Global climate change

Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by “band jumps” between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities.

Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation

In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects—particularly those caused by mortality—largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and piñon–juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (<5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to a severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change.

An evaluation of the performance of cDNA microarrays for detecting changes in global mRNA expression

The cDNA microarray is one technological approach that has the potential to accurately measure changes in global mRNA expression levels. We report an assessment of an optimized cDNA microarray platform to generate accurate, precise and reliable data consistent with the objective of using microarrays as an acquisition platform to populate gene expression databases. The study design consisted of two independent evaluations with 70 arrays from two different manufactured lots and used three human tissue sources as samples: placenta, brain and heart. Overall signal response was linear over three orders of magnitude and the sensitivity for any element was estimated to be 2 pg mRNA. The calculated coefficient of variation for differential expression for all non-differentiated elements was 12–14% across the entire signal range and did not vary with array batch or tissue source. The minimum detectable fold change for differential expression was 1.4. Accuracy, in terms of bias (observed minus expected differential expression ratio), was less than 1 part in 10 000 for all non-differentiated elements. The results presented in this report demonstrate the reproducible performance of the cDNA microarray technology platform and the methods provide a useful framework for evaluating other technologies that monitor changes in global mRNA expression.

Changes in global gene expression patterns during development and maturation of the rat kidney

We set out to define patterns of gene expression during kidney organogenesis by using high-density DNA array technology. Expression analysis of 8,740 rat genes revealed five discrete patterns or groups of gene expression during nephrogenesis. Group 1 consisted of genes with very high expression in the early embryonic kidney, many with roles in protein translation and DNA replication. Group 2 consisted of genes that peaked in midembryogenesis and contained many transcripts specifying proteins of the extracellular matrix. Many additional transcripts allied with groups 1 and 2 had known or proposed roles in kidney development and included LIM1, POD1, GFRA1, WT1, BCL2, Homeobox protein A11, timeless, pleiotrophin, HGF, HNF3, BMP4, TGF-α, TGF-β2, IGF-II, met, FGF7, BMP4, and ganglioside-GD3. Group 3 consisted of transcripts that peaked in the neonatal period and contained a number of retrotransposon RNAs. Group 4 contained genes that steadily increased in relative expression levels throughout development, including many genes involved in energy metabolism and transport. Group 5 consisted of genes with relatively low levels of expression throughout embryogenesis but with markedly higher levels in the adult kidney; this group included a heterogeneous mix of transporters, detoxification enzymes, and oxidative stress genes. The data suggest that the embryonic kidney is committed to cellular proliferation and morphogenesis early on, followed sequentially by extracellular matrix deposition and acquisition of markers of terminal differentiation. The neonatal burst of retrotransposon mRNA was unexpected and may play a role in a stress response associated with birth. Custom analytical tools were developed including “The Equalizer” and “eBlot,” which contain improved methods for data normalization, significance testing, and data mining.

Aurintricarboxylic acid prevents GLUR2 mRNA down-regulation and delayed neurodegeneration in hippocampal CA1 neurons of gerbil after global ischemia

Aurintricarboxylic acid (ATA), an inhibitor of endonuclease activity and other protein–nucleic acid interactions, blocks apoptosis in several cell types and prevents delayed death of hippocampal pyramidal CA1 neurons induced by transient global ischemia. Global ischemia in rats and gerbils induces down-regulation of GluR2 mRNA and increased α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA)-induced Ca2+ influx in CA1 before neurodegeneration. This result and neuroprotection by antagonists of AMPA receptors suggests that formation of AMPA receptors lacking GluR2, and therefore Ca2+ permeable, leads to excessive Ca2+ influx in response to endogenous glutamate; the resulting delayed neuronal death in CA1 exhibits many characteristics of apoptosis. In this study, we examined the effects of ATA on expression of mRNAs encoding glutamate receptor subunits in gerbil hippocampus after global ischemia. Administration of ATA by injection into the right cerebral ventricle 1 h before (but not 6 h after) bilateral carotid occlusion prevented the ischemia-induced decrease in GluR2 mRNA expression and the delayed neurodegeneration. These findings suggest that ATA is neuroprotective in ischemia by blocking the transcriptional changes leading to down-regulation of GluR2, rather than by simply blocking endonucleases, which presumably act later after Ca2+ influx initiates apoptosis. Maintaining formation of Ca2+ impermeable, GluR2 containing AMPA receptors could prevent delayed death of CA1 neurons after transient global ischemia, and block of GluR2 down-regulation may provide a further strategy for neuroprotection.

