The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.

Species specificity in the cell-free conversion of prion protein to protease-resistant forms: a model for the scrapie species barrier.

Scrapie is a transmissible neurodegenerative disease that appears to result from an accumulation in the brain of an abnormal protease-resistant isoform of prion protein (PrP) called PrPsc. Conversion of the normal, protease-sensitive form of PrP (PrPc) to protease-resistant forms like PrPsc has been demonstrated in a cell-free reaction composed largely of hamster PrPc and PrPsc. We now report studies of the species specificity of this cell-free reaction using mouse, hamster, and chimeric PrP molecules. Combinations of hamster PrPc with hamster PrPsc and mouse PrPc with mouse PrPsc resulted in the conversion of PrPc to protease-resistant forms. Protease-resistant PrP species were also generated in the nonhomologous reaction of hamster PrPc with mouse PrPsc, but little conversion was observed in the reciprocal reaction. Glycosylation of the PrPc precursors was not required for species specificity in the conversion reaction. The relative conversion efficiencies correlated with the relative transmissibilities of these strains of scrapie between mice and hamsters. Conversion experiments performed with chimeric mouse/hamster PrPc precursors indicated that differences between PrPc and PrPsc at residues 139, 155, and 170 affected the conversion efficiency and the size of the resultant protease-resistant PrP species. We conclude that there is species specificity in the cell-free interactions that lead to the conversion of PrPc to protease-resistant forms. This specificity may be the molecular basis for the barriers to interspecies transmission of scrapie and other transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in vivo.