Viral dynamics in vivo: limitations on estimates of intracellular delay and virus decay.

Anti-viral drug treatment of human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections causes rapid reduction in plasma virus load. Viral decline occurs in several phases and provides information on important kinetic constants of virus replication in vivo and pharmacodynamical properties. We develop a mathematical model that takes into account the intracellular phase of the viral life-cycle, defined as the time between infection of a cell and production of new virus particles. We derive analytic solutions for the dynamics following treatment with reverse transcriptase inhibitors, protease inhibitors, or a combination of both. For HIV-1, our results show that the phase of rapid decay in plasma virus (days 2-7) allows precise estimates for the turnover rate of productively infected cells. The initial quasi-stationary phase (days 0-1) and the transition phase (days 1-2) are explained by the combined effects of pharmacological and intracellular delays, the clearance of free virus particles, and the decay of infected cells. Reliable estimates of the first three quantities are not possible from data on virus load only; such estimates require additional measurements. In contrast with HIV-1, for HBV our model predicts that frequent early sampling of plasma virus will lead to reliable estimates of the free virus half-life and the pharmacological properties of the administered drug. On the other hand, for HBV the half-life of infected cells cannot be estimated from plasma virus decay.

Viral dynamics in hepatitis B virus infection.

Treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections with the reverse transcriptase inhibitor lamivudine leads to a rapid decline in plasma viremia and provides estimates for crucial kinetic constants of HBV replication. We find that in persistently infected patients, HBV particles are cleared from the plasma with a half-life of approximately 1.0 day, which implies a 50% daily turnover of the free virus population. Total viral release into the periphery is approximately 10(11) virus particles per day. Although we have no direct measurement of the infected cell mass, we can estimate the turnover rate of these cells in two ways: (i) by comparing the rate of viral production before and after therapy or (ii) from the decline of hepatitis B antigen during treatment. These two independent methods give equivalent results: we find a wide distribution of half-lives for virus-producing cells, ranging from 10 to 100 days in different patients, which may reflect differences in rates of lysis of infected cells by immune responses. Our analysis provides a quantitative understanding of HBV replication dynamics in vivo and has implications for the optimal timing of drug treatment and immunotherapy in chronic HBV infection. This study also represents a comparison for recent findings on the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. The total daily production of plasma virus is, on average, higher in chronic HBV carriers than in HIV-infected patients, but the half-life of virus-producing cells is much shorter in HIV. Most strikingly, there is no indication of drug resistance in HBV-infected patients treated for up to 24 weeks.

Coalescent estimates of HIV-1 generation time in vivo

The generation time of HIV Type 1 (HIV-1) in vivo has previously been estimated using a mathematical model of viral dynamics and was found to be on the order of one to two days per generation. Here, we describe a new method based on coalescence theory that allows the estimate of generation times to be derived by using nucleotide sequence data and a reconstructed genealogy of sequences obtained over time. The method is applied to sequences obtained from a long-term nonprogressing individual at five sampling occasions. The estimate of viral generation time using the coalescent method is 1.2 days per generation and is close to that obtained by mathematical modeling (1.8 days per generation), thus strengthening confidence in estimates of a short viral generation time. Apart from the estimation of relevant parameters relating to viral dynamics, coalescent modeling also allows us to simulate the evolutionary behavior of samples of sequences obtained over time.

HIV-1 and T cell dynamics after interruption of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in patients with a history of sustained viral suppression

