Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: Evolutionary predictions and ecological implications

Variability in population growth rate is thought to have negative consequences for organism fitness. Theory for matrix population models predicts that variance in population growth rate should be the sum of the variance in each matrix entry times the squared sensitivity term for that matrix entry. I analyzed the stage-specific demography of 30 field populations from 17 published studies for pattern between the variance of a demographic term and its contribution to population growth. There were no instances in which a matrix entry both was highly variable and had a large effect on population growth rate; instead, correlations between estimates of temporal variance in a term and contribution to population growth (sensitivity or elasticity) were overwhelmingly negative. In addition, survivorship or growth sensitivities or elasticities always exceeded those of fecundity, implying that the former two terms always contributed more to population growth rate. These results suggest that variable life history stages tend to contribute relatively little to population growth rates because natural selection may alter life histories to minimize stages with both high sensitivity and high variation.

Erythropoietin induces tumor regression and antitumor immune responses in murine myeloma models

Recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEpo) has been used successfully in the treatment of cancer-related anemia. Clinical observations with several patients with multiple-myeloma treated with rHuEpo has shown, in addition to the improved quality of life, a longer survival than expected, considering the poor prognostic features of these patients. Based on these observations, we evaluated the potential biological effects of rHuEpo on the course of tumor progression by using murine myeloma models (MOPC-315-IgAλ2 and 5T33 MM-IgG2b). Here we report that daily treatment of MOPC-315 tumor-bearing mice with rHuEpo for several weeks induced complete tumor regression in 30–60% of mice. All regressors that were rechallenged with tumor cells rejected tumor growth, and this resistance was tumor specific. The Epo-triggered therapeutic effect was shown to be attributed to a T cell-mediated mechanism. Serum Ig analysis indicated a reduction in MOPC-315 λ light chain in regressor mice. Intradermal inoculation of 5T33 MM tumor cells followed by Epo treatment induced tumor regression in 60% of mice. The common clinical manifestation of myeloma bone disease in patients with multiple-myeloma was established in these myeloma models. Epo administration to these tumor-bearing mice markedly prolonged their survival and reduced mortality. Therefore, erythropoietin seems to act as an antitumor therapeutic agent in addition to its red blood cell-stimulating activity.

Slip complexity in earthquake fault models.

We summarize studies of earthquake fault models that give rise to slip complexities like those in natural earthquakes. For models of smooth faults between elastically deformable continua, it is critical that the friction laws involve a characteristic distance for slip weakening or evolution of surface state. That results in a finite nucleation size, or coherent slip patch size, h*. Models of smooth faults, using numerical cell size properly small compared to h*, show periodic response or complex and apparently chaotic histories of large events but have not been found to show small event complexity like the self-similar (power law) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics. This conclusion is supported in the present paper by fully inertial elastodynamic modeling of earthquake sequences. In contrast, some models of locally heterogeneous faults with quasi-independent fault segments, represented approximately by simulations with cell size larger than h* so that the model becomes "inherently discrete," do show small event complexity of the Gutenberg-Richter type. Models based on classical friction laws without a weakening length scale or for which the numerical procedure imposes an abrupt strength drop at the onset of slip have h* = 0 and hence always fall into the inherently discrete class. We suggest that the small-event complexity that some such models show will not survive regularization of the constitutive description, by inclusion of an appropriate length scale leading to a finite h*, and a corresponding reduction of numerical grid size.