Why fisheries collapse and what to do about it.

With the collapse of fisheries in many parts of the world causing widespread economic harm, attention is focused on a possible cause and remedy of fishery collapse. Economic theory for managing a renewable resource, such as a fishery, leads to an ecologically unstable equilibrium as difficult to maintain as balancing a marble on top of a dome. A fishery should be managed for ecological stability instead--in the analogy, as easy to maintain as keeping a marble near the base of a bowl. The goal of ecological stability is achieved if the target stock is above that producing maximum sustainable yield and harvested at less than the maximum sustainable yield. The cost of managing for ecological stability, termed "natural insurance," is low if the fishery is sufficiently productive. This cost is shown to pay for itself over the long term in a variable and uncertain environment. An ecologically stable target stock may be attained either with annually variable quotas following current practice or, preferably, through a market mechanism whereby fish are taxed at dockside if caught when the stock was below target and are untaxed otherwise. In this regulatory environment, the goal of maximizing short-term revenue coincides with the goal of ecological stability, thereby also maximizing long-term revenue. This new approach to fishery management is illustrated with the recently collapsed Newfoundland fishing industry. The Newfoundland cod fishery is expected to rebuild to an ecologically stable level in about 9 years and thereafter support an annual harvest of about 75% of the 1981-1990 average.