Neural systems underlying learning and representation of global motion

We demonstrate performance-related changes in cortical and cerebellar activity. The largest learning-dependent changes were observed in the anterior lateral cerebellum, where the extent and intensity of activation correlated inversely with psychophysical performance. After learning had occurred (a few minutes), the cerebellar activation almost disappeared; however, it was restored when the subjects were presented with a novel, untrained direction of motion for which psychophysical performance also reverted to chance level. Similar reductions in the extent and intensity of brain activations in relation to learning occurred in the superior colliculus, anterior cingulate, and parts of the extrastriate cortex. The motion direction-sensitive middle temporal visual complex was a notable exception, where there was an expansion of the cortical territory activated by the trained stimulus. Together, these results indicate that the learning and representation of visual motion discrimination are mediated by different, but probably interacting, neuronal subsystems.

Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?

The atmosphere displays modes of variability whose structures exhibit a strong longitudinally symmetric (annular) component that extends from the surface to the stratosphere in middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the past 30 years, these modes have exhibited trends that seem larger than their natural background variability, and may be related to human influences on stratospheric ozone and/or atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The pattern of climate trends during the past few decades is marked by rapid cooling and ozone depletion in the polar lower stratosphere of both hemispheres, coupled with an increasing strength of the wintertime westerly polar vortex and a poleward shift of the westerly wind belt at the earth's surface. Annular modes of variability are fundamentally a result of internal dynamical feedbacks within the climate system, and as such can show a large response to rather modest external forcing. The dynamics and thermodynamics of these modes are such that strong synergistic interactions between stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse warming are possible. These interactions may be responsible for the pronounced changes in tropospheric and stratospheric climate observed during the past few decades. If these trends continue, they could have important implications for the climate of the 21st century.

From tropics to tundra: Global convergence in plant functioning

Despite striking differences in climate, soils, and evolutionary history among diverse biomes ranging from tropical and temperate forests to alpine tundra and desert, we found similar interspecific relationships among leaf structure and function and plant growth in all biomes. Our results thus demonstrate convergent evolution and global generality in plant functioning, despite the enormous diversity of plant species and biomes. For 280 plant species from two global data sets, we found that potential carbon gain (photosynthesis) and carbon loss (respiration) increase in similar proportion with decreasing leaf life-span, increasing leaf nitrogen concentration, and increasing leaf surface area-to-mass ratio. Productivity of individual plants and of leaves in vegetation canopies also changes in constant proportion to leaf life-span and surface area-to-mass ratio. These global plant functional relationships have significant implications for global scale modeling of vegetation–atmosphere CO2 exchange.

Remodeling of Yeast Genome Expression in Response to Environmental Changes

We used genome-wide expression analysis to explore how gene expression in Saccharomyces cerevisiae is remodeled in response to various changes in extracellular environment, including changes in temperature, oxidation, nutrients, pH, and osmolarity. The results demonstrate that more than half of the genome is involved in various responses to environmental change and identify the global set of genes induced and repressed by each condition. These data implicate a substantial number of previously uncharacterized genes in these responses and reveal a signature common to environmental responses that involves ∼10% of yeast genes. The results of expression analysis with MSN2/MSN4 mutants support the model that the Msn2/Msn4 activators induce the common response to environmental change. These results provide a global description of the transcriptional response to environmental change and extend our understanding of the role of activators in effecting this response.

Global biodiversity and the ancient carbon cycle

Paleontological data for the diversity of marine animals and land plants are shown to correlate significantly with a concurrent measure of stable carbon isotope fractionation for approximately the last 400 million years. The correlations can be deduced from the assumption that increasing plant diversity led to increasing chemical weathering of rocks and therefore an increasing flux of carbon from the atmosphere to rocks, and nutrients from the continents to the oceans. The CO2 concentration dependence of photosynthetic carbon isotope fractionation then indicates that the diversification of land plants led to decreasing CO2 levels, while the diversification of marine animals derived from increasing nutrient availability. Under the explicit assumption that global biodiversity grows with global biomass, the conservation of carbon shows that the long-term fluctuations of CO2 levels were dominated by complementary changes in the biological and fluid reservoirs of carbon, while the much larger geological reservoir remained relatively constant in size. As a consequence, the paleontological record of biodiversity provides an indirect estimate of the fluctuations of ancient CO2 levels.

