Different population dynamics of human T cell lymphotropic virus type II in intravenous drug users compared with endemically infected tribes

The phylogeny of human T cell lymphotropic virus type II (HTLV-II) was investigated by using strains isolated from Amerindian and Pygmy tribes, in which the virus is maintained primarily through mother-to-child transmission via breast-feeding, and strains from intravenous drug users (IDUs), in which spread is mainly blood-borne via needle sharing. Molecular clock analysis showed that HTLV-II has two different evolutionary rates with the molecular clock for the virus in IDUs ticking 150–350 times faster than the one in endemically infected tribes: 2.7 × 10−4 compared with 1.71/7.31 × 10−7 nucleotide substitutions per site per year in the long terminal repeat region. This dramatic acceleration of the evolutionary rate seems to be related with the mode of transmission. Mathematical models showed the correlation of these two molecular clocks with an endemic spread of HTLV-II in infected tribes compared with the epidemic spread in IDUs. We also noted a sharp increase in the population size of the virus among IDUs during the last decades probably caused by the worldwide increase in intravenous drug use.

A distinctive clade B HIV type 1 is heterosexually transmitted in Trinidad and Tobago

HIV-1 transmission worldwide is predominantly associated with heterosexual activity, and non-clade B viruses account for the most spread. The HIV-1 epidemic in Trinidad/Tobago and the Caribbean shares many features with such heterosexual epidemics, including a prominent role for coincident sexually transmitted diseases. This study evaluates the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Trinidad/Tobago during a period when abrupt transition from homosexual to heterosexual transmission occurred in the absence of injecting drug use, concomitant with a rapid rise in HIV-1 prevalence in the heterosexual population. Of 31 viral isolates studied during 1987–1995, all cluster with subtype B reference strains. In the analysis of full env genes from 22 early seroconverters, the Trinidad isolates constitute a significant subcluster within the B subtype. The Trinidad V3 consensus sequence differs by a single amino acid from the prototype B V3 consensus and demonstrates stability over the decade of this study. In the majority of isolates, the V3 loop of env contains a signature threonine deletion that marks the lineage of the Trinidad HIV-1 clade B epidemic from pre-1984. No phenotypic features, including syncitium induction, neutralization profiles, and chemokine receptor usage, distinguish this virus population from other subtype B viruses. Thus, although the subtype B HIV-1 viruses being transmitted in Trinidad are genetically distinguishable from other subtype B viruses, this is probably the result of a strong founder effect in a geographically circumscribed population rather than genetic selection for heterosexual transmission. These results demonstrate that canonical clade B HIV-1 can generate a typical heterosexual epidemic.

How can statistical mechanics contribute to social science?

A model of interdependent decision making has been developed to understand group differences in socioeconomic behavior such as nonmarital fertility, school attendance, and drug use. The statistical mechanical structure of the model illustrates how the physical sciences contain useful tools for the study of socioeconomic phenomena.