Regular and stochastic dynamics in the real quadratic family

We prove the Regulat or Stochastic Conjecture for the real quadratic family which asserts that almost every real quadratic map Pc, c ∈ [−2, 1/4], has either an attracting cycle or an absolutely continuous invariant measure.

Microsatellites provide evidence for Y chromosome diversity among the founders of the New World

Recently, Y chromosome markers have begun to be used to study Native American origins. Available data have been interpreted as indicating that the colonizers of the New World carried a single founder haplotype. However, these early studies have been based on a few, mostly complex polymorphisms of insufficient resolution to determine whether observed diversity stems from admixture or diversity among the colonizers. Because the interpretation of Y chromosomal variation in the New World depends on founding diversity, it is important to develop marker systems with finer resolution. Here we evaluate the hypothesis of a single-founder Y haplotype for Amerinds by using 11 Y-specific markers in five Colombian Amerind populations. Two of these markers (DYS271, DYS287) are reliable indicators of admixture and detected three non-Amerind chromosomes in our sample. Two other markers (DYS199, M19) are single-nucleotide polymorphisms mostly restricted to Native Americans. The relatedness of chromosomes defined by these two markers was evaluated by constructing haplotypes with seven microsatellite loci (DYS388 to 394). The microsatellite backgrounds found on the two haplogroups defined by marker DYS199 demonstrate the existence of at least two Amerind founder haplotypes, one of them (carrying allele DYS199 T) largely restricted to Native Americans. The estimated age and distribution of these haplogroups places them among the founders of the New World.

Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks.

Deployment of human-machine dialogue systems.

The deployment of systems for human-to-machine communication by voice requires overcoming a variety of obstacles that affect the speech-processing technologies. Problems encountered in the field might include variation in speaking style, acoustic noise, ambiguity of language, or confusion on the part of the speaker. The diversity of these practical problems encountered in the "real world" leads to the perceived gap between laboratory and "real-world" performance. To answer the question "What applications can speech technology support today?" the concept of the "degree of difficulty" of an application is introduced. The degree of difficulty depends not only on the demands placed on the speech recognition and speech synthesis technologies but also on the expectations of the user of the system. Experience has shown that deployment of effective speech communication systems requires an iterative process. This paper discusses general deployment principles, which are illustrated by several examples of human-machine communication systems.