatin and/or the affinity of the chromatin for buffer) has to be tuned to achieve optimal results. Mechanical measurements to characterize this protein–chromatin matrix are proposed. Finally, the propensity for even slightly chemically dissimilar polymers to phase separate (cluster like with like) can explain the apparent segregation of the chromatin into A+T- and G+C-rich regions revealed by chromosome banding.

Frequency of migrants and migratory activity are genetically correlated in a bird population: Evolutionary implications

Most migratory bird populations are composed of individuals that migrate and individuals that remain resident. While the role of ecological factors in maintaining this behavioral dimorphism has received much attention, the importance of genetic constraints on the evolution of avian migration has not yet been considered. Drawing on the recorded migratory activities of 775 blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) from a partially migratory population in southern France, we tested two alternative genetic models about the relationship between incidence and amount of migratory activity. The amount of migratory activity could be the continuous variable “underlying” the phenotypic expression of migratory urge, or, alternatively, the expression of both traits could be controlled by two separate genetic systems. The distributions of migratory activities in five different cohorts and the inheritance pattern derived from selective breeding experiments both indicate that incidence and amount of migratory activity are two aspects of one trait. Thus, all birds without measurable activity have activity levels at the low end of a continuous distribution, below the limit of expression or detection. The phenotypic dichotomy “migrant–nonmigrant” is caused by a threshold which may not be fixed but influenced both genetically and environmentally. This finding has profound implications for the evolution of migration: the transition from migratoriness to residency should not only be driven by selection favoring resident birds but also by selection for lower migratory activity. This potential for selection on two aspects, residency and migration distance, of the same trait may enable extremely rapid evolutionary changes to occur in migratory behavior.

Genetics and the population history of Europe

Analysis of genetic variation among modern individuals is providing insight into prehistoric events. Comparisons of levels and patterns of genetic diversity with the predictions of models based on archeological evidence suggest that the spread of early farmers from the Levant was probably the main episode in the European population history, but that both older and more recent processes have left recognizable traces in the current gene pool.

The evolution of RNA viruses: A population genetics view

RNA viruses are excellent experimental models for studying evolution under the theoretical framework of population genetics. For a proper justification of this thesis we have introduced some properties of RNA viruses that are relevant for studying evolution. On the other hand, population genetics is a reductionistic theory of evolution. It does not consider or make simplistic assumptions on the transformation laws within and between genotypic and phenotypic spaces. However, such laws are minimized in the case of RNA viruses because the phenotypic space maps onto the genotypic space in a much more linear way than on higher DNA-based organisms. Under experimental conditions, we have tested the role of deleterious and beneficial mutations in the degree of adaptation of vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a nonsegmented virus of negative strand. We also have studied how effective population size, initial genetic variability in populations, and environmental heterogeneity shapes the impact of mutations in the evolution of vesicular stomatitis virus. Finally, in an integrative attempt, we discuss pros and cons of the quasispecies theory compared with classic population genetics models for haploid organisms to explain the evolution of RNA viruses.

Sex ratio adjustment in relation to paternal attractiveness in a wild bird population.

When the relative fitness of sons and daughters differs, sex-allocation theory predicts that it would be adaptive for individuals to adjust their investment in different sexes of offspring. Sex ratio adjustment by females in response to the sexual attractiveness of their mate would be an example of this. In vertebrates the existence of this form of sex ratio adjustment is controversial and may be confounded with sex-biased mortality, particularly in sexually size-dimorphic species. Here we use PCR amplification of a conserved W-chromosome-linked gene to show that the sex ratio within broods of a natural population of sexually size-monomorphic collared flycatchers Ficedula albicollis is related to the size of their father's forehead patch, a heritable secondary sexual character implicated in female choice. Experimental manipulations of paternal investment, which influence the size of his character in future breeding attempts, result in corresponding changes in the sex ratio of offspring born to males in those breeding attempts. In contrast, manipulations of maternal investment have no effect on future sex ratios, and there is no relationship between variables predicting the reproductive value of the brood and nestling sex ratio. Analysis of recruitment of offspring reveals similar patterns of sex ratio bias. The results suggest that female collared flycatchers be able to adjust the sex ratio of eggs ovulated in response to the phenotype of their mate. This finding is most consistent with "genetic quality" models of sexual selection.

Failure of programmed cell death and differentiation as causes of tumors: some simple mathematical models.

Most models of tumorigenesis assume that the tumor grows by increased cell division. In these models, it is generally supposed that daughter cells behave as do their parents, and cell numbers have clear potential for exponential growth. We have constructed simple mathematical models of tumorigenesis through failure of programmed cell death (PCD) or differentiation. These models do not assume that descendant cells behave as their parents do. The models predict that exponential growth in cell numbers does sometimes occur, usually when stem cells fail to die or differentiate. At other times, exponential growth does not occur: instead, the number of cells in the population reaches a new, higher equilibrium. This behavior is predicted when fully differentiated cells fail to undergo PCD. When cells of intermediate differentiation fail to die or to differentiate further, the values of growth parameters determine whether growth is exponential or leads to a new equilibrium. The predictions of the model are sensitive to small differences in growth parameters. Failure of PCD and differentiation, leading to a new equilibrium number of cells, may explain many aspects of tumor behavior--for example, early premalignant lesions such as cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, the fact that some tumors very rarely become malignant, the observation of plateaux in the growth of some solid tumors, and, finally, long lag phases of growth until mutations arise that eventually result in exponential growth.