Higher temporal variability of forest breeding bird communities in fragmented landscapes

Understanding the relationship between animal community dynamics and landscape structure has become a priority for biodiversity conservation. In particular, predicting the effects of habitat destruction that confine species to networks of small patches is an important prerequisite to conservation plan development. Theoretical models that predict the occurrence of species in fragmented landscapes, and relationships between stability and diversity do exist. However, reliable empirical investigations of the dynamics of biodiversity have been prevented by differences in species detection probabilities among landscapes. Using long-term data sampled at a large spatial scale in conjunction with a capture-recapture approach, we developed estimates of parameters of community changes over a 22-year period for forest breeding birds in selected areas of the eastern United States. We show that forest fragmentation was associated not only with a reduced number of forest bird species, but also with increased temporal variability in the number of species. This higher temporal variability was associated with higher local extinction and turnover rates. These results have major conservation implications. Moreover, the approach used provides a practical tool for the study of the dynamics of biodiversity.

A genetic record of population isolation in pocket gophers during Holocene climatic change

A long-standing question in Quaternary paleontology is whether climate-induced, population-level phenotypic change is a result of large-scale migration or evolution in isolation. To directly measure genetic variation through time, ancient DNA and morphologic variation was measured over 2,400 years in a Holocene sequence of pocket gophers (Thomomys talpoides) from Lamar Cave, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming. Ancient specimens and modern samples collected near Lamar Cave share mitochondrial cytochrome b sequences that are absent from adjacent localities, suggesting that the population was isolated for the entire period. In contrast, diastemal length, a morphologic character correlated with body size and nutritional level, changed predictably in response to climatic change. Our results demonstrate that small mammal populations can experience the long-term isolation assumed by many theoretical models of microevolutionary change.

Temporal variation, dormancy, and coexistence: A field test of the storage effect

Theoretical models suggest that overlapping generations, in combination with a temporally fluctuating environment, may allow the persistence of competitors that otherwise would not coexist. Despite extensive theoretical development, this “storage effect” hypothesis has received little empirical attention. Herein I present the first explicit mathematical analysis of the contribution of the storage effect to the dynamics of competing natural populations. In Oneida Lake, NY, data collected over the past 30 years show a striking negative correlation between the water-column densities of two species of suspension-feeding zooplankton, Daphnia galeata mendotae and Daphnia pulicaria. I have demonstrated competition between these two species and have shown that both possess long-lived eggs that establish overlapping generations. Moreover, recruitment to this long-lived stage varies annually, so that both daphnids have years in which they are favored (for recruitment) relative to their competitor. When the long-term population growth rates are calculated both with and without the effects of a variable environment, I show that D. galeata mendotae clearly cannot persist without the environmental variation and prolonged dormancy (i.e., storage effect) whereas D. pulicaria persists through consistently high per capita recruitment to the long-lived stage.

Limited internal friction in the rate-limiting step of a two-state protein folding reaction

Small, single-domain proteins typically fold via a compact transition-state ensemble in a process well fitted by a simple, two-state model. To characterize the rate-limiting conformational changes that underlie two-state folding, we have investigated experimentally the effects of changing solvent viscosity on the refolding of the IgG binding domain of protein L. In conjunction with numerical simulations, our results indicate that the rate-limiting conformational changes of the folding of this domain are strongly coupled to solvent viscosity and lack any significant “internal friction” arising from intrachain collisions. When compared with the previously determined solvent viscosity dependencies of other, more restricted conformational changes, our results suggest that the rate-limiting folding transition involves conformational fluctuations that displace considerable amounts of solvent. Reconciling evidence that the folding transition state ensemble is comprised of highly collapsed species with these and similar, previously reported results should provide a significant constraint for theoretical models of the folding process.

The evolution of begging: Signaling and sibling competition

In many species, young solicit food from their parents, which respond by feeding them. Because of the difference in genetic make-up between parents and their offspring and the consequent conflict, this interaction is often studied as a paradigm for the evolution of communication. Existent theoretical models demonstrate that chick signaling and parent responding can be stable if solicitation is a costly signal. The marginal cost of producing stronger signals allows the system to converge to an equilibrium: young beg with intensity that reflects their need, and parents use this information to maximize their own inclusive fitness. However, we show that there is another equilibrium where chicks do not beg and parents’ provisioning effort is optimal with respect to the statistically probable distribution of chicks’ states. Expected fitness for parents and offspring at the nonsignaling equilibrium is higher than at the signaling equilibrium. Because nonsignaling is stable and it is likely to be the ancestral condition, we would like to know how natural systems evolved from nonsignaling to signaling. We suggest that begging may have evolved through direct sibling fighting before the establishment of a parental response, that is, that nonsignaling squabbling leads to signaling. In multiple-offspring broods, young following a condition-dependent strategy in the contest for resources provide information about their condition. Parents can use this information even though it is not an adaptation for communication, and evolution will lead the system to the signaling equilibrium. This interpretation implies that signaling evolved in multiple-offspring broods, but given that signaling is evolutionarily stable, it would also be favored in species which secondarily evolved single-chick broods.

