Estimating the probability of initiated cell death before tumor induction

The effects of cell toxicity are known to be inherent in carcinogenesis induced by radiation or chemical carcinogens. The event of cell death precludes tumor induction from occurring. A long standing problem is to estimate the proportion of initiated cells that die before tumor induction. No experimental techniques are currently available for directly gauging the rate of cell death over extended periods of time. The obstacle can be surmounted by newly developed theoretical methods of carcinogenesis modeling. In this paper, we apply such methods to published data on multiple lung tumors in mice receiving different schedules of urethane. Bioassays of this type play an important role in testing environmental chemicals for carcinogenic activity. Our estimates for urethane-induced carcinogenesis show that, unexpectedly, many initiated cells die early in the course of tumor promotion. We present numerical estimates for the probability of initiated cell death for different schedules (and doses) of urethane administration.

Estimating the probability for a protein to have a new fold: A statistical computational model

Structural genomics aims to solve a large number of protein structures that represent the protein space. Currently an exhaustive solution for all structures seems prohibitively expensive, so the challenge is to define a relatively small set of proteins with new, currently unknown folds. This paper presents a method that assigns each protein with a probability of having an unsolved fold. The method makes extensive use of protomap, a sequence-based classification, and scop, a structure-based classification. According to protomap, the protein space encodes the relationship among proteins as a graph whose vertices correspond to 13,354 clusters of proteins. A representative fold for a cluster with at least one solved protein is determined after superposition of all scop (release 1.37) folds onto protomap clusters. Distances within the protomap graph are computed from each representative fold to the neighboring folds. The distribution of these distances is used to create a statistical model for distances among those folds that are already known and those that have yet to be discovered. The distribution of distances for solved/unsolved proteins is significantly different. This difference makes it possible to use Bayes' rule to derive a statistical estimate that any protein has a yet undetermined fold. Proteins that score the highest probability to represent a new fold constitute the target list for structural determination. Our predicted probabilities for unsolved proteins correlate very well with the proportion of new folds among recently solved structures (new scop 1.39 records) that are disjoint from our original training set.

Inverse radiation dose-rate effects on somatic and germ-line mutations and DNA damage rates

The mutagenic effect of low linear energy transfer ionizing radiation is reduced for a given dose as the dose rate (DR) is reduced to a low level, a phenomenon known as the direct DR effect. Our reanalysis of published data shows that for both somatic and germ-line mutations there is an opposite, inverse DR effect, with reduction from low to very low DR, the overall dependence of induced mutations being parabolically related to DR, with a minimum in the range of 0.1 to 1.0 cGy/min (rule 1). This general pattern can be attributed to an optimal induction of error-free DNA repair in a DR region of minimal mutability (MMDR region). The diminished activation of repair at very low DRs may reflect a low ratio of induced (“signal”) to spontaneous background DNA damage (“noise”). Because two common DNA lesions, 8-oxoguanine and thymine glycol, were already known to activate repair in irradiated mammalian cells, we estimated how their rates of production are altered upon radiation exposure in the MMDR region. For these and other abundant lesions (abasic sites and single-strand breaks), the DNA damage rate increment in the MMDR region is in the range of 10% to 100% (rule 2). These estimates suggest a genetically programmed optimatization of response to radiation in the MMDR region.

Generalized flows, intrinsic stochasticity, and turbulent transport

The study of passive scalar transport in a turbulent velocity field leads naturally to the notion of generalized flows, which are families of probability distributions on the space of solutions to the associated ordinary differential equations which no longer satisfy the uniqueness theorem for ordinary differential equations. Two most natural regularizations of this problem, namely the regularization via adding small molecular diffusion and the regularization via smoothing out the velocity field, are considered. White-in-time random velocity fields are used as an example to examine the variety of phenomena that take place when the velocity field is not spatially regular. Three different regimes, characterized by their degrees of compressibility, are isolated in the parameter space. In the regime of intermediate compressibility, the two different regularizations give rise to two different scaling behaviors for the structure functions of the passive scalar. Physically, this means that the scaling depends on Prandtl number. In the other two regimes, the two different regularizations give rise to the same generalized flows even though the sense of convergence can be very different. The “one force, one solution” principle is established for the scalar field in the weakly compressible regime, and for the difference of the scalar in the strongly compressible regime, which is the regime of inverse cascade. Existence and uniqueness of an invariant measure are also proved in these regimes when the transport equation is suitably forced. Finally incomplete self similarity in the sense of Barenblatt and Chorin is established.

A conditional probability analysis of cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gating indicates that ATP has multiple effects during the gating cycle

ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters bind and hydrolyze ATP. In the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator Cl− channel, this interaction with ATP generates a gating cycle between a closed (C) and two open (O1 and O2) conformations. To understand better how ATP controls channel activity, we examined gating transitions from the C to the O1 and O2 states and from these open states to the C conformation. We made three main observations. First, we found that the channel can open into either the O1 or O2 state, that the frequency of transitions to both states was increased by ATP concentration, and that ATP increased the relative proportion of openings into O1 vs. O2. These results indicate that ATP can interact with the closed state to open the channel in at least two ways, which may involve binding to nucleotide-binding domains (NBDs) NBD1 and NBD2. Second, ATP prolonged the burst duration and altered the way in which the channel closed. These data suggest that ATP also interacts with the open channel. Third, the channel showed runs of specific types of open–closed transitions. This finding suggests a mechanism with more than one cycle of gating transitions. These data suggest models to explain how ATP influences conformational transitions in cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator and perhaps other ABC transporters.

