Lessons from the past: Evolutionary impacts of mass extinctions

Mass extinctions have played many evolutionary roles, involving differential survivorship or selectivity of taxa and traits, the disruption or preservation of evolutionary trends and ecosystem organization, and the promotion of taxonomic and morphological diversifications—often along unexpected trajectories—after the destruction or marginalization of once-dominant clades. The fossil record suggests that survivorship during mass extinctions is not strictly random, but it often fails to coincide with factors promoting survival during times of low extinction intensity. Although of very serious concern, present-day extinctions have not yet achieved the intensities seen in the Big Five mass extinctions of the geologic past, which each removed ≥50% of the subset of relatively abundant marine invertebrate genera. The best comparisons for predictive purposes therefore will involve factors such as differential extinction intensities among regions, clades, and functional groups, rules governing postextinction biotic interchanges and evolutionary dynamics, and analyses of the factors that cause taxa and evolutionary trends to continue unabated, to suffer setbacks but resume along the same trajectory, to survive only to fall into a marginal role or disappear (“dead clade walking”), or to undergo a burst of diversification. These issues need to be addressed in a spatially explicit framework, because the fossil record suggests regional differences in postextinction diversification dynamics and biotic interchanges. Postextinction diversifications lag far behind the initial taxonomic and morphological impoverishment and homogenization; they do not simply reoccupy vacated adaptive peaks, but explore opportunities as opened and constrained by intrinsic biotic factors and the ecological and evolutionary context of the radiation.

Lessons from the past: Biotic recoveries from mass extinctions

Although mass extinctions probably account for the disappearance of less than 5% of all extinct species, the evolutionary opportunities they have created have had a disproportionate effect on the history of life. Theoretical considerations and simulations have suggested that the empty niches created by a mass extinction should refill rapidly after extinction ameliorates. Under logistic models, this biotic rebound should be exponential, slowing as the environmental carrying capacity is approached. Empirical studies reveal a more complex dynamic, including positive feedback and an exponential growth phase during recoveries. Far from a model of refilling ecospace, mass extinctions appear to cause a collapse of ecospace, which must be rebuilt during recovery. Other generalities include the absence of a clear correlation between the magnitude of extinction and the pace of recovery or the resulting ecological and evolutionary disruption the presence of a survival interval, with few originations, immediately after an extinction and preceding the recovery phase, and the presence of many lineages that persist through an extinction event only to disappear during the subsequent recovery. Several recoveries include numerous missing lineages, groups that are found before the extinction, then latter in the recovery, but are missing during the initial survival–recovery phase. The limited biogeographic studies of recoveries suggest considerable variability between regions.

Mass extinctions and supernova explosions.

In a recent contribution to this journal Ellis and Schramm [Ellis, J. & Schramm, D. N. (1995) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 92, 235-238] claim that supernova explosions can cause massive biological extinctions as a result of strongly enhanced stratospheric NOx (NO + NO2) production by accompanying galactic cosmic rays. They suggested that these NOx productions which would last over several centuries and occur once every few hundred million years would result in ozone depletions of about 95%, leading to vastly increased levels of biologically damaging solar ultraviolet radiation. Our detailed model calculations show, however, substantially smaller ozone depletions ranging from at most 60% at high latitudes to below 20% at the equator.

Life in the end-Permian dead zone

The fossil record of land plants is an obvious source of information on the dynamics of mass extinctions in the geological past. In conjunction with the end-Permian ecological crisis, ≈250 million years ago, palynological data from East Greenland reveal some unanticipated patterns. We document the significant time lag between terrestrial ecosystem collapse and selective extinction among characteristic Late Permian plants. Furthermore, ecological crisis resulted in an initial increase in plant diversity, instead of a decrease. Paradoxically, these floral patterns correspond to a “dead zone” in the end-Permian faunal record, characterized by a paucity of marine invertebrate megafossils. The time-delayed, end-Permian plant extinctions resemble modeled “extinction debt” responses of multispecies metapopulations to progressive habitat destruction.

Evolution as a self-organized critical phenomenon.

We present a simple mathematical model of biological macroevolution. The model describes an ecology of adapting, interacting species. The environment of any given species is affected by other evolving species; hence, it is not constant in time. The ecology as a whole evolves to a "self-organized critical" state where periods of stasis alternate with avalanches of causally connected evolutionary changes. This characteristic behavior of natural history, known as "punctuated equilibrium," thus finds a theoretical explanation as a self-organized critical phenomenon. The evolutionary behavior of single species is intermittent. Also, large bursts of apparently simultaneous evolutionary activity require no external cause. Extinctions of all sizes, including mass extinctions, may be a simple consequence of ecosystem dynamics. Our results are compared with data from the fossil record.