Late Quaternary extinction of a tree species in eastern North America

Widespread species- and genus-level extinctions of mammals in North America and Europe occurred during the last deglaciation [16,000–9,000 yr B.P. (by 14C)], a period of rapid and often abrupt climatic and vegetational change. These extinctions are variously ascribed to environmental change and overkill by human hunters. By contrast, plant extinctions since the Middle Pleistocene are undocumented, suggesting that plant species have been able to respond to environmental changes of the past several glacial/interglacial cycles by migration. We provide evidence from morphological studies of fossil cones and anatomical studies of fossil needles that a now-extinct species of spruce (Picea critchfieldii sp. nov.) was widespread in eastern North America during the Last Glacial Maximum. P. critchfieldii was dominant in vegetation of the Lower Mississippi Valley, and extended at least as far east as western Georgia. P. critchfieldii disappeared during the last deglaciation, and its extinction is not directly attributable to human activities. Similarly widespread plant species may be at risk of extinction in the face of future climate change.

Recurrent invasion and extinction of a selfish gene

Homing endonuclease genes show super-Mendelian inheritance, which allows them to spread in populations even when they are of no benefit to the host organism. To test the idea that regular horizontal transmission is necessary for the long-term persistence of these genes, we surveyed 20 species of yeasts for the ω-homing endonuclease gene and associated group I intron. The status of ω could be categorized into three states (functional, nonfunctional, or absent), and status was not clustered on the host phylogeny. Moreover, the phylogeny of ω differed significantly from that of the host, strong evidence of horizontal transmission. Further analyses indicate that horizontal transmission is more common than transposition, and that it occurs preferentially between closely related species. Parsimony analysis and coalescent theory suggest that there have been 15 horizontal transmission events in the ancestry of our yeast species, through simulations indicate that this value is probably an underestimate. Overall, the data support a cyclical model of invasion, degeneration, and loss, followed by reinvasion, and each of these transitions is estimated to occur about once every 2 million years. The data are thus consistent with the idea that frequent horizontal transmission is necessary for the long-term persistence of homing endonuclease genes, and further, that this requirement limits these genes to organisms with easily accessible germ lines. The data also show that mitochondrial DNA sequences are transferred intact between yeast species; if other genes do not show such high levels of horizontal transmission, it would be due to lack of selection, rather than lack of opportunity.

Estimating the probability of initiated cell death before tumor induction

The effects of cell toxicity are known to be inherent in carcinogenesis induced by radiation or chemical carcinogens. The event of cell death precludes tumor induction from occurring. A long standing problem is to estimate the proportion of initiated cells that die before tumor induction. No experimental techniques are currently available for directly gauging the rate of cell death over extended periods of time. The obstacle can be surmounted by newly developed theoretical methods of carcinogenesis modeling. In this paper, we apply such methods to published data on multiple lung tumors in mice receiving different schedules of urethane. Bioassays of this type play an important role in testing environmental chemicals for carcinogenic activity. Our estimates for urethane-induced carcinogenesis show that, unexpectedly, many initiated cells die early in the course of tumor promotion. We present numerical estimates for the probability of initiated cell death for different schedules (and doses) of urethane administration.

Estimating the probability for a protein to have a new fold: A statistical computational model

Structural genomics aims to solve a large number of protein structures that represent the protein space. Currently an exhaustive solution for all structures seems prohibitively expensive, so the challenge is to define a relatively small set of proteins with new, currently unknown folds. This paper presents a method that assigns each protein with a probability of having an unsolved fold. The method makes extensive use of protomap, a sequence-based classification, and scop, a structure-based classification. According to protomap, the protein space encodes the relationship among proteins as a graph whose vertices correspond to 13,354 clusters of proteins. A representative fold for a cluster with at least one solved protein is determined after superposition of all scop (release 1.37) folds onto protomap clusters. Distances within the protomap graph are computed from each representative fold to the neighboring folds. The distribution of these distances is used to create a statistical model for distances among those folds that are already known and those that have yet to be discovered. The distribution of distances for solved/unsolved proteins is significantly different. This difference makes it possible to use Bayes' rule to derive a statistical estimate that any protein has a yet undetermined fold. Proteins that score the highest probability to represent a new fold constitute the target list for structural determination. Our predicted probabilities for unsolved proteins correlate very well with the proportion of new folds among recently solved structures (new scop 1.39 records) that are disjoint from our original training set.

