15 resultados para estimating conditional probabilities

em National Center for Biotechnology Information - NCBI


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Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of recipient HLA-DRB1 allele disparity in the development of acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) after unrelated donor marrow transplantation. The role of HLA-DQB1 allele disparity in this clinical setting is unknown. To elucidate the biological importance of HLA-DQB1, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 449 HLA-A, -B, and -DR serologically matched unrelated donor transplants. Molecular typing of HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 alleles revealed 335 DRB1 and DQB1 matched pairs; 41 DRB1 matched and DQB1 mismatched pairs; 48 DRB1 mismatched and DQB1 matched pairs; and 25 DRB1 and DQB1 mismatched pairs. The conditional probabilities of grades III-IV acute GVHD were 0.42, 0.61, 0.55, and 0.71, respectively. The relative risk of acute GVHD associated with a single locus HLA-DQB1 mismatch was 1.8 (1.1, 2.7; P = 0.01), and the risk associated with any HLA-DQB1 and/or HLA-DRB1 mismatch was 1.6 (1.2, 2.2; P = 0.003). These results provide evidence that HLA-DQ is a transplant antigen and suggest that evaluation of both HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 is necessary in selecting potential donors.

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Structural genomics aims to solve a large number of protein structures that represent the protein space. Currently an exhaustive solution for all structures seems prohibitively expensive, so the challenge is to define a relatively small set of proteins with new, currently unknown folds. This paper presents a method that assigns each protein with a probability of having an unsolved fold. The method makes extensive use of protomap, a sequence-based classification, and scop, a structure-based classification. According to protomap, the protein space encodes the relationship among proteins as a graph whose vertices correspond to 13,354 clusters of proteins. A representative fold for a cluster with at least one solved protein is determined after superposition of all scop (release 1.37) folds onto protomap clusters. Distances within the protomap graph are computed from each representative fold to the neighboring folds. The distribution of these distances is used to create a statistical model for distances among those folds that are already known and those that have yet to be discovered. The distribution of distances for solved/unsolved proteins is significantly different. This difference makes it possible to use Bayes' rule to derive a statistical estimate that any protein has a yet undetermined fold. Proteins that score the highest probability to represent a new fold constitute the target list for structural determination. Our predicted probabilities for unsolved proteins correlate very well with the proportion of new folds among recently solved structures (new scop 1.39 records) that are disjoint from our original training set.

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Clinical investigation of malaria is hampered by the lack of a method for estimating the number of parasites that are sequestered in the tissues, for it is these parasites that are thought to be crucial to the pathogenesis of life-threatening complications such as cerebral malaria. We present a method of estimating this hidden population by using clinical observations of peripheral parasitemia combined with an age-structured mathematical model of the parasite erythrocyte cycle. Applying the model to data from 217 Gambian children undergoing treatment for cerebral malaria we conclude that although artemether clears parasitemia more rapidly than quinine, the clearance of sequestered parasites is similar for the two drugs. The estimated sequestered mass was found to be a more direct predictor of fatal outcome than clinically observed parasitemia. This method allows a sequential analysis of sequestered parasite population dynamics in children suffering from cerebral malaria, and the results offer a possible explanation for why artemether provides less advantage than might have been expected over quinine in reducing mortality despite its rapid effect on circulating parasites.

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Although most ecologists agree that both top-down and bottom-up forces (predation and resource limitation, respectively) act in concert to influence populations of herbivores, it has proven difficult to estimate the relative contributions of such forces in terrestrial systems. Using a combination of time–series analysis of population counts recorded over 16 years and experimental data, we present the first estimates of the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces on the population dynamics of two terrestrial insect herbivores on the English oak (Quercus robur). Data suggest that temporal variation in winter moth, Operophtera brumata, density is dominated by time-lagged effects of pupal predators. By comparison, spatial variation in O. brumata density is dominated by host–plant quality. Overall, top-down forces explain 34.2% of population variance, bottom-up forces explain 17.2% of population variance, and 48.6% remains unexplained. In contrast, populations of the green oak tortrix, Tortrix viridana, appear dominated by bottom-up forces. Resource limitation, expressed as intraspecific competition among larvae for oak leaves, explains 29.4% of population variance. Host quality effects explain an additional 5.7% of population variance. We detected no major top-down effects on T. viridana populations. An unknown factor causing a linear decline in T. viridana populations over the 16-year study period accounts for most of the remaining unexplained variance. We discuss the observed differences between the insect species and the utility of time–series analysis as a tool in assessing the relative importance of top-down and bottom-up forces on herbivore populations.