Frequency of resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis in field populations of pink bollworm

Strategies for delaying pest resistance to genetically modified crops that produce Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxins are based primarily on theoretical models. One key assumption of such models is that genes conferring resistance are rare. Previous estimates for lepidopteran pests targeted by Bt crops seem to meet this assumption. We report here that the estimated frequency of a recessive allele conferring resistance to Bt toxin Cry1Ac was 0.16 (95% confidence interval = 0.05–0.26) in strains of pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella) derived from 10 Arizona cotton fields during 1997. Unexpectedly, the estimated resistance allele frequency did not increase from 1997 to 1999 and Bt cotton remained extremely effective against pink bollworm. These results demonstrate that the assumptions and predictions of resistance management models must be reexamined.

Desert dust suppressing precipitation: A possible desertification feedback loop

The effect of desert dust on cloud properties and precipitation has so far been studied solely by using theoretical models, which predict that rainfall would be enhanced. Here we present observations showing the contrary; the effect of dust on cloud properties is to inhibit precipitation. Using satellite and aircraft observations we show that clouds forming within desert dust contain small droplets and produce little precipitation by drop coalescence. Measurement of the size distribution and the chemical analysis of individual Saharan dust particles collected in such a dust storm suggest a possible mechanism for the diminished rainfall. The detrimental impact of dust on rainfall is smaller than that caused by smoke from biomass burning or anthropogenic air pollution, but the large abundance of desert dust in the atmosphere renders it important. The reduction of precipitation from clouds affected by desert dust can cause drier soil, which in turn raises more dust, thus providing a possible feedback loop to further decrease precipitation. Furthermore, anthropogenic changes of land use exposing the topsoil can initiate such a desertification feedback process.

Observing the epoch of galaxy formation

Significant observational progress in addressing the question of the origin and early evolution of galaxies has been made in the past few years, allowing for direct comparison of the epoch when most of the stars in the universe were forming to prevailing theoretical models. There is currently broad consistency between theoretical expectations and the observations, but rapid improvement in the data will provide much more critical tests of theory in the coming years.

Neuroimaging studies of word reading

This review discusses how neuroimaging can contribute to our understanding of a fundamental aspect of skilled reading: the ability to pronounce a visually presented word. One contribution of neuroimaging is that it provides a tool for localizing brain regions that are active during word reading. To assess the extent to which similar results are obtained across studies, a quantitative review of nine neuroimaging investigations of word reading was conducted. Across these studies, the results converge to reveal a set of areas active during word reading, including left-lateralized regions in occipital and occipitotemporal cortex, the left frontal operculum, bilateral regions within the cerebellum, primary motor cortex, and the superior and middle temporal cortex, and medial regions in the supplementary motor area and anterior cingulate. Beyond localization, the challenge is to use neuroimaging as a tool for understanding how reading is accomplished. Central to this challenge will be the integration of neuroimaging results with information from other methodologies. To illustrate this point, this review will highlight the importance of spelling-to-sound consistency in the transformation from orthographic (word form) to phonological (word sound) representations, and then explore results from three neuroimaging studies in which the spelling-to-sound consistency of the stimuli was deliberately varied. Emphasis is placed on the pattern of activation observed within the left frontal cortex, because the results provide an example of the issues and benefits involved in relating neuroimaging results to behavioral results in normal and brain damaged subjects, and to theoretical models of reading.

Sexually antagonistic coevolution of a postmating-prezygotic reproductive character in desert Drosophila

Rapid divergence in postmating-prezygotic characters suggests that selection may be responsible for generating reproductive barriers between closely related species. Theoretical models indicate that this rapid divergence could be generated by a series of male adaptations and female counteradaptations by means of sexual selection or conflict, but empirical tests of particular mechanisms are generally lacking. Moreover, although a male–female genotypic interaction in mediating sperm competition attests to an active role of females, molecular or morphological evidence of the female's participation in the coevolutionary process is critically needed. Here we show that postmating-prezygotic variation among populations of cactophilic desert Drosophila reflects divergent coevolutionary trajectories between the sexes. We explicitly test the female's role in intersexual interactions by quantifying differences in a specific postmating-prezygotic reproductive character, the insemination reaction mass, in two species, Drosophila mojavensis and Drosophila arizonae. A series of interpopulation crosses confirmed that population divergence was propelled by male–female interactions, a prerequisite if the selective forces derive from sexual conflicts. An association between the reaction mass and remating and oviposition behavior argues that divergence has been propelled by sexually antagonistic coevolution, and potentially has important implications for speciation.

