Density-dependent decline of host abundance resulting from a new infectious disease

Although many new diseases have emerged within the past 2 decades [Cohen, M. L. (1998) Brit. Med. Bull. 54, 523–532], attributing low numbers of animal hosts to the existence of even a new pathogen is problematic. This is because very rarely does one have data on host abundance before and after the epizootic as well as detailed descriptions of pathogen prevalence [Dobson, A. P. & Hudson, P. J. (1985) in Ecology of Infectious Diseases in Natural Populations, eds. Grenfell, B. T. & Dobson, A. P. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.), pp. 52–89]. Month by month we tracked the spread of the epizootic of an apparently novel strain of a widespread poultry pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum, through a previously unknown host, the house finch, whose abundance has been monitored over past decades. Here we are able to demonstrate a causal relationship between high disease prevalence and declining house finch abundance throughout the eastern half of North America because the epizootic reached different parts of the house finch range at different times. Three years after the epizootic arrived, house finch abundance stabilized at similar levels, although house finch abundance had been high and stable in some areas but low and rapidly increasing in others. This result, not previously documented in wild populations, is as expected from theory if transmission of the disease was density dependent.

Evolutionary theory predicts late-life mortality plateaus

Most demographic data indicate a roughly exponential increase in adult mortality with age, a phenomenon that has been explained in terms of a decline in the force of natural selection acting on age-specific mortality. Scattered demographic findings suggest the existence of a late-life mortality plateau in both humans and dipteran insects, seemingly at odds with both prior data and evolutionary theory. Extensions to the evolutionary theory of aging are developed which indicate that such late-life mortality plateaus are to be expected when enough late-life data are collected. This expanded theory predicts late-life mortality plateaus, with both antagonistic pleiotropy and mutation accumulation as driving population genetic mechanisms.