Identifying the immunologic and virologic consequences of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected patients is of major importance in developing long-term treatment strategies for patients with HIV-1 infection. We designed a trial to characterize these parameters after interruption of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in patients who had maintained prolonged viral suppression on antiretroviral drugs. Eighteen patients with CD4+ T cell counts ≥ 350 cells/μl and viral load below the limits of detection for ≥1 year while on HAART were enrolled prospectively in a trial in which HAART was discontinued. Twelve of these patients had received prior IL-2 therapy and had low frequencies of resting, latently infected CD4 cells. Viral load relapse to >50 copies/ml occurred in all 18 patients independent of prior IL-2 treatment, beginning most commonly during weeks 2–3 after cessation of HAART. The mean relapse rate constant was 0.45 (0.20 log10 copies) day−1, which was very similar to the mean viral clearance rate constant after drug resumption of 0.35 (0.15 log10 copies) day−1 (P = 0.28). One patient experienced a relapse delay to week 7. All patients except one experienced a relapse burden to >5,000 RNA copies/ml. Ex vivo labeling with BrdUrd showed that CD4 and CD8 cell turnover increased after withdrawal of HAART and correlated with viral load whereas lymphocyte turnover decreased after reinitiation of drug treatment. Virologic relapse occurs rapidly in patients who discontinue suppressive drug therapy, even in patients with a markedly diminished pool of resting, latently infected CD4+ T cells.

Antigen-driven CD4+ T cell and HIV-1 dynamics: Residual viral replication under highly active antiretroviral therapy

Antigen-induced stimulation of the immune system can generate heterogeneity in CD4+ T cell division rates capable of explaining the temporal patterns seen in the decay of HIV-1 plasma RNA levels during highly active antiretroviral therapy. Posttreatment increases in peripheral CD4+ T cell counts are consistent with a mathematical model in which host cell redistribution between lymph nodes and peripheral blood is a function of viral burden. Model fits to patient data suggest that, although therapy reduces HIV replication below replacement levels, substantial residual replication continues. This residual replication has important consequences for long-term therapy and the evolution of drug resistance and represents a challenge for future treatment strategies.

Cytotoxic T lymphocytes and viral turnover in HIV type 1 infection

To understand the role of the immune system in limiting HIV type 1 replication, it is critical to know to what extent the rapid turnover of productively infected cells is caused by viral cytopathicity or by immune-mediated lysis. We show that uncultured peripheral blood mononuclear cells of many patients contain cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) that lyse target cells—at plausible peripheral blood mononuclear cell-to-target ratios—with half-lives of less than 1 day. In 23 patients with CD4 counts ranging from 10 to 900 per μl, the average rate of CTL-mediated lysis corresponds to a target cell half-life of 0.7 day. We develop mathematical models to calculate the turnover rate of infected cells subjected to immune-mediated lysis and viral cytopathicity and to estimate the fraction of cells that are killed by CTL as opposed to virus. The models provide new interpretations of drug treatment dynamics and explain why the observed rate of virus decline is roughly constant for different patients. We conclude that in HIV type 1 infection, CTL-mediated lysis can reduce virus load by limiting virus production, with small effects on the half-life of infected cells.

Genetic drift and within-host metapopulation dynamics of HIV-1 infection

Most HIV replication occurs in solid lymphoid tissue, which has prominent architecture at the histological level, which separates groups of productively infected CD4+ cells. Nevertheless, current population models of HIV assume panmixis within lymphoid tissue. We present a simple “metapopulation” model of HIV replication, where the population of infected cells is comprised of a large number of small populations, each of which is established by a few founder viruses and undergoes turnover. To test this model, we analyzed viral genetic variation of infected cell subpopulations within the spleen and demonstrated the action of founder effects as well as significant variation in the extent of genetic differentiation between subpopulations among patients. The combination of founder effects and subpopulation turnover can result in an effective population size much lower than the actual population size and may contribute to the importance of genetic drift in HIV evolution despite a large number of infected cells.

Population dynamics of flaviviruses revealed by molecular phylogenies.

The phylogeny of 123 complete envelope gene sequences was reconstructed in order to understand the evolution of tick- and mosquito-borne flaviviruses. An analysis of phylogenetic tree structure reveals a continual and asymmetric branching process in the tick-borne flaviviruses, compared with an explosive radiation in the last 200 years in viruses transmitted by mosquitoes. The distinction between these two viral groups probably reflects differences in modes of dispersal, propagation, and changes in the size of host populations. The most serious implication of this work is that growing human populations are being exposed to an expanding range of increasingly diverse viral strains.