Preselection of retrovirally transduced bone marrow avoids subsequent stem cell gene silencing and age-dependent extinction of expression of human β-globin in engrafted mice

Transcriptional silencing of genes transferred into hematopoietic stem cells poses one of the most significant challenges to the success of gene therapy. If the transferred gene is not completely silenced, a progressive decline in gene expression as the mice age often is encountered. These phenomena were observed to various degrees in mouse transplant experiments using retroviral vectors containing a human β-globin gene, even when cis-linked to locus control region derivatives. Here, we have investigated whether ex vivo preselection of retrovirally transduced stem cells on the basis of expression of the green fluorescent protein driven by the CpG island phosphoglycerate kinase promoter can ensure subsequent long-term expression of a cis-linked β-globin gene in the erythroid lineage of transplanted mice. We observed that 100% of mice (n = 7) engrafted with preselected cells concurrently expressed human β-globin and the green fluorescent protein in 20–95% of their RBC for up to 9.5 mo posttransplantation, the longest time point assessed. This expression pattern was successfully transferred to secondary transplant recipients. In the presence of β-locus control region hypersensitive site 2 alone, human β-globin mRNA expression levels ranged from 0.15% to 20% with human β-globin chains detected by HPLC. Neither the proportion of positive blood cells nor the average expression levels declined with time in transplanted recipients. Although suboptimal expression levels and heterocellular position effects persisted, in vivo stem cell gene silencing and age-dependent extinction of expression were avoided. These findings support the further investigation of this type of vector for the gene therapy of human hemoglobinopathies.

Monophyly and extensive extinction of advanced eusocial bees: Insights from an unexpected Eocene diversity

Advanced eusociality sometimes is given credit for the ecological success of termites, ants, some wasps, and some bees. Comprehensive study of bees fossilized in Baltic amber has revealed an unsuspected middle Eocene (ca. 45 million years ago) diversity of eusocial bee lineages. Advanced eusociality arose once in the bees with significant post-Eocene losses in diversity, leaving today only two advanced eusocial tribes comprising less than 2% of the total bee diversity, a trend analogous to that of hominid evolution. This pattern of changing diversity contradicts notions concerning the role of eusociality for evolutionary success in insects.

Metapopulation extinction caused by mutation accumulation

Theory suggests that the risk of extinction by mutation accumulation can be comparable to that by environmental stochasticity for an isolated population smaller than a few thousand individuals. Here we show that metapopulation structure, habitat loss or fragmentation, and environmental stochasticity can be expected to greatly accelerate the accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations, lowering the genetic effective size to such a degree that even large metapopulations may be at risk of extinction. Because of mutation accumulation, viable metapopulations may need to be far larger and better connected than would be required under just stochastic demography.

A conditional probability analysis of cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gating indicates that ATP has multiple effects during the gating cycle

ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters bind and hydrolyze ATP. In the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator Cl− channel, this interaction with ATP generates a gating cycle between a closed (C) and two open (O1 and O2) conformations. To understand better how ATP controls channel activity, we examined gating transitions from the C to the O1 and O2 states and from these open states to the C conformation. We made three main observations. First, we found that the channel can open into either the O1 or O2 state, that the frequency of transitions to both states was increased by ATP concentration, and that ATP increased the relative proportion of openings into O1 vs. O2. These results indicate that ATP can interact with the closed state to open the channel in at least two ways, which may involve binding to nucleotide-binding domains (NBDs) NBD1 and NBD2. Second, ATP prolonged the burst duration and altered the way in which the channel closed. These data suggest that ATP also interacts with the open channel. Third, the channel showed runs of specific types of open–closed transitions. This finding suggests a mechanism with more than one cycle of gating transitions. These data suggest models to explain how ATP influences conformational transitions in cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator and perhaps other ABC transporters.

The current biodiversity extinction event: Scenarios for mitigation and recovery

The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota.

Unusual dynamics of extinction in a simple ecological model.

Studies on natural populations and harvesting biological resources have led to the view, commonly held, that (i) populations exhibiting chaotic oscillations run a high risk of extinction; and (ii) a decrease in emigration/exploitation may reduce the risk of extinction. Here we describe a simple ecological model with emigration/depletion that shows behavior in contrast to this. This model displays unusual dynamics of extinction and survival, where populations growing beyond a critical rate can persist within a band of high depletion rates, whereas extinction occurs for lower depletion rates. Though prior to extinction at lower depletion rates the population exhibits chaotic dynamics with large amplitudes of variation and very low minima, at higher depletion rates the population persists at chaos but with reduced variation and increased minima. For still higher values, within the band of persistence, the dynamics show period reversal leading to stability. These results illustrate that chaos does not necessarily lead to population extinction. In addition, the persistence of populations at high depletion rates has important implications in the considerations of strategies for the management of biological resources.

Calculating the probability of multitaxon evolutionary trees: bootstrappers Gambit.

The reconstruction of multitaxon trees from molecular sequences is confounded by the variety of algorithms and criteria used to evaluate trees, making it difficult to compare the results of different analyses. A global method of multitaxon phylogenetic reconstruction described here, Bootstrappers Gambit, can be used with any four-taxon algorithm, including distance, maximum likelihood, and parsimony methods. It incorporates a Bayesian-Jeffreys'-bootstrap analysis to provide a uniform probability-based criterion for comparing the results from diverse algorithms. To examine the usefulness of the method, the origin of the eukaryotes has been investigated by the analysis of ribosomal small subunit RNA sequences. Three common algorithms (paralinear distances, Jukes-Cantor distances, and Kimura distances) support the eocyte topology, whereas one (maximum parsimony) supports the archaebacterial topology, suggesting that the eocyte prokaryotes are the closest prokaryotic relatives of the eukaryotes.