Inverse agonism of histamine H2 antagonist accounts for upregulation of spontaneously active histamine H2 receptors.

Histamine H2 receptors transfected in Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells are time- and dose-dependently upregulated upon exposure to the H2 antagonists cimetidine and ranitidine. This effect appears to be H2 receptor-mediated as no change in receptor density was observed after H1 or H3 antagonist treatment or after incubation with the structural analogue of cimetidine, VUF 8299, which has no H2 antagonistic effects. By using transfected CHO cells expressing different densities of wild-type H2 receptors or an uncoupled H2Leu124Ala receptor, the histamine H2 receptor was found to display considerable agonist-independent H2 receptor activity. Cimetidine and ranitidine, which both induce H2 receptor upregulation, actually functioned as inverse agonists in those cell lines displaying spontaneous agonist-independent H2 receptor activity. Burimamide, on the other hand, was shown to act as a neutral antagonist and did as expected not induce H2 receptor upregulation after long-term exposure. The displayed inverse agonism of H2 antagonists appears to be a mechanistic basis for the observed H2 antagonist-induced H2 receptor upregulation in transfected CHO cells. These observations shed new light on the pharmacological classification of the H2 antagonists and may offer a plausible explanation for the observed development of tolerance after prolonged clinical use.

Kinetics of self-assembling microtubules: an "inverse problem" in biochemistry.

Experimental time series for a nonequilibrium reaction may in some cases contain sufficient data to determine a unique kinetic model for the reaction by a systematic mathematical analysis. As an example, a kinetic model for the self-assembly of microtubules is derived here from turbidity time series for solutions in which microtubules assemble. The model may be seen as a generalization of Oosawa's classical nucleation-polymerization model. It reproduces the experimental data with a four-stage nucleation process and a critical nucleus of 15 monomers.

Calculating the probability of multitaxon evolutionary trees: bootstrappers Gambit.

The reconstruction of multitaxon trees from molecular sequences is confounded by the variety of algorithms and criteria used to evaluate trees, making it difficult to compare the results of different analyses. A global method of multitaxon phylogenetic reconstruction described here, Bootstrappers Gambit, can be used with any four-taxon algorithm, including distance, maximum likelihood, and parsimony methods. It incorporates a Bayesian-Jeffreys'-bootstrap analysis to provide a uniform probability-based criterion for comparing the results from diverse algorithms. To examine the usefulness of the method, the origin of the eukaryotes has been investigated by the analysis of ribosomal small subunit RNA sequences. Three common algorithms (paralinear distances, Jukes-Cantor distances, and Kimura distances) support the eocyte topology, whereas one (maximum parsimony) supports the archaebacterial topology, suggesting that the eocyte prokaryotes are the closest prokaryotic relatives of the eukaryotes.

Decreased atherosclerosis in mice deficient in both macrophage colony-stimulating factor (op) and apolipoprotein E.

To develop a murine model system to test the role of monocyte-derived macrophage in atherosclerosis, the osteopetrotic (op) mutation in the macrophage colony-stimulating factor gene was bred onto the apolipoprotein E (apoE)-deficient background. The doubly mutant (op/apoE-deficient) mice fed a low-fat chow diet had significantly smaller proximal aortic lesions at an earlier stage of progression than their apoE-deficient control littermates. These lesions in the doubly mutant mice were composed of macrophage foam cells. The op/apoE-deficient mice also had decreased body weights, decreased blood monocyte differentials, and increased mean cholesterol levels of approximately 1300 mg/dl. Statistical analysis determined that atherosclerosis lesion area was significantly affected by the op genotype and gender. The confounding variables of body weight, plasma cholesterol, and monocyte differential, which were all affected by op genotype, had no significant additional effect on lesion area once they were adjusted for the effects of op genotype and gender. Unexpectedly, there was a significant inverse correlation between plasma cholesterol and lesion area, implying that each may be the result of a common effect of macrophage colony-stimulating factor levels. The data support the hypothesis that macrophage colony-stimulating factor and its effects on macrophage development and function play a key role in atherogenesis.

On the existence and implications of an inverse folding code in proteins.

The existence of a code relating the set of possible sequences at a given position in a protein backbone to the local structure at that location is investigated. It is shown that only 73% of 4-C alpha structure fragments in a sample of 114 protein structures exhibit a preference for a particular set of sequences. The remaining structures can accommodate essentially any sequence. The structures that encode specific sequence distributions include the classical "secondary" structures, with the notable exception of planar (beta) bends. It is suggested that this has implications as to the mechanism of folding in proteins with extensive sheet/barrel structure. The possible role of structures that do not encode specific sequences as mutation hot spots is noted.

Enhancers increase the probability but not the level of gene expression.

We have studied enhancer function in transient and stable expression assays in mammalian cells by using systems that distinguish expressing from nonexpressing cells. When expression is studied in this way, enhancers are found to increase the probability of a construct being active but not the level of expression per template. In stably integrated constructs, large differences in expression level are observed but these are not related to the presence of an enhancer. Together with earlier studies, these results suggest that enhancers act to affect a binary (on/off) switch in transcriptional activity. Although this idea challenges the widely accepted model of enhancer activity, it is consistent with much, if not all, experimental evidence on this subject. We hypothesize that enhancers act to increase the probability of forming a stably active template. When randomly integrated into the genome, enhancers may affect a metastable state of repression/activity, permitting expression in regions that would not permit activity of an isolated promoter.