Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

Association of a transglutaminase-related antigen with intermediate filaments.

A mouse monoclonal antibody, G92.1.2, raised against guinea pig liver transglutaminase (TGase) recognizes an antigen present in primary mouse dermal fibroblasts. A filamentous pattern, bearing remarkable similarity to the vimentin intermediate filament (IF) network, is seen when these cells are fixed and processed for indirect immunofluorescence with the antibody. Double-label immunofluorescence reveals that the antigen reacting with the antibody colocalizes precisely with vimentin IF and that this colocalization is retained after the treatment of fibroblasts with colchicine, which induces a redistribution of the majority of IFs into perinuclear aggregates. These morphological observations are further supported by the finding that the protein reacting with G92.1.2 is retained in IF-enriched cytoskeletal preparations made by using nonionic detergent-containing high ionic strength solutions. Western blots of the IF fraction show that G92.1.2 recognizes a major band of approximately 280 kDa and does not cross react with vimentin. Furthermore, when the antibody is microinjected into live dermal fibroblasts, it causes a collapse of the vimentin IF network in the majority of injected cells. The results suggest that a form of TGase, or a TGase-related antigen, is closely associated with the vimentin IF network of primary cultures of mouse dermal fibroblasts.