Declining brain activity in cognitively normal apolipoprotein E ɛ4 heterozygotes: A foundation for using positron emission tomography to efficiently test treatments to prevent Alzheimer's disease

Cross-sectional positron emission tomography (PET) studies find that cognitively normal carriers of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 allele, a common Alzheimer's susceptibility gene, have abnormally low measurements of the cerebral metabolic rate for glucose (CMRgl) in the same regions as patients with Alzheimer's dementia. In this article, we characterize longitudinal CMRgl declines in cognitively normal ɛ4 heterozygotes, estimate the power of PET to test the efficacy of treatments to attenuate these declines in 2 years, and consider how this paradigm could be used to efficiently test the potential of candidate therapies for the prevention of Alzheimer's disease. We studied 10 cognitively normal ɛ4 heterozygotes and 15 ɛ4 noncarriers 50–63 years of age with a reported family history of Alzheimer's dementia before and after an interval of approximately 2 years. The ɛ4 heterozygotes had significant CMRgl declines in the vicinity of temporal, posterior cingulate, and prefrontal cortex, basal forebrain, parahippocampal gyrus, and thalamus, and these declines were significantly greater than those in the ɛ4 noncarriers. In testing candidate primary prevention therapies, we estimate that between 50 and 115 cognitively normal ɛ4 heterozygotes are needed per active and placebo treatment group to detect a 25% attenuation in these CMRgl declines with 80% power and P = 0.005 in 2 years. Assuming these CMRgl declines are related to the predisposition to Alzheimer's dementia, this study provides a paradigm for testing the potential of treatments to prevent the disorder without having to study thousands of research subjects or wait many years to determine whether or when treated individuals develop symptoms.

RNA virus error catastrophe: Direct molecular test by using ribavirin

RNA viruses evolve rapidly. One source of this ability to rapidly change is the apparently high mutation frequency in RNA virus populations. A high mutation frequency is a central tenet of the quasispecies theory. A corollary of the quasispecies theory postulates that, given their high mutation frequency, animal RNA viruses may be susceptible to error catastrophe, where they undergo a sharp drop in viability after a modest increase in mutation frequency. We recently showed that the important broad-spectrum antiviral drug ribavirin (currently used to treat hepatitis C virus infections, among others) is an RNA virus mutagen, and we proposed that ribavirin's antiviral effect is by forcing RNA viruses into error catastrophe. However, a direct demonstration of error catastrophe has not been made for ribavirin or any RNA virus mutagen. Here we describe a direct demonstration of error catastrophe by using ribavirin as the mutagen and poliovirus as a model RNA virus. We demonstrate that ribavirin's antiviral activity is exerted directly through lethal mutagenesis of the viral genetic material. A 99.3% loss in viral genome infectivity is observed after a single round of virus infection in ribavirin concentrations sufficient to cause a 9.7-fold increase in mutagenesis. Compiling data on both the mutation levels and the specific infectivities of poliovirus genomes produced in the presence of ribavirin, we have constructed a graph of error catastrophe showing that normal poliovirus indeed exists at the edge of viability. These data suggest that RNA virus mutagens may represent a promising new class of antiviral drugs.