Residual delay maps unveil global patterns of atmospheric nonlinearity and produce improved local forecasts

We use residual-delay maps of observational field data for barometric pressure to demonstrate the structure of latitudinal gradients in nonlinearity in the atmosphere. Nonlinearity is weak and largely lacking in tropical and subtropical sites and increases rapidly into the temperate regions where the time series also appear to be much noisier. The degree of nonlinearity closely follows the meridional variation of midlatitude storm track frequency. We extract the specific functional form of this nonlinearity, a V shape in the lagged residuals that appears to be a basic feature of midlatitude synoptic weather systems associated with frontal passages. We present evidence that this form arises from the relative time scales of high-pressure versus low-pressure events. Finally, we show that this nonlinear feature is weaker in a well regarded numerical forecast model (European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts) because small-scale temporal and spatial variation is smoothed out in the grided inputs. This is significant, in that it allows us to demonstrate how application of statistical corrections based on the residual-delay map may provide marked increases in local forecast accuracy, especially for severe weather systems.

Creating local bibliographic databases: new tools for evidence-based health care*

The Internet has created new opportunities for librarians to present literature search results to clinicians. In order to take full advantage of these opportunities, libraries need to create locally maintained bibliographic databases. A simple method of creating a local bibliographic database and publishing it on the Web is described. The method uses off-the-shelf software and requires minimal programming. A hedge search strategy for outcome studies of clinical process interventions is created, and Ovid is used to search MEDLINE. The search results are saved and imported into EndNote libraries. The citations are modified, exported to a Microsoft Access database, and published on the Web. Clinicians can use a Web browser to search the database. The bibliographic database contains 13,803 MEDLINE citations of outcome studies. Most searches take between four and ten seconds and retrieve between ten and 100 citations. The entire cost of the software is under $900. Locally maintained bibliographic databases can be created easily and inexpensively. They significantly extend the evidence-based health care services that libraries can offer to clinicians.