Potential responses of soil organic carbon to global environmental change

Recent improvements in our understanding of the dynamics of soil carbon have shown that 20–40% of the approximately 1,500 Pg of C stored as organic matter in the upper meter of soils has turnover times of centuries or less. This fast-cycling organic matter is largely comprised of undecomposed plant material and hydrolyzable components associated with mineral surfaces. Turnover times of fast-cycling carbon vary with climate and vegetation, and range from <20 years at low latitudes to >60 years at high latitudes. The amount and turnover time of C in passive soil carbon pools (organic matter strongly stabilized on mineral surfaces with turnover times of millennia and longer) depend on factors like soil maturity and mineralogy, which, in turn, reflect long-term climate conditions. Transient sources or sinks in terrestrial carbon pools result from the time lag between photosynthetic uptake of CO2 by plants and the subsequent return of C to the atmosphere through plant, heterotrophic, and microbial respiration. Differential responses of primary production and respiration to climate change or ecosystem fertilization have the potential to cause significant interrannual to decadal imbalances in terrestrial C storage and release. Rates of carbon storage and release in recently disturbed ecosystems can be much larger than rates in more mature ecosystems. Changes in disturbance frequency and regime resulting from future climate change may be more important than equilibrium responses in determining the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems.

The observed global warming record: What does it tell us?

Global, near-surface temperature data sets and their derivations are discussed, and differences between the Jones and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change data sets are explained. Global-mean temperature changes are then interpreted in terms of anthropogenic forcing influences and natural variability. The inclusion of aerosol forcing improves the fit between modeled and observed changes but does not improve the agreement between the implied climate sensitivity value and the standard model-based range of 1.5–4.5°C equilibrium warming for a CO2 doubling. The implied sensitivity goes from below the model-based range of estimates to substantially above this range. The addition of a solar forcing effect further improves the fit and brings the best-fit sensitivity into the middle of the model-based range. Consistency is further improved when internally generated changes are considered. This consistency, however, hides many uncertainties that surround observed data/model comparisons. These uncertainties make it impossible currently to use observed global-scale temperature changes to narrow the uncertainty range in the climate sensitivity below that estimated directly from climate models.

Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer.

Dependence of global temperatures on atmospheric CO2 and solar irradiance

Changes in global average temperatures and of the seasonal cycle are strongly coupled to the concentration of atmospheric CO2. I estimate transfer functions from changes in atmospheric CO2 and from changes in solar irradiance to hemispheric temperatures that have been corrected for the effects of precession. They show that changes from CO2 over the last century are about three times larger than those from changes in solar irradiance. The increase in global average temperature during the last century is at least 20 times the SD of the residual temperature series left when the effects of CO2 and changes in solar irradiance are subtracted.

Global environmental impacts of agricultural expansion: The need for sustainable and efficient practices

The recent intensification of agriculture, and the prospects of future intensification, will have major detrimental impacts on the nonagricultural terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the world. The doubling of agricultural food production during the past 35 years was associated with a 6.87-fold increase in nitrogen fertilization, a 3.48-fold increase in phosphorus fertilization, a 1.68-fold increase in the amount of irrigated cropland, and a 1.1-fold increase in land in cultivation. Based on a simple linear extension of past trends, the anticipated next doubling of global food production would be associated with approximately 3-fold increases in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization rates, a doubling of the irrigated land area, and an 18% increase in cropland. These projected changes would have dramatic impacts on the diversity, composition, and functioning of the remaining natural ecosystems of the world, and on their ability to provide society with a variety of essential ecosystem services. The largest impacts would be on freshwater and marine ecosystems, which would be greatly eutrophied by high rates of nitrogen and phosphorus release from agricultural fields. Aquatic nutrient eutrophication can lead to loss of biodiversity, outbreaks of nuisance species, shifts in the structure of food chains, and impairment of fisheries. Because of aerial redistribution of various forms of nitrogen, agricultural intensification also would eutrophy many natural terrestrial ecosystems and contribute to atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases. These detrimental environmental impacts of agriculture can be minimized only if there is much more efficient use and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus in agroecosystems.