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We have recently shown that VEGF functions as a survival factor for newly formed vessels during developmental neovascularization, but is not required for maintenance of mature vessels. Reasoning that expanding tumors contain a significant fraction of newly formed and remodeling vessels, we examined whether abrupt withdrawal of VEGF will result in regression of preformed tumor vessels. Using a tetracycline-regulated VEGF expression system in xenografted C6 glioma cells, we showed that shutting off VEGF production leads to detachment of endothelial cells from the walls of preformed vessels and their subsequent death by apoptosis. Vascular collapse then leads to hemorrhages and extensive tumor necrosis. These results suggest that enforced withdrawal of vascular survival factors can be applied to target preformed tumor vasculature in established tumors. The system was also used to examine phenotypes resulting from over-expression of VEGF. When expression of the transfected VEGF cDNA was continuously “on,” tumors became hyper-vascularized with abnormally large vessels, presumably arising from excessive fusions. Tumors were significantly less necrotic, suggesting that necrosis in these tumors is the result of insufficient angiogenesis.

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Two variables define the topological state of closed double-stranded DNA: the knot type, K, and ΔLk, the linking number difference from relaxed DNA. The equilibrium distribution of probabilities of these states, P(ΔLk, K), is related to two conditional distributions: P(ΔLk|K), the distribution of ΔLk for a particular K, and P(K|ΔLk) and also to two simple distributions: P(ΔLk), the distribution of ΔLk irrespective of K, and P(K). We explored the relationships between these distributions. P(ΔLk, K), P(ΔLk), and P(K|ΔLk) were calculated from the simulated distributions of P(ΔLk|K) and of P(K). The calculated distributions agreed with previous experimental and theoretical results and greatly advanced on them. Our major focus was on P(K|ΔLk), the distribution of knot types for a particular value of ΔLk, which had not been evaluated previously. We found that unknotted circular DNA is not the most probable state beyond small values of ΔLk. Highly chiral knotted DNA has a lower free energy because it has less torsional deformation. Surprisingly, even at |ΔLk| > 12, only one or two knot types dominate the P(K|ΔLk) distribution despite the huge number of knots of comparable complexity. A large fraction of the knots found belong to the small family of torus knots. The relationship between supercoiling and knotting in vivo is discussed.

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The effects of cell toxicity are known to be inherent in carcinogenesis induced by radiation or chemical carcinogens. The event of cell death precludes tumor induction from occurring. A long standing problem is to estimate the proportion of initiated cells that die before tumor induction. No experimental techniques are currently available for directly gauging the rate of cell death over extended periods of time. The obstacle can be surmounted by newly developed theoretical methods of carcinogenesis modeling. In this paper, we apply such methods to published data on multiple lung tumors in mice receiving different schedules of urethane. Bioassays of this type play an important role in testing environmental chemicals for carcinogenic activity. Our estimates for urethane-induced carcinogenesis show that, unexpectedly, many initiated cells die early in the course of tumor promotion. We present numerical estimates for the probability of initiated cell death for different schedules (and doses) of urethane administration.

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We have developed a universally applicable system for conditional gene expression in embryonic stem (ES) cells that relies on tamoxifen-dependent Cre recombinase-loxP site-mediated recombination and bicistronic gene-trap expression vectors that allow transgene expression from endogenous cellular promoters. Two vectors were introduced into the genome of recipient ES cells, successively: (i) a bicistronic gene-trap vector encoding the β-galactosidase/neoR fusion protein and the Cre-ERT2 (Cre recombinase fused to a mutated ligand-binding domain of the human estrogen receptor) and (ii) a bicistronic gene-trap vector encoding the hygroR protein and the human alkaline phosphatase (hAP), the expression of which is prevented by tandemly repeated stop-of-transcription sequences flanked by loxP sites. In selected clones, hAP expression was shown to be regulated accurately by 4′hydroxy-tamoxifen. Strict hormone-dependent expression of hAP was achieved (i) in vitro in undifferentiated ES cells and embryoid bodies, (ii) in vivo in virtually all the tissues of the 10-day-old chimeric fetus (after injection of 4′hydroxy-tamoxifen to foster mothers), and (iii) ex vivo in primary embryonic fibroblasts isolated from chimeric fetuses. Therefore, this approach can be applied to drive conditional expression of virtually any transgene in a large variety of cell types, both in vitro and in vivo.

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Conditional gene repair mutations in the mouse can assist in cell lineage analyses and provide a valuable complement to conditional gene inactivation strategies. We present a method for the generation of conditional gene repair mutations that employs a loxP-flanked (floxed) selectable marker and transcriptional/translational stop cassette (neostop) located within the first intron of a target gene. In the absence of Cre recombinase, expression of the targeted allele is suppressed generating a null allele, while in the presence of Cre, excision of neostop restores expression to wild-type levels. To test this strategy, we have generated a conditional gene repair allele of the mouse Huntington’s disease gene homolog (Hdh). Insertion of neostop within the Hdh intron 1 generated a null allele and mice homozygous for this allele resembled nullizygous Hdh mutants and died after embryonic day 8.5. In the presence of a cre transgene expressed ubiquitously early in development, excision of neostop restored Hdh expression and rescued the early embryonic lethality. A simple modification of this strategy that permits the generation of conventional gene knockout, conditional gene knockout and conditional gene repair alleles using one targeting construct is discussed.