The repetition of large-earthquake ruptures.

This survey of well-documented repeated fault rupture confirms that some faults have exhibited a "characteristic" behavior during repeated large earthquakes--that is, the magnitude, distribution, and style of slip on the fault has repeated during two or more consecutive events. In two cases faults exhibit slip functions that vary little from earthquake to earthquake. In one other well-documented case, however, fault lengths contrast markedly for two consecutive ruptures, but the amount of offset at individual sites was similar. Adjacent individual patches, 10 km or more in length, failed singly during one event and in tandem during the other. More complex cases of repetition may also represent the failure of several distinct patches. The faults of the 1992 Landers earthquake provide an instructive example of such complexity. Together, these examples suggest that large earthquakes commonly result from the failure of one or more patches, each characterized by a slip function that is roughly invariant through consecutive earthquake cycles. The persistence of these slip-patches through two or more large earthquakes indicates that some quasi-invariant physical property controls the pattern and magnitude of slip. These data seem incompatible with theoretical models that produce slip distributions that are highly variable in consecutive large events.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Instability of signaling resolution models of parent–offspring conflict

Recent signaling resolution models of parent–offspring conflict have provided an important framework for theoretical and empirical studies of communication and parental care. According to these models, signaling of need is stabilized by its cost. However, our computer simulations of the evolutionary dynamics of chick begging and parental investment show that in Godfray’s model the signaling equilibrium is evolutionarily unstable: populations that start at the signaling equilibrium quickly depart from it. Furthermore, the signaling and nonsignaling equilibria are linked by a continuum of equilibria where chicks above a certain condition do not signal and we show that, contrary to intuition, fitness increases monotonically as the proportion of young that signal decreases. This result forces us to reconsider much of the current literature on signaling of need and highlights the need to investigate the evolutionary stability of signaling equilibria based on the handicap principle.

Folding protein models with a simple hydrophobic energy function: The fundamental importance of monomer inside/outside segregation

The present study explores a “hydrophobic” energy function for folding simulations of the protein lattice model. The contribution of each monomer to conformational energy is the product of its “hydrophobicity” and the number of contacts it makes, i.e., E(h⃗, c⃗) = −Σi=1N cihi = −(h⃗.c⃗) is the negative scalar product between two vectors in N-dimensional cartesian space: h⃗ = (h1, … , hN), which represents monomer hydrophobicities and is sequence-dependent; and c⃗ = (c1, … , cN), which represents the number of contacts made by each monomer and is conformation-dependent. A simple theoretical analysis shows that restrictions are imposed concomitantly on both sequences and native structures if the stability criterion for protein-like behavior is to be satisfied. Given a conformation with vector c⃗, the best sequence is a vector h⃗ on the direction upon which the projection of c⃗ − c̄⃗ is maximal, where c̄⃗ is the diagonal vector with components equal to c̄, the average number of contacts per monomer in the unfolded state. Best native conformations are suggested to be not maximally compact, as assumed in many studies, but the ones with largest variance of contacts among its monomers, i.e., with monomers tending to occupy completely buried or completely exposed positions. This inside/outside segregation is reflected on an apolar/polar distribution on the corresponding sequence. Monte Carlo simulations in two dimensions corroborate this general scheme. Sequences targeted to conformations with large contact variances folded cooperatively with thermodynamics of a two-state transition. Sequences targeted to maximally compact conformations, which have lower contact variance, were either found to have degenerate ground state or to fold with much lower cooperativity.

Blood flow and oxygen delivery to human brain during functional activity: Theoretical modeling and experimental data

Coupling of cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral metabolic rate for oxygen (CMRO2) in physiologically activated brain states remains the subject of debates. Recently it was suggested that CBF is tightly coupled to oxidative metabolism in a nonlinear fashion. As part of this hypothesis, mathematical models of oxygen delivery to the brain have been described in which disproportionately large increases in CBF are necessary to sustain even small increases in CMRO2 during activation. We have explored the coupling of CBF and oxygen delivery by using two complementary methods. First, a more complex mathematical model was tested that differs from those recently described in that no assumptions were made regarding tissue oxygen level. Second, [15O] water CBF positron emission tomography (PET) studies in nine healthy subjects were conducted during states of visual activation and hypoxia to examine the relationship of CBF and oxygen delivery. In contrast to previous reports, our model showed adequate tissue levels of oxygen could be maintained without the need for increased CBF or oxygen delivery. Similarly, the PET studies demonstrated that the regional increase in CBF during visual activation was not affected by hypoxia. These findings strongly indicate that the increase in CBF associated with physiological activation is regulated by factors other than local requirements in oxygen.