A joint hazard and time scaling model to compare survival curves.

To provide a more general method for comparing survival experience, we propose a model that independently scales both hazard and time dimensions. To test the curve shape similarity of two time-dependent hazards, h1(t) and h2(t), we apply the proposed hazard relationship, h12(tKt)/ h1(t) = Kh, to h1. This relationship doubly scales h1 by the constant hazard and time scale factors, Kh and Kt, producing a transformed hazard, h12, with the same underlying curve shape as h1. We optimize the match of h12 to h2 by adjusting Kh and Kt. The corresponding survival relationship S12(tKt) = [S1(t)]KtKh transforms S1 into a new curve S12 of the same underlying shape that can be matched to the original S2. We apply this model to the curves for regional and local breast cancer contained in the National Cancer Institute's End Results Registry (1950-1973). Scaling the original regional curves, h1 and S1 with Kt = 1.769 and Kh = 0.263 produces transformed curves h12 and S12 that display congruence with the respective local curves, h2 and S2. This similarity of curve shapes suggests the application of the more complete curve shapes for regional disease as templates to predict the long-term survival pattern for local disease. By extension, this similarity raises the possibility of scaling early data for clinical trial curves according to templates of registry or previous trial curves, projecting long-term outcomes and reducing costs. The proposed model includes as special cases the widely used proportional hazards (Kt = 1) and accelerated life (KtKh = 1) models.

A test of alternative models of diversification in tropical rainforests: Ecological gradients vs. rainforest refugia

Comparison of mitochondrial and morphological divergence in eight populations of a widespread leaf-litter skink is used to determine the relative importance of geographic isolation and natural selection in generating phenotypic diversity in the Wet Tropics Rainforest region of Australia. The populations occur in two geographically isolated regions, and within each region, in two different habitats (closed rainforest and tall open forest) that span a well characterized ecological gradient. Morphological differences among ancient geographic isolates (separated for several million years, judging by their mitochondrial DNA sequence divergence) were slight, but morphological and life history differences among habitats were large and occurred despite moderate to high levels of mitochondrial gene flow. A field experiment identified avian predation as one potential agent of natural selection. These results indicate that natural selection operating across ecological gradients can be more important than geographic isolation in similar habitats in generating phenotypic diversity. In addition, our results indicate that selection is sufficiently strong to overcome the homogenizing effects of gene flow, a necessary first step toward speciation in continuously distributed populations. Because ecological gradients may be a source of evolutionary novelty, and perhaps new species, their conservation warrants greater attention. This is particularly true in tropical regions, where most reserves do not include ecological gradients and transitional habitats.

Modulation of Life-span by Histone Deacetylase Genes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

The yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae has a limited life-span, which is measured by the number of divisions that individual cells complete. Among the many changes that occur as yeasts age are alterations in chromatin-dependent transcriptional silencing. We have genetically manipulated histone deacetylases to modify chromatin, and we have examined the effect on yeast longevity. Deletion of the histone deacetylase gene RPD3 extended life-span. Its effects on chromatin functional state were evidenced by enhanced silencing at the three known heterochromatic regions of the genome, the silent mating type (HM), subtelomeric, and rDNA loci, which occurred even in the absence of SIR3. Similarly, the effect of the rpd3Δ on life-span did not depend on an intact Sir silencing complex. In fact, deletion of SIR3 itself had little effect on life-span, although it markedly accelerated the increase in cell generation time that is observed during yeast aging. Deletion of HDA1, another histone deacetylase gene, did not result in life-span extension, unless it was combined with deletion of SIR3. The hda1Δ sir3Δ resulted in an increase in silencing, but only at the rDNA locus. Deletion of RPD3 suppressed the loss of silencing in rDNA in a sir2 mutant; however, the silencing did not reach the level found in the rpd3Δ single mutant, and RPD3 deletion did not overcome the life-span shortening seen in the sir2 mutant. Deletion of both RPD3 and HDA1 caused a decrease in life-span, which resulted from a substantial increase in initial mortality of the population. The expression of both of these genes declines with age, providing one possible explanation for the increase in mortality during the life-span. Our results are consistent with the loss of rDNA silencing leading to aging in yeast. The functions of RPD3 and HDA1 do not overlap entirely. RPD3 exerts its effect on chromatin at additional sites in the genome, raising the possibility that events at loci other than rDNA play a role in the aging process.