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ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters bind and hydrolyze ATP. In the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator Cl− channel, this interaction with ATP generates a gating cycle between a closed (C) and two open (O1 and O2) conformations. To understand better how ATP controls channel activity, we examined gating transitions from the C to the O1 and O2 states and from these open states to the C conformation. We made three main observations. First, we found that the channel can open into either the O1 or O2 state, that the frequency of transitions to both states was increased by ATP concentration, and that ATP increased the relative proportion of openings into O1 vs. O2. These results indicate that ATP can interact with the closed state to open the channel in at least two ways, which may involve binding to nucleotide-binding domains (NBDs) NBD1 and NBD2. Second, ATP prolonged the burst duration and altered the way in which the channel closed. These data suggest that ATP also interacts with the open channel. Third, the channel showed runs of specific types of open–closed transitions. This finding suggests a mechanism with more than one cycle of gating transitions. These data suggest models to explain how ATP influences conformational transitions in cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator and perhaps other ABC transporters.

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Census data on endangered species are often sparse, error-ridden, and confined to only a segment of the population. Estimating trends and extinction risks using this type of data presents numerous difficulties. In particular, the estimate of the variation in year-to-year transitions in population size (the “process error” caused by stochasticity in survivorship and fecundities) is confounded by the addition of high sampling error variation. In addition, the year-to-year variability in the segment of the population that is sampled may be quite different from the population variability that one is trying to estimate. The combined effect of severe sampling error and age- or stage-specific counts leads to severe biases in estimates of population-level parameters. I present an estimation method that circumvents the problem of age- or stage-specific counts and is markedly robust to severe sampling error. This method allows the estimation of environmental variation and population trends for extinction-risk analyses using corrupted census counts—a common type of data for endangered species that has hitherto been relatively unusable for these analyses.

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Plasma levels of corticosterone are often used as a measure of “stress” in wild animal populations. However, we lack conclusive evidence that different stress levels reflect different survival probabilities between populations. Galápagos marine iguanas offer an ideal test case because island populations are affected differently by recurring El Niño famine events, and population-level survival can be quantified by counting iguanas locally. We surveyed corticosterone levels in six populations during the 1998 El Niño famine and the 1999 La Niña feast period. Iguanas had higher baseline and handling stress-induced corticosterone concentrations during famine than feast conditions. Corticosterone levels differed between islands and predicted survival through an El Niño period. However, among individuals, baseline corticosterone was only elevated when body condition dropped below a critical threshold. Thus, the population-level corticosterone response was variable but nevertheless predicted overall population health. Our results lend support to the use of corticosterone as a rapid quantitative predictor of survival in wild animal populations.

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We cloned a rat vascular chymase (RVCH) from smooth muscle cells (SMCs) that converts angiotensin I to II and is up-regulated in SMC from spontaneously hypertensive vs. normotensive rats. To determine whether increased activity of RVCH is sufficient to cause hypertension, transgenic mice were generated with targeted conditional expression of RVCH to SMC, with the use of the tetracycline-controlled transactivator (tTA). We confirmed conditional expression of RVCH by mRNA, protein, and chymase activity in the absence, but not in the presence, of dietary doxycycline. The systolic blood pressure (mmHg), measured by carotid artery cannulation at 10–12 weeks of age, was higher in tTA+/RVCH+ mice than in nonbinary transgenic littermates (136 ± 4 vs. 109 ± 3) (P < 0.05), as were the diastolic and mean pressures. Hypertension was completely reversed by doxycycline, suggesting a causal link with chymase expression. Medial thickening of mesenteric arteries from tTA+/RVCH+ mice vs. littermates (0.82 ± 0.1 vs. 0.42 ± 0.02) (P < 0.05) was associated with increased SMC proliferation, as judged by positive immunoreactivity, with the use of an antibody to the proliferating cell nuclear antigen. These structural changes were prevented by doxycycline. Perfusion myography of mesenteric arteries from tTA+/RVCH+ mice also revealed increased vasoconstriction in response to phenylephrine and impaired metacholine-induced vasodilatation when compared with littermate controls or with the doxycyline-treated group. Our studies suggest that up-regulation of this vascular chymase is sufficient to cause a hypertensive arteriopathy, and that RVCH may be a candidate gene and a therapeutic target in patients with high blood pressure.

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Although sessile in nature, plants are able to use a number of mechanisms to modify their morphology in response to changing environmental conditions. Differential growth is one such mechanism. Despite its importance in plant development, little is known about the molecular events regulating the establishment of differential growth. Here we report analyses of the nph4 (nonphototropic hypocotyl) mutants of Arabidopsis that suggest that the NPH4 protein plays a central role in the modulation of auxin-dependent differential growth. Results from physiological studies demonstrate that NPH4 activity is conditionally required for a number of differential growth responses, including phototropism, gravitropism, phytochrome-dependent hypocotyl curvature, apical hook maintenance, and abaxial/adaxial leaf-blade expansion. The nph4 mutants exhibited auxin resistance and severely impaired auxin-dependent gene expression, indicating that the defects associated with differential growth likely arise because of altered auxin responsiveness. Moreover, the auxin signaling events mediating phototropism are genetically correlated with the abundance of the NPH4 protein.