Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks.

Simple mechanochemistry describes the dynamics of kinesin molecules

Recently, Block and coworkers [Visscher, K., Schnitzer, M. J., & Block, S. M. (1999) Nature (London) 400, 184–189 and Schnitzer, M. J., Visscher, K. & Block, S. M. (2000) Nat. Cell Biol. 2, 718–723] have reported extensive observations of individual kinesin molecules moving along microtubules in vitro under controlled loads, F = 1 to 8 pN, with [ATP] = 1 μM to 2 mM. Their measurements of velocity, V, randomness, r, stalling force, and mean run length, L, reveal a need for improved theoretical understanding. We show, presenting explicit formulae that provide a quantitative basis for comparing distinct molecular motors, that their data are satisfactorily described by simple, discrete-state, sequential stochastic models. The simplest (N = 2)-state model with fixed load-distribution factors and kinetic rate constants concordant with stopped-flow experiments, accounts for the global (V, F, L, [ATP]) interdependence and, further, matches relative acceleration observed under assisting loads. The randomness, r(F,[ATP]), is accounted for by a waiting-time distribution, ψ\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}{\mathrm{_{1}^{+}}}\end{equation*}\end{document}(t), [for the transition(s) following ATP binding] with a width parameter ν ≡ 〈t〉2/〈(Δt)2〉≃2.5, indicative of a dispersive stroke of mechanicity ≃0.6 or of a few (≳ν − 1) further, kinetically coupled states: indeed, N = 4 (but not N = 3) models do well. The analysis reveals: (i) a substep of d0 = 1.8–2.1 nm on ATP binding (consistent with structurally based suggestions); (ii) comparable load dependence for ATP binding and unbinding; (iii) a strong load dependence for reverse hydrolysis and subsequent reverse rates; and (iv) a large (≳50-fold) increase in detachment rate, with a marked load dependence, following ATP binding.

Slip complexity in earthquake fault models.

We summarize studies of earthquake fault models that give rise to slip complexities like those in natural earthquakes. For models of smooth faults between elastically deformable continua, it is critical that the friction laws involve a characteristic distance for slip weakening or evolution of surface state. That results in a finite nucleation size, or coherent slip patch size, h*. Models of smooth faults, using numerical cell size properly small compared to h*, show periodic response or complex and apparently chaotic histories of large events but have not been found to show small event complexity like the self-similar (power law) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics. This conclusion is supported in the present paper by fully inertial elastodynamic modeling of earthquake sequences. In contrast, some models of locally heterogeneous faults with quasi-independent fault segments, represented approximately by simulations with cell size larger than h* so that the model becomes "inherently discrete," do show small event complexity of the Gutenberg-Richter type. Models based on classical friction laws without a weakening length scale or for which the numerical procedure imposes an abrupt strength drop at the onset of slip have h* = 0 and hence always fall into the inherently discrete class. We suggest that the small-event complexity that some such models show will not survive regularization of the constitutive description, by inclusion of an appropriate length scale leading to a finite h*, and a corresponding reduction of numerical grid size.

Slip complexity in dynamic models of earthquake faults.

We summarize recent evidence that models of earthquake faults with dynamically unstable friction laws but no externally imposed heterogeneities can exhibit slip complexity. Two models are described here. The first is a one-dimensional model with velocity-weakening stick-slip friction; the second is a two-dimensional elastodynamic model with slip-weakening friction. Both exhibit small-event complexity and chaotic sequences of large characteristic events. The large events in both models are composed of Heaton pulses. We argue that the key ingredients of these models are reasonably accurate representations of the properties of real faults.