Unusual dynamics of extinction in a simple ecological model.

Studies on natural populations and harvesting biological resources have led to the view, commonly held, that (i) populations exhibiting chaotic oscillations run a high risk of extinction; and (ii) a decrease in emigration/exploitation may reduce the risk of extinction. Here we describe a simple ecological model with emigration/depletion that shows behavior in contrast to this. This model displays unusual dynamics of extinction and survival, where populations growing beyond a critical rate can persist within a band of high depletion rates, whereas extinction occurs for lower depletion rates. Though prior to extinction at lower depletion rates the population exhibits chaotic dynamics with large amplitudes of variation and very low minima, at higher depletion rates the population persists at chaos but with reduced variation and increased minima. For still higher values, within the band of persistence, the dynamics show period reversal leading to stability. These results illustrate that chaos does not necessarily lead to population extinction. In addition, the persistence of populations at high depletion rates has important implications in the considerations of strategies for the management of biological resources.

Possible ecological risks of transgenic organism release when transgenes affect mating success: Sexual selection and the Trojan gene hypothesis

Widespread interest in producing transgenic organisms is balanced by concern over ecological hazards, such as species extinction if such organisms were to be released into nature. An ecological risk associated with the introduction of a transgenic organism is that the transgene, though rare, can spread in a natural population. An increase in transgene frequency is often assumed to be unlikely because transgenic organisms typically have some viability disadvantage. Reduced viability is assumed to be common because transgenic individuals are best viewed as macromutants that lack any history of selection that could reduce negative fitness effects. However, these arguments ignore the potential advantageous effects of transgenes on some aspect of fitness such as mating success. Here, we examine the risk to a natural population after release of a few transgenic individuals when the transgene trait simultaneously increases transgenic male mating success and lowers the viability of transgenic offspring. We obtained relevant life history data by using the small cyprinodont fish, Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) as a model. Our deterministic equations predict that a transgene introduced into a natural population by a small number of transgenic fish will spread as a result of enhanced mating advantage, but the reduced viability of offspring will cause eventual local extinction of both populations. Such risks should be evaluated with each new transgenic animal before release.

Ecological approaches and the development of “truly integrated” pest management

Recent predictions of growth in human populations and food supply suggest that there will be a need to substantially increase food production in the near future. One possible approach to meeting this demand, at least in part, is the control of pests and diseases, which currently cause a 30–40% loss in available crop production. In recent years, strategies for controlling pests and diseases have tended to focus on short-term, single-technology interventions, particularly chemical pesticides. This model frequently applies even where so-called integrated pest management strategies are used because in reality, these often are dominated by single technologies (e.g., biocontrol, host plant resistance, or biopesticides) that are used as replacements for chemicals. Very little attention is given to the interaction or compatibility of the different technologies used. Unfortunately, evidence suggests that such approaches rarely yield satisfactory results and are unlikely to provide sustainable pest control solutions for the future. Drawing on two case histories, this paper demonstrates that by increasing our basic understanding of how individual pest control technologies act and interact, new opportunities for improving pest control can be revealed. This approach stresses the need to break away from the existing single-technology, pesticide-dominated paradigm and to adopt a more ecological approach built around a fundamental understanding of population biology at the local farm level and the true integration of renewable technologies such as host plant resistance and natural biological control, which are available to even the most resource-poor farmers.

Flower color variation: A model for the experimental study of evolution

We review the study of flower color polymorphisms in the morning glory as a model for the analysis of adaptation. The pathway involved in the determination of flower color phenotype is traced from the molecular and genetic levels to the phenotypic level. Many of the genes that determine the enzymatic components of flavonoid biosynthesis are redundant, but, despite this complexity, it is possible to associate discrete floral phenotypes with individual genes. An important finding is that almost all of the mutations that determine phenotypic differences are the result of transposon insertions. Thus, the flower color diversity seized on by early human domesticators of this plant is a consequence of the rich variety of mobile elements that reside in the morning glory genome. We then consider a long history of research aimed at uncovering the ecological fate of these various flower phenotypes in the southeastern U.S. A large body of work has shown that insect pollinators discriminate against white phenotypes when white flowers are rare in populations. Because the plant is self-compatible, pollinator bias causes an increase in self-fertilization in white maternal plants, which should lead to an increase in the frequency of white genes, according to modifier gene theory. Studies of geographical distributions indicate other, as yet undiscovered, disadvantages associated with the white phenotype. The ultimate goal of connecting ecology to molecular genetics through the medium of phenotype is yet to be attained, but this approach may represent a model for analyzing the translation between these two levels of biological organization.